1QFY2018 Result Update | Automobile
24 July 2017
Bajaj Auto
ACCUMULATE
CMP
`2,815
Performance Highlights
Target Price
`3,151
Y/E March (` cr)
Q1FY18
Q1FY17
% chg (yoy) Q4FY17
% chg (qoq)
Investment Period
12 Months
Net Sales
5,442
5,748
-5.3
4,897
11.1
EBITDA
938
1,176
-20.2
906
3.6
Stock Info
EBITDA Margin (%)
17.2
20.5
-322 bp
18.5
-126 bp
Sector
Automobile
Adj. PAT
956
978
-2.3
802
19.2
Market Cap (` cr)
81,457
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net Debt (` cr)
(88.4)
Beta
0.9
Results below estimates on weak sales: Bajaj Auto reported weak Q1 result due to
52 Week High / Low
3,122/2,510
lower volumes sold in the quarter and higher RM cost. Revenue and EBITDA were
Avg. Daily Volume
31,565
1.5% and 13% below the consensus estimates respectively. Though PAT beat the
Face Value (`)
10
street estimates by 2%, this was due to 71% jump in the other income (dividend by
BSE Sensex
32,029
KTM). Net sales and PAT declined by 5% (yoy) and 6% (yoy) respectively to
Nifty
9,915
`5,442cr and `524cr. EBITDA declined by 20% (yoy) to `938cr due to sharp
increase in RM costs. EBITDA margin was at 17.2% vs. 18.5% in 4QFY17 and
Reuters Code
BAJA NS
20.5% in 1QFY17. PAT declined by 5.5% (yoy), slower than decline in operating
Bloomberg Code
BJAUT IN
profit due to steep increase in other income. Adjusted for `32cr exceptional
expenses (GST led dealer compensation), Q1 PAT is at
`956cr. Blended
Shareholding Pattern (%)
realization was at `59,976 showing a yoy growth of 5.7% and qoq decline of
Promoters
49.3
1.7%. RM cost per vehicle accelerated by 10% yoy (faster than realization)
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
8.3
reflecting higher RM prices. In the nutshell, the GST led destocking by the dealers
FII / NRIs / OCBs
17.5
in June and higher RM costs led to the weak results during this quarter.
Indian Public / Others
24.9
The company has guided of pick up in volumes in the remainder of the year. It
has indicated of a monthly run rate of ~21,000 in domestic 3Ws in 2Q/3Q of
Abs. (%)
3m 1yr 3yr
FY18 while in exports, it expects to clock ~1.8mn export sales volumes despite
volatility in the markets. Company is likely to announce a deal with a premium
Sensex
9.1
14.7
24.5
segment motorcycle manufacturer in next two weeks which needs to be watched
Bajaj Auto
0.2
1.7
35.9
carefully. There will be no new launches in FY18E and company expects ~19.5%-
20% EBITDA margin in FY18E vs. >20% margins FY16 and FY17 each.
Outlook and valuation: We expect Bajaj Auto to report 13.3%/12.5% CAGR in
sales/PAT over the next two years and maintain ROE over ~22%. We value Bajaj
Auto at 18.0x of FY19E EPS to `2,845/share and add KTM stake value of
`139/share. We derive a target price of `3,151 with an accumulate rating.
