1QFY2018 Result Update | IT
August 2, 2017
Tech Mahindra
BUY
CMP
`385
Performance Highlights
Target Price
`533
(` cr)
1QFY18
4QFY17
% chg (QoQ)
1QFY17
% chg (YoY)
Investment Period
12 Months
Net revenue
7,336
7,495
(2.1)
6,921
6.0
EBITDA
935
899
4.0
1,029
(9.2)
Stock Info
EBITDA margin (%)
12.7
12.0
75bp
14.9
(213)bps
Sector
IT
Adj. PAT
798
588
35.8
750
6.5
Market Cap (` cr)
37,589
Source: Company, Angel Research;
Net Debt (` cr)
-6,370
For 1QFY2018 Tech Mahindra posted good set of numbers. The sales came in at
Beta
0.8
US$1,138mn (US$1,127mn expected) v/s. US$1,131mn in 4QFY2017, a qoq
52 Week High / Low
515/358
growth of 0.6%. In Rupee terms, sales came in at `7,336cr (`7,262cr expected)
Avg. Daily Volume
2,93,915
v/s. `7,495cr in 4QFY2017, a qoq dip of 2.1%. On operating front, the EBIT
Face Value (`)
5
margins came in at 9.4% (8.6% expected v/s. 8.2% in 4QFY2017, a qoq
BSE Sensex
32,515
expansion of 117bps, mainly on the back of base effect. Consequently, the PAT
Nifty
10,077
came in at `798cr (`624cr expected) v/s. `588cr in 4QFY2017, a qoq growth of
Reuters Code
TEML.BO
35.8%. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock.
Bloomberg Code
[email protected]
Result highlights: The sales came in at US$1,138mn (US$1,127mn expected)
v/s. US$1,131mn in 4QFY2017, a qoq growth of 0.6%. In Rupee terms, sales
came in at `7,336cr (`7,262cr expected) v/s. `7,495cr in 4QFY2017, a qoq dip
Shareholding Pattern (%)
of 2.1%. The sales growth during the quarter was driven by USA, which
Promoters
36.2
constituted 46.8% of sales in 1QFY2018 v/s. 45.1% in 4QFY2017, while ROW
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
16.7
dipped to 23.4% of sales in 1QFY2018 v/s. 25.3% of sales in 4QFY2017. On
FII / NRIs / OCBs
36.2
operating front, the EBIT margins came in at 9.4% (8.6% expected) v/s. 8.2% in
Indian Public / Others
11.0
4QFY2017, a qoq expansion of 117bps, mainly on the back of base effect.
Consequently, the PAT came in at `798cr (`624cr expected) v/s. `588cr in
4QFY2017, a qoq growth of 35.8%.
Abs.(%)
3m 1yr
3yr
Outlook and valuation: We expect a CAGR of 8.0% and 7.2% in USD and INR
Sensex
8.7
16.1
25.6
revenue respectively over FY2017-19E. The PAT is expected to grow at a
Tech Mahindra
(7.6)
(21.3)
(28.3)
CAGR of 8.6% over FY2017-19E. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with
a Target Price of `533.
