1QFY2018 Result Update | Agrichemical
August 8, 2017
United Phosphorus
REDUCE
CMP
`887
Performance Highlights
Target Price
820
Y/E March (` cr)
1QFY2018
4QFY2017
% chg (qoq)
1QFY2017
% chg (yoy)
Investment Period
12 months
Net sales
3,723
5341
(30.3)
3452
7.8
Other income
101
147
(31.3)
66
52.0
Stock Info
Gross profit
2204
2569
(14.2)
1852
19.0
Sector
Agrichemical
Operating profit
691
1037
(33.4)
612
12.8
Market Cap (` cr)
45,034
Adj. net profit
491
740
(33.6)
387
27.1
Net Debt (` cr)
3,231
Source: Company, Angel Research,
Beta
1.0
UPL posted good set of numbers for 1QFY2018. Sales came in at `3,723cr v/s.
52 Week High / Low
902/584
`3,644cr, a yoy growth of 7.8%. On operating front, the Gross profit margins
came in at 59.2% v/s. 53.6% in 1QFY2017, which in part aided the OPM to come
Avg. Daily Volume
1,06,314
in at 18.6% v/s. 17.7% in 1QFY2017. The expansion in OPM was lower than the
Face Value (`)
2
expansion in gross profit margins mainly aided by a lower sales growth during the
BSE Sensex
32,325
quarter. Thus, net profit came in at `475cr v/s. `362cr in 1QFY2017, a yoy growth
Nifty
10,066
of 31.2%. Adj. net profit came in at `491cr v/s. `387cr, a yoy growth of 27.1%.
Reuters Code
UNPO.BO
Management maintained FY2018 guidance for 12-15% revenue growth, 50-75
Bloomberg Code
[email protected]
bps Ebitda margin expansion, and a 20-22% effective tax rate. We maintain
recommend a reduce given the valuations.
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters
27.9
Quarterly highlights: UPL posted good set of numbers for 1QFY2018. Sales came
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
14.0
in at `3,723cr v/s. `3,644cr, a yoy growth of 7.8%. On operating front, the Gross
FII / NRIs / OCBs
51.3
profit margins came in at 59.2% v/s. 53.6% in 1QFY2017, which in part aided the
Indian Public / Others
6.8
OPM to come in at 18.6% v/s. 17.7% in 1QFY2017. The expansion in OPM was
lower than the expansion in gross profit margins mainly aided by a lower sales
growth during the quarter. The PBT during the quarter, posted a yoy growth of
Abs. (%)
3m 1yr
3yr
37.2%, aided by a 52.0% yoy growth in other income (`101cr v/s. `66cr in
Sensex
8.0
16.6
25.7
1QFY2017). Thus, net profit came in at `475cr v/s. `361cr in 1QFY2017, a yoy
UPL
10.3
47.3
165.1
growth of 31.6%. Adj. net profit came in at `491cr v/s. `387cr a yoy growth of
27.1%.
Outlook and Valuation: We expect UPL to post a CAGR of 16.0% and 13.3% in its
3-year price chart
sales and PAT respectively over FY2017-19E. At the current market price, we
recommend a reduce, given the valuations.
Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Total revenue
14,048
16,312
18,922
21,949
% chg
17.9
16.1
16.0
16.0
Adj. profit
1,051
1,800
1,834
2,310
% chg
(8.3)
71.3
1.9
25.9
EBITDA (%)
16.1
17.8
18.0
18.5
Source: Company, Angel Research
EPS (`)
24.5
35.5
36.2
45.6
P/E (x)
36.2
25.0
24.5
19.5
P/BV (x)
6.5
6.1
5.1
4.2
RoE (%)
17.9
27.1
22.7
23.8
RoCE (%)
15.4
19.1
19.8
21.6
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
EV/Sales (x)
3.4
2.9
2.5
2.1
+91-22-3935 7800 ext. 6806
EV/EBITDA (x)
21.4
16.3
13.9
11.3
[email protected]
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of August 4, 2017
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 1QFY2018 Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
1QFY2018
4QFY2017
% chg (qoq)
1QFY2017
% chg (yoy)
FY2017
FY2016
% chg
Net sales
3,723
5,341
(30.3)
3,452
7.8
16,312
14,048
16.1
Other income
101
147
(31.3)
66
52.0
444
316
40.5
Total income
3,824
5,488
(30.3)
3,518
8.7
16,755
14,364
16.6
Gross profit
2204
2569
(14.2)
1852
19.0
8496
7268
16.9
Gross margin (%)
59.2
48.1
53.6
52.1
51.7
Operating profit
691
1037
(33.4)
612
12.8
2904
2266
28.2
Operating margin (%)
18.6
19.4
17.7
17.8
16.1
Financial cost
80
213
(62.4)
106
(24.5)
735
704
Depreciation
158
187
(15.3)
169
(6.5)
672
676
-0.6
PBT
554
785
(29.4)
404
37.2
1941
1202
61.5
Provision for taxation
48
56
44
10.1
189
165
14.6
PAT Before Exc. And MI
506
729
(30.6)
360
40.5
1753
1037
69.0
Minority Income/ ( Exp.)
