1QFY2017 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
August 25, 2016
Aurobindo Pharma
ACCUMULATE
CMP
`788
Performance Highlights
Target Price
`877
Y/E march (` cr)
1QFY17 4QFY16
% chg (QoQ) 1QFY16
% chg (yoy)
Investment Period
12 months
Net sales
3,664
3,675
(0.3)
3,242
13.0
Other income
78
93
(15.9)
86
(9.5)
Stock Info
Operating profit
828
810
2.1
668
23.8
Interest
14
21
(33.9)
31
(56.7)
Sector
Pharmaceutical
Adj. Net profit
585
562
4.1
472
23.8
Market Cap (` cr)
43,086
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net debt (` cr)
3,265
Beta
1.0
For 1QFY2017, the company’s sales came in at `3,664cr V/s `3,900cr
52 Week High / Low
892/582
expected and V/s `3,664cr in 1QFY2017, a yoy growth of 13.0%, mainly
Avg. Daily Volume
166,432
driven by formulations. Formulations (`3,032cr) posted a yoy growth of
Face Value (`)
1
15.9% and constituted around 80% of overall sales, while API (`735cr)
BSE Sensex
26,636
posted a yoy growth of 1.6%. On the operating front, the EBITDA margin
came in at 22.6% V/s 22.8% expected and V/s 20.6% in 1QFY2016. The yoy
Nifty
8,170
improvement in the operating margin was on the back of gross margin
Reuters Code
ARBN.BO
expansion (55.3% in 1QFY2017 V/s 53.4% in 1QFY2016). Thus, the Adj. net
Bloomberg Code
[email protected]
profit came in at `585cr V/s `576cr expected and V/s `472cr in 1QFY2016.
We maintain our Accumulate rating.
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Sales marginally lower than expected: For 1QFY2017, the company’s sales
Promoters
53.8
came in at `3,664cr V/s `3,900cr expected and V/s `3,664cr in 1QFY2017, a
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
10.5
yoy growth of 13.0%, mainly driven by formulations. Formulations (`3,032cr)
FII / NRIs / OCBs
26.6
posted a yoy growth of 15.9% and constituted around 80% of overall sales, while
Indian Public / Others
9.1
API (`735cr) posted a yoy growth of 1.6%. On the operating front, the EBITDA
margin came in at 22.6% V/s 22.8% expected and V/s 20.6% in 1QFY2016. The
yoy improvement in the operating margin was on the back of gross margin
Abs. (%)
3m 1yr
3yr
expansion (55.3% in 1QFY2017 V/s 54.6% in 1QFY2016). Thus, the Adj. net
Sensex
9.4
(0.0)
50.9
profit came in at `585cr V/s `576cr expected and V/s `472cr in 1QFY2016.
Aurobindo
8.3
67.0
609.0
Outlook and valuation: We estimate the company’s net sales to log a 15.1%
CAGR over FY2016-18E to `18,078cr on back of US formulations, which will be
3-year daily price chart
supplemented through the recent acquisitions of the Western European
900
800
formulation businesses of Actavis and US’ Natrol. The acquisitions have also led
700
Aurobindo Pharma (APL) to become a >US$2bn sales company, with ~80% of
600
500
sales being accounted by formulations. We recommend a Accumulate rating.