3-year price chart
Key financials (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Net sales
26,494
29,141
31,015
33,496
% chg
17.1
10.0
6.4
8.0
Net profit
3,118
2,813
3,102
3,315
% chg
18.7
(9.8)
10.3
6.9
EBITDA margin (%)
16.3
14.4
15.0
15.0
EPS (`)
35.8
32.3
35.6
38.1
P/E (x)
10.6
11.7
10.7
10.0
P/BV (x)
2.3
2.0
1.8
1.6
Source: Company, Angel Research
RoE (%)
21.4
17.1
17.0
16.3
RoCE (%)
20.1
15.6
16.1
15.9
EV/Sales (x)
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
Sarabjit kour Nangra
EV/EBITDA (x)
7.9
8.4
7.5
6.8
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6806
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of July 31, 2017
[email protected]
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Tech Mahindra | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 1QFY2018 performance (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
(` cr)
4QFY17
3QFY17
% chg (qoq)
4QFY16
% chg (yoy)
FY17
FY16
% chg (yoy)
Net revenue
7,336
7,495
(2.1)
6,921
6.0
29,141
26,496
10.0
Cost of revenue
5,282
5,479
(3.6)
4,881
8.2
20,566
18,323
12.2
Gross profit
2,054
2,017
1.9
2,040
0.7
8,575
8,173
4.9
SG&A expense
1,120
1,118
0.2
1,011
10.7
4,390
3,853
13.9
EBITDA
935
899
4.0
1,029
(9.2)
4,184
4,320
(3.1)
Dep. and amortization
247
284
(12.9)
202
22.2
978
762
28.4
EBIT
688
615
11.8
827
(16.8)
3,206
3,558
(9.9)
Interest
37
32
16.4
27
37.0
134
96
39.4
Other income
411
238
72.6
246
67.0
950
557
70.6
PBT
1,062
821
29.3
1,046
1.5
4,023
4,017
0.1
Income taxes
270
232
16.5
247
9.2
1,002
860
16.5
PAT
792
590
34.3
799
(0.9)
3,021
3,157
(4.3)
Minority interest
0
0
-
46
(99.7)
-
39
PAT after minority interest
792
590
34.3
753
5.1
3,021
3,118
(3.1)
Profit from associates
7
2
(2)
(40)
-
Exceptional item
-
-
-
-
-
Reported PAT
798
588
35.8
750
6.5
2,980
3,118
(4.4)
Adj. PAT
798
588
35.8
750
6.5
2,980
3,118
(4.4)
Diluted EPS
8.3
6.1
35.8
7.8
6.5
31.0
32.4
(4.4)
Gross margin (%)
28.0
26.9
110bp
29.5
(147)bps
29.4
30.8
(142)bp
EBITDA margin (%)
12.7
12.0
75bp
14.9
(213)bps
14.4
16.3
(195)bp
EBIT margin (%)
9.4
8.2
117bp
11.9
(257)bps
11.0
13.4
(243)bp
PAT margin (%)
10.9
7.8
304bp
10.8
5bps
10.2
11.8
(154)bp
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 1QFY2018 - Actual Vs Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimate
% Var
Net revenue
7,336
7,262
1.0
EBITDA margin (%)
12.7
12.6
10bps
PAT
798
624
27.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue growth led by USA
For 1QFY2018 Tech Mahindra posted good set of numbers. The sales came in at
US$1,138mn (US$1,127mn expected) v/s. US$1,131mn in 4QFY2017, a qoq
growth of 0.6%. In Rupee terms, the sales came in at `7,336cr (`7,262cr expected)
v/s. `7,495cr in 4QFY2017, a qoq dip of 2.1%. On Constant Currency (CC)
terms, the company posted a 0.6% QoQ de-growth during the quarter.
In terms of geography, USA was the major growth driver, it constituted 46.8% of
sales, a qoq growth of 4.4%, while ROW was the key damper constituting 23.4%
of sales, posting a qoq de-growth of 6.9%. Europe, on the other hand posted a
qoq growth of 1.3%.
In terms of the industries, the manufacturing came in at 19% of sales, posting a
qoq growth of 1.1%. BFSI was the main driver, which lead the segment,
contributing around 14.4% of sales, posting a qoq growth of 2.7%. The key
domain Retail, Transport & Logistics, posted a qoq growth of 5.2%. Also, the
Technology, Media & Entertainment, posted a qoq de-growth of 2.6%.
August 2, 2017
2
Tech Mahindra | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Trend in revenue growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Growth in industry segments
Particulars
% to revenue
% growth (QoQ)
% growth (YoY)
Telecom
45.2
(1.8)
1.4
Manufacturing
19.3
1.1
17.6
TME
6.0
(2.6)
(11.7)
BFSI
14.4
2.8
40.6
RTL
6.8
5.3
15.4
Others
8.3
8.4
25.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
In terms of geographies, ROW posted de-growth of 6.9% qoq, while Europe and
US posted a growth of 1.3% and 4.4% qoq respectively.
Exhibit 5: Growth trend in geographies
Particulars
% to revenue
% growth (QoQ)
% growth (YoY)
Americas
46.8
4.4
5.4
Europe
29.8
1.3
16.2
RoW
23.4
(6.9)
13.2
Source: Company, Angel Research
August 2, 2017
3
Tech Mahindra | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Hiring and client metrics
During the quarter, the company reported a net addition of (1,713) employees,
taking its overall headcount to 115,980. The BPO headcount currently stands at
30,322 and was the only division to witness additions. Attrition (on LTM basis) was
at 17%.