Key financials (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Net Sales
21,612
22,688
21,767
23,936
27,955
% chg
7.3
5.0
(4.1)
10.0
16.8
Net Profit
3,154
3,652
3,828
4,163
4,842
% chg
(2.8)
15.8
4.8
8.8
16.3
OPM (%)
19.0
21.1
20.3
19.5
20.1
EPS (Rs)
97.2
126.2
132.3
142.7
167.3
P/E (x)
29.0
22.3
21.3
19.7
16.8
P/BV (x)
7.6
6.1
4.8
4.3
3.8
RoE (%)
26.3
27.5
22.5
21.7
22.8
RoCE (%)
35.4
33.2
23.9
22.7
24.6
EV/Sales (x)
3.8
3.6
3.7
3.4
2.9
Shrikant Akolkar
EV/EBITDA (x)
19.7
16.9
18.4
17.4
14.4
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6846
[email protected]
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of July 21, 2017
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 1: Quarterly financial performance (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr)
Q1FY18
Q1FY17
% chg (yoy)
Q4FY17
% chg (qoq)
Total operating income
5,442
5,748
-5.3
4,897
11.1
Raw material consumption
3,809
3,863
-1.4
3,320
14.7
% of total operating inhume
70.0
67.2
67.8
Employee expense
273
268
1.6
227
19.9
% of total operating income
5.0
4.7
4.6
Other expenditure
422
441
-4.2
444
-4.9
% of total operating income
7.8
7.7
9.1
Total expenditure
4,504
4,572
-1.5
3,991
12.8
% of total operating income
83
80
82
EBIDTA
938
1,176
-20.2
906
3.6
EBITDA margin (%)
17.2
20.5
18.5
Depreciation and Ammortisation
75
77
-2.9
76
-0.6
EBIT
863
1,099
-21.4
830
4.0
Other Income
457
267
71.2
294
55.7
Net Interest exp
0
0
9.1
0
0.0
Profit before tax (PBT)
1,320
1,365
-3.3
1,124
17.5
Taxes
364
387
-6.0
322
13.2
% of PBT
27.6
28.4
28.6
Extraordinary income/(expense)
32
0
0
Reported PAT
924
978
-5.5
802
15.2
Adjusted PAT
956
978
-2.3
802
19.2
Equity capital
289
289
289
Reported EPS (`)
33.0
33.8
-2.3
27.7
19.2
Adjusted EPS (`)
33.0
33.8
-2.3
27.7
19.2
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: Quarterly volume performance
Y/E March
1QFY18
1QFY17
% chg (yoy)
4QFY17
% chg (qoq)
Motorcycles (Domestic)
426,562
548,880
-22.3
413,539
3.1
Motorcycles (Exports)
349,152
323,660
7.9
287,478
21.5
Total Motorcycles
775,714
872,540
-18.5
701,017
-20.4
Three wheeler (Domestic)
52,347
75,204
-30.4
50,037
4.6
Three wheeler (Exports)
60,373
46,989
28.5
36,573
65.1
Total Three wheeler
112,720
122,193
-0.7
86,610
-21.3
Overall Domestic
478,909
624,084
-23.3
463,576
3.3
Overall Exports
409,525
370,649
10.5
324,051
26.4
Total volumes
888,434
994,733
-16.4
787,627
-20.5
Source: Company, Angel Research
Bajaj Auto has continued to report decline in the domestic volumes for the
third quarters in row. Domestic volumes at 478,909, declined by 23%.
Exports volumes were at 409,525 grew by 10% yoy, in line with management
expectation of revival in the export volumes. Company has indicated that
July 24, 2017
2
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2018 Result Update
entering in the new countries has been a successful strategy and has helped to
reduce the dependence on high volume countries like Sri Lanka, Nigeria, etc.
Domestic vehicle realisation/unit grew 8% yoy to `68,099, led by the price
hikes. Export realization was at `60,534 per unit, showing a yoy growth of 9%.
Company realized `66.8/USD in 1QFY2018 as against `67.1/USD accrued
in 1QFY2017.
Contribution/vehicle declined by 3% yoy and 8% qoq due to higher material
costs and weak sales.
Blended realization was at `59,976/vehicle showing a yoy growth of 5.7%
and qoq decline of 1.7%.
Exhibit 3: Domestic 2W volumes decline by 22% yoy
Exhibit 4: Exports showing a recovery
700,000
30.0
400,000
10.0
600,000
20.0
350,000
300,000
0.0
500,000
10.0
250,000
400,000
0.0
200,000
(10.0)
300,000
(10.0)
150,000
200,000
(20.0)
100,000
(20.0)
100,000
(30.0)
50,000
0
(30.0)
Domestic 2W volumes
yoy growth
Export two-wheelers
yoy growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: 3W volumes remain subdued
Exhibit 6: Blended realizations and contribution decline
200,000
30.0
64,000
22,000
20.0
62,000
21,000
150,000
10.0
60,000
20,000
0.0
58,000
100,000
19,000
(10.
56,000
18,000
(20.
54,000
50,000
(30.
52,000
17,000
0
(40.
50,000
16,000
Realisation/vehicle (`)
Contribution/vehicle (`)
Three wheelers
yoy growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
Source: Company, Angel Research
Due to the higher material costs and overheads, the company has seen
weakest EBITDA margins in the last 11 quarters. Company has now seen
consistent decline in the margins since 2QFY17 (21.4%) to 17.2% in the
1QFY18.
July 24, 2017
3
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2018 Result Update
During the quarter company paid `32cr to the dealers as compensation to
clear the stocks on account of GST. The 1QFY18 PAT is at `924cr vs. `978cr
in 1QFY17. This was due to higher other income to the tune of `457cr, up
71% yoy.