400
300
Key financials (Consolidated)
200
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
100
Net sales
12,043
13,651
15,720
18,078
0
% chg
49.8
13.3
15.2
15.0
Adj. Net profit
1,619
1,982
2,418
2,763
% chg
21.5
22.4
22.0
14.2
Source: Company, Angel Research
EPS (`)
27.7
33.9
41.4
47.3
EBITDA margin (%)
20.6
21.7
23.7
23.7
P/E (x)
28.4
23.2
19.0
16.6
RoE (%)
36.4
32.5
29.6
26.1
RoCE (%)
25.3
24.8
24.0
22.5
P/BV (x)
4.5
6.5
4.9
3.9
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
EV/Sales (x)
2.2
3.6
3.1
2.7
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6806
EV/EBITDA (x)
10.6
16.6
13.3
11.5
[email protected]
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of August 24, 2016
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Aurobindo Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 1QFY2017 performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
1QFY2017
4QFY2016
% chg (QoQ) 1QFY2016
% chg (YoY)
FY2016 FY2015
% chg (YoY)
Net sales
3,664
3,675
(0.3)
3,242
13.0
13,651
12,043
13.3
Other income
78
93
(15.9)
86
(9.5)
314
158
98.5
Total income
3,742
3,767
(0.7)
3,328
12.4
13,964
12,201
14.5
Gross profit
2,027
2,048
(1.0)
1,730
17.2
7,493
6,538
14.6
Gross margins
55.3
55.7
53.4
54.9
54.3
Operating profit
828
810
2.1
668
23.8
2,960
2,486
19.1
OPM (%)
22.6
22.1
20.6
21.7
20.6
Interest
14
21
(33.9)
31
(56.7)
159
84
89.0
Dep & amortisation
106
111
(4.5)
89
19.4
393
333
17.9
PBT
786
771
1.9
634
23.9
2,722
2,227
22.2
Provision for taxation
201
210
(4.2)
163
22.9
744
597
24.7
Net profit
585
561
4.1
471
24.3
1,978
1,630
21.4
Less : Exceptional items (gains)/loss
-
(1)
-
(4)
60
-
MI & share in associates
(1)
-
-
(2)
-
-
-
PAT after Exceptional items
585
563
3.9
472
23.8
1,982
1,576
25.8
Adjusted PAT
585
562
4.1
472
23.8
1,979
1,620
22.2
EPS (`)
10.0
9.6
8.1
33.9
27.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: Actual v/s Estimate
(` cr)
Actual
Estimate
Variation %
Net sales
3,664
3,900
(6.1)
Other operating income
78
29
167.5
Operating profit
828
889
(6.9)
Tax
201
210
(4.2)
Adj. Net profit
585
576
1.6
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue up 13.0% yoy; marginally lower than our expectation: For 1QFY2017,
sales came in at `3,664cr V/s `3,900cr expected and V/s `3,242cr in 1QFY2016,
a yoy growth of 13.0%, mainly driven by formulations. Formulations (`3,032cr)
posted a yoy growth of 15.9% and constituted around 80% of overall sales, while
API (`735cr) posted a yoy growth of 1.6%. The US business, which contributed
45% to the gross sales, witnessed a 20.5% yoy growth in 1QFY2017. This is due to
the new launches in the oral and injectable segment.
In the formulation segment, the US (`1,704cr) posted a yoy growth of 20.5%,
while Europe & ROW (`1,026cr) posted a yoy growth of 13.1%. ARV (`303cr)
posted a yoy growth of 2.6%. Overall, formulations now contribute around 80.0%
of sales, while the balance is accounted by APIs. The company has 269 approved
ANDAs including 41 tentative approvals.
During 1QFY2017, the company filed 5 ANDAs with the USFDA, i.e. 3 in the oral
category and 2 in the injectable category. The company received 20 ANDA
approvals from the USFDA including 13 final approvals and 7 tentative approvals
during the quarter.
August 25, 2016
2
Aurobindo Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Sales break-up (Consolidated)
(` cr)
1QFY2017
4QFY2016
% chg (qoq)
1QFY2016
% chg (yoy)
FY2016
FY2015
% chg
Formulations
3,033
3,011
0.7
2,616
15.9
11,166
9,559
16.8
US
1,704
1,666
2.3
1414
20.5
6,144
4,832
27.2
Europe & ROW
1,026
1,016
0.9
907
13.1
3,822
3,763
1.6
ARV
303
328
(7.7)
295
2.6
1,200
964
24.5
API
735
775
(5.2)
723
1.6
1,857
1,794
3.5
SSP
495
502
(1.4)
478
3.6
1,366
864
58.1
Cephs
240
273
(12.1)
245
(2.2)
491
930
(47.2)
NPNC
3,767
3,786
(0.5)
3,339
12.8
13,022
11,353
14.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
OPM expands to 22.6%: On the operating front, the EBITDA margin came in at
22.6% V/s 22.8% expected V/s 20.6% in 1QFY2016, mainly driven by gross
margin expansion (55.3% in 1QFY2017 V/s 53.4% in 1QFY2016). Employee costs
and other expenses rose by 18.4% yoy and 6.2% yoy respectively.
Exhibit 4: OPM Trend
23.0
22.6
22.5
22.1
22.0
22.0
21.5
21.8
21.0
20.6
20.5
20.0
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net profit marginally lower than estimate: Thus, the Adj. net profit came in at
`585cr V/s `576cr expected and V/s `472cr in 1QFY2016. The growth in net
profit was on back of expansion in the OPM.
August 25, 2016
3
Aurobindo Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 5: Adj. net profit
700
585
600
562
525
500
451
432
400
300
200
100
0
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
Management takeaways
At the end of 1QFY2017 the company had filed 403 ANDAs, with 228 final
approvals, and 41 tentative approvals.