Exhibit 6: Employee metrics
Particulars
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
Software professionals
73,590
78,404
80,858
82,403
78,996
BPO professionals
27,326
27,669
29,372
28,414
30,322
Sales & support
6,300
6,813
6,865
6,876
6,662
Total employees
107,216
112,886
117,095
117,693
115,980
Attritions (%)
21
19
18
17
17
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: Trend in utilization rate
Source: Company, Angel Research
The company added 21 new clients during the quarter, taking the active client
base to 864 (v/s. 843 in 4QFY2017), with 5 clients added in US$20mn-50mn+
bracket and other additions mainly in the US$1mn-5mn+ bracket.
During the quarter, deals with a TCV of US$325mn were won, which included a
large networking deal in Communications and a deal in the Manufacturing
vertical.
August 2, 2017
4
Tech Mahindra | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 8: Client metrics
Particulars
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
Total active clients
807
818
837
843
864
US$1mn-5mn
207
197
228
220
238
US$5mn-10mn
49
56
63
63
65
US$10mn-20mn
23
22
27
35
33
US$20mn-50mn
26
28
24
22
27
US$50mn+
14
14
14
14
14
Source: Company, Angel Research
Operating margin expands
On operating front, the EBIT margins came in at 9.4% (8.6% expected) v/s. 8.2%
in 4QFY2017, a qoq expansion of 117bps, mainly on the back of base effect.
Margins were benefited by the absence of one-time costs associated with the LCC
restructuring that negatively impacted margins in the previous quarter. The
company expects continued margin recovery going forward despite an upcoming
wage hike. This would be driven by improvement in LCC margins, improved
utilization & increased thrust on Automation.
Exhibit 9: Margin trend (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Investment arguments
Growth prospects decent: The Management is more optimistic as compared to
what it was at the same time last year. It has also been optimistic about the
prospects of recently acquired entities. On Margin front, the company faces the
usual 1QFY2018 headwinds of visa expenses and Comviva margin contraction.
Any improvement, on back of synergies and productivity gains will only start
reflecting from 2QFY2018. We expect a CAGR of 8.0% and 7.2% in USD and INR
revenue respectively over FY2017-19E. On EBIT front, we expect the EBIT to be
around 15.0% v/s. 14.4% in FY2017.
Inorganic growth initiatives to augment well for company: The company has been
active in the M&A space, with it having acquired Satyam a few years back, to
August 2, 2017
5
Tech Mahindra | 1QFY2018 Result Update
acquiring LCC and Softgen recently. Softgen’s and LCC’s acquisition was
consolidated in 4QFY2015. LCC is one of the world’s largest independent global
providers of network engineering services to the telecommunications industry with
an estimated annual revenues of more than US$400mn (CY2014; the effective
run-rate for the business is pruned down to US$200-220mn annualized), with
workforce of over 5,700 network professionals across five continents and more
than 50 countries. With this acquisition, Tech Mahindra will also be addressing a
rapidly growing market opportunity, as telecommunications companies and
enterprises accelerate their network upgrade cycle.
Outlook and valuation
Given the recent acquisitions and healthy order pipeline, the company is expected
to post a healthy US$ and INR CAGR of 8.0% and 7.2% respectively over FY2017-
19E. However, the acquisition of LCC will be margin dilutive in the near term,
leading the FY2017 EBDITA margin to drop to 14.4% from 16.3% in FY2016. The
company, given its success in turnaround of its earlier acquisition (Satyam),
believes it would be able to do the same with the recent acquisitions and would be
able to get close to achieving the 20% EBIT levels in future. Given the favorable
valuation on EV/sales front, where it trades at a significant discount to its peers, we
believe the stock should witness uptrend once the profitability returns to its mean
average. We maintain a Buy rating on the stock.