0
1
2
6
12
Income from Associate/ (Exp)
(12)
13
2
(19)
(85)
Extra ordinary Income/( Exp.)
(19)
1
(28)
(73)
(111)
Reported PAT
475
741
(35.9)
362
31.2
1,727
940
83.8
Adjusted PAT
491
740
(33.6)
387
27.1
1800
1051
71.3
EPS (`)
9.7
14.6
9.0
35.5
24.5
Source: Company, Angel Research,
Top-line growth mainly led by ROW & North America
In sales, the company posted gross revenues of `5,341cr v/s. `4,434cr in
4QFY2016, growth of 20.5% yoy. The growth was driven by volume (10% yoy),
while pricing dip was around 1% and exchange gains deducted 3% to the top-line
rise.
In terms of geography - Latin America (`737cr, up 6.0% yoy), India (`1,246cr,
rose by 4%), ROW (`602cr, yoy rise of 9.0%), Europe (`585cr, yoy growth of
4.0%). USA (`681cr), the key market, posted a yoy growth of 7.0%.
Latin America sales grew by 6.0%. Poor commodity prices and high inventories
effecting cash flow and advance purchases in the region. Also, Mexico suffered
severe drought situation in the quarter, leading to 25% replanting of corn.
Indian sales grew lower during the quarter, on the back of the GST
implementation. Company’s vegetable seeds business is facing challenges due to
low prices. During the quarter the company launched 3 new products (1 plant
health product), 4 launches planned for 2QFY2018.
European sales grew 4% during the quarter. Higher beet acreage and extended
season positively impact its herbicide portfolio. Also, its fungicide business was
affected by dry, hot weather in Southern Europe.
August 8, 2017
2
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 2: Sales break-up (Marketwise)
Source: Company
Exhibit 3: Sales performance (including export incentives)
Exhibit 4: Growth break-up
Source: Company, Angel Research
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Volume and realization break-up (yoy)
Source: Company, Angel Research
August 8, 2017
3
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2018 Result Update
EBITDA margin expands
On EBITDA front, the company posted an EBITDA of 18.6% v/s. 17.7% in
1QFY2017. The expansion in OPM was less than the gross margin expansion (was
59.2% v/s. 53.6% in 1QFY2017), on the back of forex losses, which was around
`59cr v/s. `25cr in 1QFY2017.
Exhibit 6: EBITDA margin trend
Source: Company, Angel Research
Adjusted Net Profit grew 27.1% yoy
Along with this, dip of 6.5% in the deprecation, 24.5% dip in the finance expenses
& 52.0% yoy growth in other income aided the PBT to grow by 37.2% yoy.
However, a loss from the Associate of `12cr during the quarter v/s. `2cr profit in
1QFY2017, lead Adj. PAT to come in at `491cr v/s. `387cr in 1QFY2017, growth
of 27.1% yoy.
Exhibit 7: Adjusted PAT trend
Source: Company, Angel Research
August 8, 2017
4
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Invvestment arguments
Innovators dominant in the off-patent space; Generic firms in
a sweet spot
The global agrichemical industry, valued at US$56bn (CY2015), is dominated by
the top six innovators, viz. Bayer, Syngenta, Monsanto, BASF, DuPont and Dow,
which enjoy a large market share of the patented (23%) and off-patent (54%)
market. The top six innovators enjoy a large share of the off-patent market due to
high entry barriers for pure generic players. Thus, of the total pie worth US$30bn,
which is controlled by the top six innovators through proprietary
off-patent products, provides a high-growth opportunity for larger integrated
generic players like UPL.