Unit VII continues to face risk of regulatory action by USFDA which may
negatively impact top-line. However, as we expect new product approvals and
recent launches to result in top-line and profit growth in the near term.
Launch of key injectable products is expected to drive the top-line and expand
margin in FY2017.
R&D as % of sales to be ~4-4.5% in FY2017.
Tax rate to be ~26-27% in FY2017.
Recommendation rationale
US and ARV formulation segments - the key drivers for base business: APL’s
business will primarily be driven by the US and ARV segments on the
formulation front. The company has been an aggressive filer in the US market
with 403 ANDAs filed until 1QFY2017. Amongst peers, APL has emerged as
one of the top ANDA filers. The company has aggressively filed ANDAs in the
last few years and is now geared to reap benefits, even though most of the
filings are for highly competitive products. Going ahead, with US$70bn going
off-patent in the US over the next three years, we believe APL is well placed to
tap this opportunity and is one of the largest generic suppliers. The company
enjoys high market share as it is fully integrated in all its products apart from
having a larger product basket. Also, the company plans to launch
18
injectables in the next 2 years, which would drive its growth and profitability.
The US revenue has grown at a CAGR of 31% over FY2009-2015 to
`4,832cr. Going forward, the US business of the company is expected to post
a CAGR of 15% over FY2016-18E.
Acquisitions to augment growth and improve sales mix: APL announced the
signing of a binding offer to acquire commercial operations in seven Western
European countries from Actavis. The net sales for the acquired businesses
were around EUR320mn in 2013 with a growth rate of over 10% yoy. With
August 25, 2016
4
Aurobindo Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
this, the European sales of the company would now be ~EUR400mn.
Although these businesses are currently loss-making (by around EUR20mn),
APL expects them to return to profitability in combination with its vertically
integrated platform and existing commercial infrastructure.
The acquisition will make APL one of the leading Indian pharmaceutical
companies in Europe with a position in the top 10 in several key markets,
which it plans to leverage to supply or widen its product portfolio through
introduction of its own products, especially high margin products like
injectiables.
Also, in December 2014, Aurobindo USA, spent US$132.5mn to acquire the
assets of Natrol with an agreement to take on certain liabilities. With this
acquisition, the company gets an entry into the nutraceutical markets.
Aurobindo USA believes that Natrol is an excellent strategic fit and provides
the right platform for creating a fully-integrated OTC platform in the USA and
in other international markets. Natrol, which manufactures and sells nutritional
supplements in USA and other international market, provides Aurobindo
with-strong brand reputation and presence in a variety of attractive
supplement markets. Natrol has a proven performance in the mass market,
health food and specialty channels, and has existing long term relationships
with key distribution and retail partners. It addresses a broad range of
consumers and has an effective growth strategy to expand market penetration.
Outlook and valuation
We estimate the company’s net sales to log a 15.1% CAGR over FY2016-18E to
`18,078cr on the back of US which accounts for the largest portion of its product
pipeline. This along with the recent acquisitions of the Western European
formulation businesses of Actavis and US’ Natrol, will led APL to become a
>US$2bn sales company, with ~ 80% of sales being accounted by formulations.
We maintain our accumulate rating on the stock.