Exhibit 10: Key assumptions
FY2018E
FY2019E
Revenue growth (US$)
8.0
8.0
USD-INR rate (realized)
66.7
66.7
Revenue growth (`)
6.4
8.0
EBITDA margin (%)
15.0
15.0
Tax rate (%)
26.0
26.0
EPS growth (%)
10.3
6.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
August 2, 2017
6
Tech Mahindra | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 11: One-year forward PE (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research. Note: P/E includes profits of Mahindra Satyam from FY2012
Exhibit 12: Recommendation summary
Company
Reco
CMP
Tgt Price
Upside
FY2019E
FY2019E
FY2017-19E
FY2019E
FY2019E
(`)
(`)
(%)
EBITDA (%)
P/E (x)
EPS CAGR (%)
EV/Sales (x)
RoE (%)
HCL Tech
Accumulate
889
1,014
14.1
20.9
13.2
6.2
1.8
20.6
Infosys
Buy
1011
1,179
16.6
26.0
14.3
5.3
2.2
19.6
TCS
Accumulate
2,494
2,651
6.3
27.6
16.0
7.8
3.1
29.8
Tech Mahindra
Buy
385
533
38.4
15.0
10.1
8.6
1.0
16.3
Wipro
Buy
289
-
-
20.3
15.2
4.4
1.2
13.4
Source: Company, Angel Research.
Company Background
Tech Mahindra was founded in 1986 as a joint venture between Mahindra Group
and British Telecom (BT) to service the latter. Later on, the company started
servicing other external clients as well (solely in the telecom industry). In June
2009, Tech Mahindra acquired a 42.7% stake in erstwhile Satyam Computers
(now Mahindra Satyam) and now the latter is entirely merged with the company.
The company has recently acquired the companies - LCC and Softgen. These two
acquisitions have been consolidated in 4QFY2015. LCC is one of the world’s
largest independent global providers of network engineering services to the
telecommunications industry. LCC is estimated to have annual revenues of more
than US$400mn (CY2014), with workforce of over 5,700 network professionals
across five continents and more than 50 countries.
August 2, 2017
7
Tech Mahindra | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Profit and loss statement (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Net sales
22,621
26,494
29,141
31,015
33,496
Cost of revenues
15,920
18,323
20,566
21,400
23,112
Gross profit
6,701
8,172
8,575
9,615
10,384
% of net sales
29.6
30.8
29.4
31.0
31.0
SG&A expenses
2,549
3,853
4,390
4,962
5,359
% of net sales
11.3
14.5
15.1
16.0
16.0
EBITDA
4,153
4,318
4,184
4,652
5,024
% of net sales
18.4
16.3
14.4
15.0
15.0
Depreciation and amortization
611
762
978
1054
1139
% of net sales
2.7
2.9
3.4
3.4
3.4
EBIT
3,541
3,556
3,206
3,598
3,886
% of net sales
15.7
13.4
11.0
11.6
11.6
Interest expense
30
96
129
129
129
Other inc., net of forex gain/(loss)
106
557
778
778
778
Profit before tax
3,618
4,017
3,855
4,247
4,535
Provision for tax
960
860
1,002
1,104
1,179
% of PBT
26.5
21.4
26.0
26.0
26.0
PAT
2,659
3,157
2,853
3,143
3,356
Exceptional item
-
-
-
-
-
Minority interest
31
44
40
40
40
Reported PAT
2,628
3,118
2,813
3,102
3,315
Adjusted PAT
2,628
3,118
2,813
3,102
3,315
Fully diluted EPS (`)
30.2
35.8
32.3
35.6
38.1
August 2, 2017
8
Tech Mahindra | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Balance sheet (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Equity capital
480
436
439
439
439
Preference capital
-
-
-
-
-
Share premium
-
-
-
-
-
Profit and loss
11,768
14,155
15,998
17,823
19,861
Other reserves
0
0
0
-
-
Net worth
12,249
14,591
16,438
18,261
20,300
Secured loans
621
1,002
1,219
1,219
1,219
Unsecured loans
54
-
-
-
-
Total debt
675
1,002
1,219
1,219
1,219
Other long term liability
376
147
537
537
537
Long-term provisions
414
531
620
620
620
Minority interest
160
193
464
504
545
Amount pending investigation
895
1,230
1,230
1,230
1,230
Total capital employed
14,768
17,695
20,508
22,372
24,451
Gross block
7,811
7,973
11,677
12,677
13,677
Accumulated dep.
(3,477)
(4,239)
(5,217)
(6,272)
(7,410)
Net block
4,334
4,364
6,460
6,406
6,267
Capital WIP
266
629
373
373
373
Total fixed assets
4,601
4,993
6,833
6,778
6,640
Investments
2,103
1,243
2,396
4,483
6,736
Long term loans and adv.
1,306
1,895
2,435
2,696
3,117
Interest in TML benefit trust
-
-
-
-
-
Deferred tax asset, net
390
532
267
267
267
Other non-current assets
-
0
0
-
-
Inventories
24
40
61
61
61
Sundry debtors
5,206
5,770
5,338
7,980
7,981
Cash and cash equv.