Exhibit 7: Operating margin lowest in 11 quarters
Exhibit 8: Other income boosts adj. PAT
1,400
25
1,200
20
1,200
1,000
22
18
1,000
800
19
16
800
600
600
16
14
400
400
13
12
200
200
0
10
0
10
EBIDTA (` cr)
EBIDTA Margin %
PAT (` cr)
PAT Margin %
Source: Company, Angel Research
Source: Company, Angel Research
Company has indicated that here will be no new product launches in FY18E.
Company expects to see momentum in the 3W business on the back of the
new permits in Maharashtra and Delhi, the diesel vehicle ban in Bangalore
and mandatory transition from 2-stroke to 4-stroke vehicles in Karnataka.
Exhibit 9: Export Realisation trend
Exhibit 10: Exports recover, domestic volumes decline
60
69
67.5
67.7
67.1
67.1
67.1
66.8
40
66.0
65.2
66
20
63.9
62.8
0
63
(20)
(40)
60
(60)
2W Domestic growth (%)
2W Exports growth (%)
Export Realisation (INR/USD)
3W Domestic growth (%)
3W Exports growth (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 24, 2017
4
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Conference call - Key highlights
During the quarter, company has seen expiry of the fiscal incentives at its
Pantnagar plant. This plant represents ~33% of its motorcycle capacity.
Company expects a run rate of ~25,000 units in V model and ~12,000-
15,000 units in the Avenger models.
As per company, industry is expected to see 7% growth in volumes this fiscal.
During the remainder of FY18E, Bajaj Auto expects growth of 10%, on
conservative basis. Company is expecting EBITDA margins of 19.5-20% for full
year FY18E.
Company has given a guidance of average 20,000-21,000 3W unit sales
each month from July to December. This is expected on account of
1)
Maharashtra opening auto rickshaw permits, execution of 10,000 permits in
Delhi, mandatory conversion of 2-stroke to 4-stroke vehicles in Karnataka and
ban on diesel vehicles in Bangalore.
In the exports, company expects 1.6mn vehicles and by H1FY18E it expects to
exports ~0.8mn vehicles, however company has acknowledged of the volatile
market conditions in its exports segment.
The sales were impacted during the quarter due the destocking by the dealers
and company expects sales to normalize going ahead. The dealer level
inventory was at ~1,50,000 units by the end of 1QFY18 and company keeps
inventory or ~4-4.5 weeks with the dealers. Company paid `32cr to its
dealers on the stock that dealers held until end of June to compensate the
losses arising due to the GST implementation.
Bajaj Auto, on 24th May, has taken the price hike (Rs 500-1,000 in 2W
segment and Rs 1,500-2,000 in CV segment) which covers about 90% of price
increase in the raw materials. The ambit of the price hike was only limited to
the GST and input prices hence the hike is not expected to boost the
profitability of the company. There were no discounts owing to the GST. In the
exports segment, company has taken a price hike effective form 1st July for
both 2W and 3W.
Company during the quarter maintained profitability 64% of business i.e.
exports, three wheelers, and KTM segments, however in the motorcycle
segment (36% of the business) profitability took a significant hit due to the
overheads. Company has indicated that overall profitability was maintained in
April 2017 and May 2017 however due to GST, June saw the most severe
impact.
Management has indicated that a deal with a motorcycle company is awaited
however decline to comment further on this. It also expects to launch a electric
3W within the next year and said that it will require minimum cost.
July 24, 2017
5
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Investment arguments
Significant market share and diversified product offerings - Bajaj Auto is a
diversified automobile manufacturer with presence in 2W/3W categories. In
the 2W segment, company has presence in the entry level (price segment -
Platina and CT-100), premium (Pulsar and Avenger), Value (V series) and
Super sports (KTM, Ninja, RS200, Dominor-400) while in 3W it has presence
across both PV and CV categories. In the 2W category, company has a
market share of 18%, in the vehicles like Platina and CT100 (100cc category),
company has market share of ~32% by end of FY17. In the 3W - CV
category, company has a market share of 49.5% in FY17 and in the petrol /
alternate fuel category, it has market share of 88% and in the diesel category,
market share stands at 34%. Company exports both 2W and CV and which
constitute ~40% of its total volumes and 35% of its sales.
Healthy operating performance despite weak volumes- Bajaj Auto has
maintained a healthy operating performance despite weak volume growth. In
FY16 and FY17, when volume growth was weak the company recorded
EBITDA margins of more than 20% and ROE level more than 20%. The ROIC
levels also remain healthy.