Exhibit 6: Key assumptions
FY2017E
FY2018E
Sales Growth (%)
15.2
15.0
Operating Margins (%)
23.7
23.7
Capex (`cr)
800
800
Source: Company, Angel Research
August 25, 2016
5
Aurobindo Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 7: One-year forward PE
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
5x
10x
15x
20x
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8: Recommendation summary
Company
Reco
CMP Tgt. price Upside
FY2018E
FY16-18E
FY2018E
(`)
(`)
% PE (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) CAGR in EPS (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
640
-
-
21.0
2.8
13.2
(10.8)
27.5
25.3
Aurobindo Pharma Accumulate
788
877
11.4
16.6
2.7
11.5
18.1
22.5
26.1
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
377
400
6.2
18.8
2.8
12.9
15.8
24.3
26.6
Cipla
Reduce
566
490
(13.4)
20.8
2.6
14.3
20.4
13.5
15.2
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
3,039
-
-
19.3
2.8
11.3
6.9
18.1
17.1
Dishman Pharma
Sell
174
45
(74.1)
15.4
1.8
7.9
3.1
10.3
10.9
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,047
-
-
51.3
6.6
35.1
15.9
35.8
31.8
Indoco Remedies
Sell
317
225
(29.1)
20.3
2.4
13.0
31.5
19.1
19.2
Ipca labs
Buy
544
613
12.7
27.6
1.9
12.5
36.5
8.8
9.4
Lupin
Accumulate
1,521
1,809
18.9
21.9
3.6
13.5
17.2
24.4
20.9
Sanofi India
Neutral
4,311
-
-
25.5
3.2
18.3
21.2
24.9
28.4
Sun Pharma
Buy
771
944
22.4
23.5
4.7
15.2
22.0
33.1
18.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year ending
August 25, 2016
6
Aurobindo Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Company background
Aurobindo Pharma manufactures generic pharmaceuticals and APIs. The
company’s manufacturing facilities are approved by several leading regulatory
agencies like the USFDA, UK MHRA, WHO, Health Canada, MCC South Africa
and ANVISA Brazil among others. The company’s robust product portfolio is
spread over six major therapeutic/product areas encompassing antibiotics,
antiretrovirals, CVS, CNS, gastroenterological, and anti-allergics. The company
has acquired the generic business of Actavis which has made it a US$2bn
company, and a leading company in Europe. With this acquisition, formulations
now contribute around 80% to the company’s sales (as in FY2015).
August 25, 2016
7
Aurobindo Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Profit & loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E FY2018E
Gross sales
5,863
8,198
12,221
13,878
15,959
18,353
Less: Excise duty
80
159
178
227
239
275
Net Sales
5,783
8,038
12,043
13,651
15,720
18,078
Other operating income
72
61
77
245
245
245
Total operating income
5,855
8,100
12,121
13,896
15,965
18,323
% chg
26.5
38.3
49.6
14.6
14.9
14.8
Total Expenditure
4,966
5,968
9,557
10,691
12,001
13,802
Net Raw Materials
2,792
3,606
5,506
6,158
6,288
7,231
Other Mfg costs
578
804
1,204
1,365
1,572
1,808
Personnel
663
832
1,302
1,551
1,783
2,051
Other
932
726
1,545
1,617
2,358
2,712
EBITDA
817
2,071
2,486
2,960
3,718
4,276
% chg
53.2
153.5
20.1
19.1
25.6
15.0
(% of Net Sales)
14.1
25.8
20.6
21.7
23.7
23.7
Depreciation& Amort.
249
313
333
393
532
588
EBIT
568
1,758
2,154
2,567
3,187
3,689
% chg
38.8
209.5
22.5
19.2
24.1
15.7
(% of Net Sales)
9.8
21.9
17.9
18.8
20.3
20.4
Interest & other Charges
131
108
84
159
192
220
Other Income
29
23
81
68
68
68
(% of PBT)
5.3
1.3
3.6
2.5
2.1
1.8
Share in profit of Asso.
-
-
-
-
-
-
Recurring PBT
538
1,735
2,227
2,722
3,309
3,782
% chg
62.3
222.7
28.4
22.2
21.5
14.3
Extraordinary Exp./(Inc.)
163.4
203.1
59.6
-
-
-
PBT (reported)
374
1,532
2,168
2,722
3,309
3,782
Tax
82.7
363.5
596.6
744.4
893.4
1,021.2
(% of PBT)
22.1
23.7
27.5
27.3
27.0
27.0
PAT (reported)
291
1,168
1,571
1,978
2,416
2,761
Less: Minority int. (MI)
(2)
(4)
(5)
(4)
(3)
(2)
PAT after MI (reported)
294
1,172
1,576
1,982
2,418
2,763
ADJ. PAT
432
1,333
1,619
1,982
2,418
2,763
% chg
118.5
208.6
21.5
22.4
22.0
14.2
(% of Net Sales)
5.1
14.6
13.1
14.5
15.4
15.3
Basic EPS (`)
7.4
22.8
27.7
33.9
41.4
47.3
% chg
8.9
208.6
21.5
22.4
22.0
14.2
August 25, 2016
8
Aurobindo Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Balance sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E FY2018E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital
29
29
29
58
58
58
Share Application Money
-
-
-
-
-
-
Reserves & Surplus
2,577
3,721
5,127
6,998
9,246
11,838
Shareholders Funds
2,606
3,750
5,156
7,057
9,304
11,896
Minority Interest
11
26
26
60
57
55
Long-term provisions
9
9
24
24
24
24
Total Loans
3,384
3,769
3,864
4,076
5,500
5,500
Deferred Tax Liability
68
205
211
236
236
236
Total Liabilities
6,069
7,760
9,280
11,452
15,098
17,688
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block
3,316
4,107
6,095
7,195
7,995
8,795
Less: Acc. Depreciation
1,140
1,461
1,794
2,187
2,718
3,306
Net Block
2,175
2,645
3,752
4,865
5,277
5,490
Capital Work-in-Progress
645
310
310
310
310
310
Goodwill
55
76
64
89
89
89
Investments
22
20
20
0
0
0
Long-term loans and adv.