2,405
4,018
3,219
3,500
4,000
Loans and advances
3,813
4,032
5,518
2,999
3,000
Current investments
-
-
-
-
-
Unbilled revenue
-
-
-
-
-
Sundry creditors
(1,654)
(2,276)
(2,312)
(2,658)
(3,057)
Other liabilities
(1,627)
(2,200)
(2,860)
(3,289)
(3,782)
Provision
(1,799)
(355)
(387)
(445)
(512)
Working capital
6,368
9,031
8,577
8,148
7,691
Total capital deployed
14,768
17,695
20,508
22,372
24,451
August 2, 2017
9
Tech Mahindra | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Cash flow statement (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E FY2019E
Pre tax profit from operations
2,659
3,157
2,853
3,143
3,356
Depreciation
611
762
978
1,054
1,139
Exp. (deffered)/written off/others
-
-
-
-
-
Pre tax cash from operations
3,270
3,919
3,831
4,197
4,494
Other income/prior period ad
106
557
778
778
778
Net cash from operations
3,376
4,475
4,609
4,975
5,272
Tax
(960)
(860)
(1,002)
(1,104)
(1,179)
Cash profits
2,417
3,615
3,607
3,871
4,093
(Inc)/dec in
Sundry Debtors
(857)
(565)
433
(2,642)
(1)
Inventories
(15)
(16)
(21)
-
-
Loans and advances
(1,197)
(219)
(1,485)
2,519
(1)
Sundry creditors
105
621
36
347
399
Others
212
573
660
429
493
Net trade working capital
(1,752)
394
(377)
652
890
Cashflow from operating activities
665
4,010
3,230
4,523
4,983
(Inc)/dec in fixed assets
(1,740)
(393)
(1,840)
54
139
(Inc)/dec in investments
(2,067)
860
(1,153)
(2,087)
(2,253)
(Inc)/dec in other non current assets
16
(0)
0
0
-
Cashflow from investing activities
(3,791)
467
(2,992)
(2,033)
(2,114)
Inc/(dec) in debt
(311)
(328)
(217)
-
-
Inc/(dec) in deferred revenue
-
-
-
-
1
Inc/(dec) in equity/premium
1
-
-
0
-
Inc/(dec) in minority interest
(16)
(33)
(271)
(40)
(40)
Dividends
(611)
(1,223)
(917)
(1,278)
(1,277)
Others
1,713
(1,281)
369
(891)
(1,054)
Cashflow from financing activities
775
(2,864)
(1,037)
(2,209)
(2,369)
Cash generated/(utilised)
(2,351)
1,613
(800)
281
500
Cash at start of the year
4,756
2,405
4,018
3,219
3,500
Cash at end of the year
2405
4018
3219
3500
4000
August 2, 2017
10
Tech Mahindra | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Valuation ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
12.8
10.8
11.9
10.8
10.1
P/CEPS
10.4
8.6
8.9
8.1
7.5
P/BVPS
2.7
2.3
2.0
1.8
1.7
Dividend yield (%)
1.3
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.4
EV/Sales
1.6
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
EV/EBITDA
8.6
8.0
8.5
7.6
6.9
EV/Total assets
7.8
6.9
5.2
5.2
5.2
Per share data (`)
EPS
30.2
35.8
32.3
35.6
38.1
Cash EPS
37.2
44.5
43.5
47.7
51.1
Dividend
5.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
13.0
Book value
140.6
167.5
188.7
209.6
233.0
Dupont analysis
Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT)
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT)
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales)
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets)
4.9
5.3
4.3
4.6
5.0
Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity)
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
Operating ROE (%)
21.5
21.4
17.1
17.0
16.3
Return ratios (%)
RoCE (pre-tax)
24.0
20.1
15.6
16.1
15.9
Angel RoIC
29.3
27.3
19.0
19.4
19.4
RoE
21.5
21.4
17.1
17.0
16.3
Turnover ratios( x)
Asset turnover (fixed assets)
4.9
5.3
4.3
4.6
5.0
Receivables days
92
86
70
97
90
Payable days
29
34
30
32
35
August 2, 2017
11
Tech Mahindra | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Tech Mahindra
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
August 2, 2017
12