Industry expected to grow in FY18E- The domestic 2W industry grew by 6.9%
in FY17 vs. 3% in FY16. The 3W industry growth declined to 4.9% in FY17 vs.
just 1% growth in FY16. This year, 2W industry is expected to continue to the
growth momentum on the back of the normal monsoon, lower interest rates
and strong consumption trend. The 3W industry is expected to see revival due
to the new licenses issuance in Maharashtra, and Delhi as well as mandatory
conversion of 2-stroke vehicles to 4-stroke vehicles in Karnataka and ban on
diesel vehicles in Bangalore. We believe that Automobile industry is currently
in good shape and is expected to see growth in FY18E.
July 24, 2017
6
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Outlook and valuation
We expect Bajaj Auto to report 13.3%/12.5% CAGR in sales/PAT over the next two
years and maintain ROE levels over ~22%. We value Bajaj Auto at 17x of FY19E
EPS to `2,845/share and add KTM stake value of `139/share. We derive a target
price of `3,151 with an accumulate rating.
Exhibit 11: Key assumptions - Volumes
Y/E March (` cr)
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18E
FY19E
Motorcycles (Domestic)
1,761,474
1,983,206
2,001,391
2,022,585
2,265,301
Motorcycles (Exports)
1,530,610
1,375,046
1,218,541
1,363,820
1,554,761
Total Motorcycles
3,292,084
3,358,252
3,219,932
3,386,405
3,820,062
Three wheeler (Domestic)
234,345
254,995
253,496
238,420
262,267
Three wheeler (Exports)
284,772
280,334
192,792
235,341
277,709
Total three-wheelers + Quadricycle
519,117
535,329
446,288
473,761
539,976
Total volumes
3,811,201
3,893,581
3,666,220
3,860,166
4,360,038
% chg
-1.5
2.2
-5.8
5.3
12.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
Company background
Bajaj Auto is the one of the largest 2W manufacturer in the country (~18% market
share) and a market leader in the 3W segment (~49.5% market share). Company
has three manufacturing facilities in India, located at Waluj, Chakan and
Pantnagar, with a total installed capacity (2W - 5.4mn and 3W - 0.6mn) of 6.0mn
units. The company is also one of India's largest auto exporters, with exports
forming 40% of volumes in FY2017. Company also has 48% stake in KTM AG,
maker of sports bikes.
July 24, 2017
7
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Profit and loss statement (Standalone)
Y/E March (`cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Total operating income
21,612
22,688
21,767
23,936
27,955
% chg
7.3
5.0
(4.1)
10.0
16.8
Total Expenditure
17,495
17,908
17,344
19,275
22,342
Cost of Materials
14,850
15,057
14,624
16,307
18,971
Personnel
897
918
997
1,131
1,261
Others Expenses
1,748
1,933
1,723
1,836
2,110
EBITDA
4,117
4,780
4,422
4,662
5,613
% chg
0.3
16.1
(7.5)
5.4
20.4
(% of Net Sales)
19.0
21.1
20.3
19.5
20.1
Depreciation& Amortisation
267
307
307
305
339
EBIT
3,849
4,472
4,115
4,357
5,274
% chg
(2.0)
16.2
(8.0)
5.9
(% of Net Sales)
17.8
19.7
18.9
18.2
18.9
Interest & other Charges
6
0
1
1
1
Other Income
582
913
1,222
1,545
1,644
(% of PBT)
13.2
17.0
22.9
26.2
23.8
Recurring PBT
4,425
5,385
5,336
5,901
6,918
% chg
(4.5)
21.7
(0.9)
10.6
17.2
Prior Period & Extra. Exp./(Inc.)
340
-
-
32
-
PBT (reported)
4,085
5,385
5,336
5,869
6,918
Tax
1,271
1,733
1,508
1,738
2,075
(% of PBT)
31.1
32.2
28.3
29.6
30.0
PAT (reported)
2,814
3,652
3,828
4,131
4,842
Add: Share of earnings of asso.