Generic segment’s market share to increase
The industry registered a CAGR of 3% over 1998-2006, while generic players
outpaced the industry with a CAGR of 6%. Going ahead, given the opportunities
and a drop in the rate of new molecule introduction by innovators, we expect
generic players to continue to outpace the industry’s growth rate and augment
their market share in the overall pie. Historically, global agrichem players have
been logging in-line growth with global GDP. Going ahead, over CY2016-17, the
global economy is expected to grow by 3-4%. Assuming this trend plays out in
terms of growth for the agrichemical industry and the same rate of genericization
occurs, the agrichemical generic industry could log in 6-8% yoy growth during the
period and garner a higher market share.
A global generic play
UPL is the third largest global generic agrichemical player with presence across
major markets including the US, EU, Latin America, and India. Given the high
entry barriers by way of high investments, entry of new players is restricted. Thus,
amidst this scenario and on account of having a low-cost base,
we believe UPL enjoys an edge over competition and is placed in a sweet spot to
leverage the upcoming opportunities in the global generic space.
Advanta - An Entry into seeds business
During FY2016, UPL announced a merger of Advanta with itself. With this, the
company has made its foray into the seed business, thus, widening its business
offerings in the Agri-business. The company had sales of around US$204mn in
2015, with OPM of around 15-16%. It is the 11th largest seeds company globally,
with world leadership in Sorghum. Along with this, it also completes the company’s
business portfolio, in-line with the other major Agri-businesses, who have around
5-20% (Monsanto and DuPont have around 65% of their sales mix through seeds)
of their sales mix through seeds business. While the acquisition improves the
presence of the company in the low capital intensive industry coupled with the
propriety products, which will yield long term profitability; the near term challenges
include high R&D cost coupled with long legislation period for the product
commercialization.
According to the industry numbers, the international seeds sector is growing at 6%
per annum. In value terms, the Indian hybrid seed sector, estimated to be worth
August 8, 2017
5
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2018 Result Update
`12,000cr comprises some 14 states seeds corporations and two national-level
corporations, 20 large players including multinationals and around 500 small
regional players. About 10 domestic and multinational companies control over
80% of the market. The market has been growing at 15-20% annually over the
past several years, and is projected to reach around `18,000cr by 2018. Though
we have included the Advanta numbers in our projections, we have been
conservative on the same.
Outlook and valuation
Over the last few years, the global agriculture sector has been reviving on the back
of rising food prices. Food security is also a top priority for most governments, and
reducing food loss is one of the easiest ways to boost food inventory. Hence, we
believe agrichemical companies would continue to do well in the wake of
heightened food security risks, and strong demand is likely to be witnessed across
the world. Overall, we expect the global agrichemical industry to perform well
from here on. Generics are expected to register a healthy growth due to - (a)
increasing penetration and wresting market share from innovators, and (b) patent
expiries worth US$3bn-4bn during the next five years.
We estimate UPL to post a 16.0% and 13.3% CAGR in sales and PAT respectively
over FY2017-19E. The stock is trading at 19.5x FY2019E EPS, which we believe
provides very little room for appreciation. Hence, we recommend a reduce rating
on the stock.
Exhibit 8: Key assumption
FY2018E
FY2019E
Sales growth
16.0
16.0
EBITDA margin
18.0
18.5
Tax rate
20.0
20.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9: P/E band
Source: Company, Angel Research
August 8, 2017
6
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 10: Peer valuation
Company
Reco
Mcap
CMP
TP
Upside
P/E (x)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)
CAGR (%)
(` cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19 Sales PAT
Rallis
Reduce
4,743
243
209
(14.3)
25.8
23.1
2.1
1.9
13.7
12.4
15.8
16.0
11.5
21.6
UPL
Reduce
45,034
887
820
(8.0)
23.8
19.8
2.4
2.0
13.5
11.3
22.7
23.8
16.0
13.3
Source: Company, Angel Research, Bloomberg, All numbers in FY18 and FY19 are expected numbers
Company background
United Phosphorus (UPL) is a global generic crop protection, chemicals and seeds
company. The company is fully backward and forward integrated by taking
advantage of the consolidation opportunities within the agrochemical industry. UPL
is the largest Indian agrochemical company and had revenue of about `11,911cr
for the year ended March 2015. During FY2016, UPL announced its merger with
Advanta. With this, the company has made its foray into the seed business, thus,
widening its business offerings in the Agri-business.