243
789
486
434
434
436
Current Assets
4,128
5,631
8,279
10,001
12,249
15,113
Cash
208
179
469
834
2,089
2,275
Loans & Advances
332
789
692
784
409
1,625
Other
3,587
4,664
7,118
8,383
9,751
11,213
Current liabilities
1,200
1,730
3,634
4,247
3,261
3,750
Net Current Assets
2,928
3,901
4,645
5,755
8,988
11,363
Mis. Exp. not written off
-
18
5
-
-
-
Total Assets
6,069
7,760
9,280
11,452
15,098
17,688
August 25, 2016
9
Aurobindo Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Cash flow statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E FY2018E
Profit before tax
374
1,532
2,168
2,722
3,309
3,782
Depreciation
249
313
333
393
532
588
(Inc)/Dec in Working Capital
(191)
(457)
(757)
(796)
(1,979)
(2,188)
Less: Other income
29
23
81
68
68
68
Direct taxes paid
(83)
(363)
(597)
(744)
(893)
(1,021)
Cash Flow from Operations
321
1,001
1,066
1,507
900
1,093
(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets
(283)
(455)
(1,989)
(1,100)
(800)
(800)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments
(16)
(2)
-
(20)
-
-
Other income
29
23
81
68
68
68
Cash Flow from Investing
(271)
(435)
(1,908)
(1,051)
(732)
(732)
Issue of Equity
-
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
288
385
94
213
1,424
-
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(17)
(102)
(171)
(171)
(171)
(171)
Others
(183)
(879)
1,209
(132)
(167)
(4)
Cash Flow from Financing
88
(596)
1,133
(90)
1,086
(175)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
138
(30)
291
365
1,255
186
Opening Cash balances
71
208
179
469
834
2,089
Closing Cash balances
208
179
469
834
2,089
2,275
August 25, 2016
10
Aurobindo Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Key ratios
Y/E March
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
106.5
34.5
28.4
23.2
19.0
16.6
P/CEPS
42.3
15.4
12.1
19.4
15.6
13.7
P/BV
8.8
6.1
4.5
6.5
4.9
3.9
Dividend yield (%)
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
EV/Sales
4.5
3.3
2.2
3.6
3.1
2.7
EV/EBITDA
32.0
12.8
10.6
16.6
13.3
11.5
EV / Total Assets
4.3
3.4
2.8
4.3
3.3
2.8
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
7.4
22.8
27.7
33.9
41.4
47.3
EPS (fully diluted)
7.4
22.8
27.7
33.9
41.4
47.3
Cash EPS
18.6
51.0
65.4
40.7
50.5
57.4
DPS
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Book Value
89.5
128.8
176.6
120.8
159.3
203.7
Dupont Analysis
EBIT margin
9.8
21.9
17.9
18.8
20.3
20.4
Tax retention ratio
77.9
76.3
72.5
72.7
73.0
73.0
Asset turnover (x)
1.0
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
ROIC (Post-tax)
8.0
20.1
19.2
19.5
20.0
19.2
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
3.2
2.3
1.6
2.9
2.9
2.9
Leverage (x)
1.3
1.1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.3
Operating ROE
14.0
39.5
33.4
28.9
27.1
24.4
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax)
9.9
25.4
25.3
24.8
24.0
22.5
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
11.5
28.5
27.6
27.5
27.9
26.7
ROE
17.5
41.9
36.4
32.5
29.6
26.1
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
1.8
2.2
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.2
Inventory / Sales (days)
98
49
90
95
101
108
Receivables (days)
129
95
93
95
63
63
Payables (days)
78
73
114
119
81
81
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)
159
145
119
119
135
159
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
1.2
1.0
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.3
Net debt to EBITDA
3.9
1.7
1.4
1.1
0.9
0.8
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
4.3
16.3
25.5
16.2
16.6
16.8
August 25, 2016
11
Aurobindo Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Aurobindo Pharma
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
August 25, 2016
12