-
-
-
-
-
Less: Minority interest (MI)
-
-
-
-
-
PAT after MI (reported)
2,814
3,652
3,828
4,131
4,842
ADJ. PAT
3,154
3,652
3,828
4,163
4,842
% chg
(2.8)
15.8
4.8
8.8
16.3
(% of Net Sales)
14.6
16.1
17.6
17.4
17.3
Basic EPS (`)
97.2
126.2
132.3
142.7
167.3
Fully Diluted EPS (`)
97.2
126.2
132.3
142.7
167.3
% chg
(13.3)
29.8
4.8
7.9
16.3
July 24, 2017
8
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Balance sheet statement (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital
289
289
289
289
289
Reserves& Surplus
10,403
12,977
16,745
18,705
20,943
Shareholders’ Funds
10,692
13,267
17,034
18,994
21,232
Minority Interest
-
-
-
-
-
Total Loans
194
206
205
179
188
Deferred Tax Liability
142
203
314
314
314
Other Liabilities
58
30
49
70
82
Total Liabilities
11,086
13,706
17,602
19,557
21,817
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block
4,101
4,301
4,570
4,922
5,471
Less: Acc. Depreciation
2,184
2,365
2,672
2,977
3,316
Net Block
1,917
1,936
1,899
1,945
2,154
Capital Work-in-Progress
102
27
11
11
11
Intangibles
153
115
76
76
76
Other non-current assets
511
743
757
786
908
Noncurrent Investments
3,353
8,941
8,681
9,384
10,963
Current Investments
5,801
1,320
6,050
6,050
6,050
Investments
Current Assets
3,726
3,405
3,341
4,376
4,866
Inventories
814
719
728
836
1,051
Sundry Debtors
717
718
953
964
1,126
Cash
586
860
294
699
770
Loans & Advances
1,262
60
270
938
1,096
Other Assets
347
1,049
1,096
938
822
Current liabilities
4,477
2,781
3,213
3,071
3,212
Net Current Assets
(751)
624
129
1,305
1,655
Deferred Tax Asset
-
-
-
-
-
Misc. Exp. not written off
-
-
-
-
-
Total Assets
11,086
13,706
17,602
19,557
21,817
July 24, 2017
9
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Cash flow statement (Standalone)
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March (`cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E FY2019E
Profit before tax
4,085
5,547
5,336
5,869
6,918
Depreciation
267
307
307
305
339
Change in Working Capital
(583)
575
253
(800)
(401)
Interest / Dividend (Net)
6
90
1
0
0
Direct taxes paid
(1,285)
(1,782)
(1,503)
(1,738)
(2,075)
Others
(343)
(1,080)
(1,055)
0
1
Cash Flow from Operations
2,147
3,657
3,339
3,636
4,782
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets
(270)
(265)
(199)
(352)
(548)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments
(145)
246
(3,489)
(703)
(1,579)
Cash Flow from Investing
(414)
(19)
(3,688)
(1,054)
(2,127)
Issue of Equity
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
0
0
0
(6)
22
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(1,691)
(3,434)
(202)
(2,170)
(2,604)
Interest / Dividend (Net)
(6)
(0)
(1)
0
0
Others
64.26
69.86
-13.89
0
-1
Cash Flow from Financing
(1,633)
(3,364)
(217)
(2,176)
(2,584)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
100
274
(566)
405
71
Opening Cash balances
486
586
860
294
699
Closing Cash balances
586
860
294
699
770
July 24, 2017
10
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Key ratios
Y/E March
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E FY2019E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
29.0
22.3
21.3
19.7
16.8
P/CEPS
26.4
20.6
19.7
18.4
15.7
P/BV
7.6
6.1
4.8
4.3
3.8
Dividend yield (%)
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.7
3.2
EV/Sales
3.8
3.6
3.7
3.4
2.9
EV/EBITDA
19.7
16.9
18.4
17.4
14.4
EV / Total Assets
5.2
4.9
3.9
3.6
3.2
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
97.2
126.2
132.3
142.7
167.3
EPS (fully diluted)
97.2
126.2
132.3
142.7
167.3
Cash EPS
106.5
136.8
142.9
153.3
179.1
DPS
50.0
55.0
55.0
75.0
90.0
Book Value
369.5
458.5
588.7
656.4
733.8
Returns (%)
ROCE
35.4
33.2
23.9
22.7
24.6
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
90.7
40.1
38.1
35.3
36.3
ROE
26.3
27.5
22.5
21.7
22.8
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
5.3
5.3
4.8
4.9
5.1
Inventory / Sales (days)
14
12
12
13
14
Receivables (days)
12
12
16
15
15
Payables (days)
30
33
38
35
30
Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days)
(4)
(10)
(9)
(7)
(1)
July 24, 2017
11
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
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and Portfolio Manager with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking Private Limited is a
registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration number
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/dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public
offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
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decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should
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contrary view, if any.
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Bajaj Auto
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
July 24, 2017
12