August 8, 2017
7
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Net Sales
10,580
11,911
14,048
16,312
18,922
21,949
Other operating income
191
45
-
128
128
128
Total operating income
10,771
11,956
14,048
16,440
19,049
22,077
% chg
17.1
11.0
17.5
17.0
15.9
15.9
Total Expenditure
8,751
9,736
11,782
13,407
15,515
17,887
Net Raw Materials
5,441
6,016
6,780
7,816
9,067
10,517
Other Mfg costs
942
842
1,250
1,452
1,646
1,800
Personnel
946
1,043
1,434
1,627
1,887
2,189
Other
1,422
1,835
2,318
2,512
2,914
3,381
EBITDA
1,829
2,175
2,266
2,904
3,407
4,062
% chg
26.8
19.0
4.2
28.2
17.3
19.2
(% of Net Sales)
17.3
18.3
16.1
17.8
18.0
18.5
Dep. & Amortization
407
425
676
672
736
792
EBIT
1,613
1,796
1,590
2,361
2,799
3,398
% chg
26.7
11.4
(11.5)
48.5
18.6
21.4
(% of Net Sales)
15.0
15.0
11.3
14.4
14.7
15.4
Interest & other Charges
487
517
704
735
788
788
Other Income
131
131
316
316
316
316
(% of PBT)
10
9
26
16
14
11
Recurring PBT
1,257
1,410
1,202
1,941
2,327
2,926
% chg
37.1
12.2
(14.8)
61.6
19.9
25.7
Extraordinary Exp./(Inc.)
85
(2)
(111)
(73)
-
-
PBT (reported)
1,172
1,413
1,313
1,941
2,327
2,926
Tax
222
244
165
189
465
585
(% of PBT)
18.9
17.3
12.6
9.7
20.0
20.0
PAT (reported)
950
1,169
1,148
1,753
1,862
2,341
Add: Share of earnings of
30
21
(85)
(19)
(21)
(24)
asso.
Less: Minority interest (MI)
7
43
12
6
6
6
Prior period items
24
-
-
-
-
1
PAT after MI (reported)
950
1,144
940
1,727
1,834
2,310
ADJ. PAT
1,040
1,147
1,051
1,800
1,834
2,310
% chg
38.0
10.2
(8.3)
71.3
1.9
25.9
(% of Net Sales)
9.8
9.6
7.5
11.0
9.7
10.5
Basic EPS (`)
24.3
26.7
24.5
35.5
36.2
45.6
Fully Diluted EPS (`)
24.3
26.7
24.5
35.5
36.2
45.6
% chg
42.5
10.2
(8.3)
44.8
1.9
25.9
August 8, 2017
8
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital
86
86
86
183
183
183
Preference Capital
-
-
-
-
-
-
Reserves& Surplus
5,162
5,775
5,803
7,214
8,590
10,441
Shareholders’ Funds
5,247
5,860
5,889
7,398
8,773
10,625
Minority Interest
172
44
44
33
39
45
Total Loans
2,873
2,781
5,258
6,058
6,058
6,058
Other Long term liab.
311
594
449
446
446
446
Long Term Provisions
53
53
53
-
-
-
Deferred Tax Liability
57
45
(390)
(501)
(501)
(501)
Total Liabilities
8,714
9,378
11,303
13,434
14,815
16,672
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block
6,039
6,792
9,315
10,115
10,915
11,715
Less: Acc. Depreciation
3,580
4,005
5,870
6,542
7,278
8,070
Net Block
2,459
2,787
3,445
2,632
3,637
3,645
Capital Work-in-Progress
378
378
484
484
484
484
Goodwill / Intangilbles
1,212
1,449
417
1,747
1,747
1,747
Investments
737
764
335
379
379
379
Long Term Loan & Adv.
389
418
591
811
664
770
Current Assets
7,572
8,372
11,207
13,657
15,512
18,473
Cash
1,023
1,010
1,189
2,894
3,167
4,404
Loans & Advances
771
586
840
1,380
1,581
1,582
Other
5,779
6,776
9,178
9,383
10,764
12,487
Current liabilities
4,033
4,789
5,176
6,277
7,608
8,825
Net Current Assets
3,539
3,582
6,031
7,380
7,904
9,647
Others
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total Assets
8,714
9,378
11,303
13,434
14,815
16,672
August 8, 2017
9
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Profit before tax
1,172
1,413
1,313
1,941
2,327
2,926
Depreciation
407
425
676
672
736
792
Change in Working Capital
171
(86)
(2,443)
135
(103)
(612)
Less: Other income
-
-
-
-
-
-
Direct taxes paid
(222)
(244)
(165)
(189)
(465)
(585)
Cash Flow from Operations
1,528
1,508
(619)
2,559
2,494
2,521
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets
(653)
(753)
(2,630)
(800)
(800)
(800)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments
-
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./ (Dec.) in loans and adv.
-
-
-
-
-
-
Other income
-
-
-
-
-
-
Cash Flow from Investing
(653)
(753)
(2,630)
(800)
(800)
(800)
Issue of Equity
(3)
-
-
98
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
1,413
(192)
(2,331)
(744)
(0)
(0)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(201)
(214)
(214)
(642)
(458)
(458)
Others
(2,612)
(362)
5,973
1,331
(963)
(25)
Cash Flow from Financing
(1,403)
(768)
3,427
43
(1,421)
(484)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
(525)
(13)
179
1,705
273
1,237
Opening Cash balances
1,548
1,023
1,010
1,189
2,894
3,167
Closing Cash balances
1,023
1,010
1,189
2,894
3,167
4,404
August 8, 2017
10
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
36.6
33.2
36.2
25.0
24.5
19.5
P/CEPS
26.3
24.2
22.0
18.2
17.5
14.5
P/BV
7.2
6.5
6.5
6.1
5.1
4.2
Dividend yield (%)
0.6
0.7
0.7
1.0
1.0
1.0
EV/Sales
4.3
3.8
3.4
2.9
2.5
2.1
EV/EBITDA
25.1
21.0
21.4
16.3
13.9
11.3
EV / Total Assets
5.3
4.9
4.3
3.5
3.2
2.8
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
24.3
26.7
24.5
35.5
36.2
45.6
EPS (fully diluted)
24.3
26.7
24.5
35.5
36.2
45.6
Cash EPS
33.8
36.7
40.3
48.8
50.7
61.2
DPS
4.0
5.0
5.0
7.0
7.0
7.0
Book Value
122.4
136.7
137.4
145.9
173.0
209.6
DuPont Analysis
EBIT margin
15.0
15.0
11.3
14.4
14.7
15.4
Tax retention ratio
81.1
82.7
87.4
90.3
80.0
80.0
Asset turnover (x)
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.9
ROIC (Post-tax)
18.5
20.3
16.0
21.2
20.8
23.3
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
11.2
15.1
15.3
11.7
10.4
10.4
Leverage (x)
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.2
Operating ROE
21.9
22.0
16.3
26.5
24.7
26.5
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax)
17.7
19.9
15.4
19.1
19.8
21.6
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
23.2
24.7
18.3
23.7
26.1
29.3
ROE
21.0
20.6
17.9
27.1
22.7
23.8
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.8
2.0
Inventory / Sales (days)
83
86
84
84
84
84
Receivables (days)
83
86
84
84
84
84
Payables (days)
69
72
68
70
70
71
WCcycle (ex-cash) (days)
92
78
96
104
89
83
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.7
0.4
0.3
Net debt to EBITDA
1.8
1.0
0.8
1.8
1.1
0.8
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
3.3
3.5
2.3
3.2
3.6
4.3
August 8, 2017
11
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
UPL
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
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Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
August 8, 2017
12