4QFY2017 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
June 12, 2017
Lupin
BUY
CMP
`1,161
Performance Highlights
Target Price
`1,526
Y/E March
% chg
Investment Period
12 months
4QFY2017
3QFY2017
% chg qoq
4QFY2016
(`cr)
yoy
Net sales
4,162
4,410
(5.6)
4,109
1.3
Sector
Pharmaceutical
Other income
137
182
(24.7)
123
10.9
Market Cap (` cr)
52,424
Operating
690
1,143
(39.6)
1,226
(43.7)
Net Debt (` cr)
8,165
profit
Interest
41
46
(11.6)
31
30.8
Beta
0.7
Net profit
380
633
(40.0)
748
(49.2)
52 Week High / Low
1,750 / 1,080
Source: Company, Angel Research
Avg. Daily Volume
97,284
Face Value (`)
2
For 4QFY2017, Lupin posted results which were much below expectations mainly
BSE Sensex
31,262
on OPM and the net profit front. The revenues came in at `4,162cr v/s.
`4,338cr, a yoy growth of 1.3%. On the OPM front, the EBDITA margins came in
Nifty
9,668
at 16.6% (v/s. 25.7% expected) v/s. 31.2% in 4QFY2016. Thus, the Adj. PAT
Reuters Code
LUPN.BO
during the quarter came in at `380.3cr v/s. `748cr expected a yoy dip of 49.2%.
Bloomberg Code
[email protected]
Given the valuations, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock.
Numbers lower than expectations: The revenues came in at `4,162cr v/s.
Shareholding Pattern (%)
`4,338cr, a yoy growth of 1.3%. The sales were impacted on the back of the
Promoters
46.7
USA (`1901cr), a yoy dip of 13.2%. On the OPM front, the EBDITA margins
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
10.5
came in at 16.6% (v/s. 25.7% expected) v/s. 31.2% in 4QFY2016. While the
FII / NRIs / OCBs
32.6
Gross margins came in at 71.5% v/s. 73.8%, a yoy rise of 24.4%, 31.3% and
Indian Public / Others
10.3
37.7% in the employee, R&D and other expenses respectively lead to the higher
than expected contraction in the OPM. Net impact of foreign exchange
fluctuation on EBITDA was a loss of `168cr during 4QFY2017 as compared to a
Abs. (%)
3m 1yr 3yr
gain of `26.7cr during 4QFY2016 and a gain of `27.6cr during 3QFY2017.
Sensex
8.1
16.8
22.2
Also, the company made a provision for liability towards its Australian subsidiary
Lupin
(19.9)
(18.7)
21.3
amounting to `155.9cr, in respect of compensation for patent litigation towards
its Isabelle generic launch in Australia. Thus, the Adj. PAT during the quarter
came in at `380.3cr v/s. `748cr expected, a yoy dip of 49.2%.
3-year price chart
2,300
Outlook and valuation: We expect Lupin to post a net sales CAGR of 11.5% to
2,100
`21,289cr and earnings CAGR of 10.4% to `69.3/share over FY2017-19E.
1,900
Currently, the stock is trading at 16.7x its FY2019E earnings respectively. We
1,700
1,500
recommend a Buy rating on the stock.
1,300
1,100
Key financials (Consolidated)
900
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
700
Net sales
13,702
17,120
18,657
21,289
500
% chg
8.7
24.9
9.0
14.1
Net profit
2,271
2,557
2,748
3,117
% chg
-5.5
12.6
7.4
13.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
EPS (`)
50.5
56.9
61.1
69.3
EBITDA margin (%)
23.7
24.1
24.1
24.1
P/E (x)
23.0
20.4
19.0
16.7
RoE (%)
22.7
20.7
18.6
17.8
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
RoCE (%)
19.4
15.5
17.1
20.6
+91 22 3935 7600 Ext: 6806
P/BV (x)
4.7
3.9
3.2
2.7
[email protected]
EV/sales (x)
4.2
3.5
2.8
2.3
EV/EBITDA (x)
17.9
14.4
11.8
9.8
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of June 9, 2017
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Lupin | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 4QFY2017 - Consolidated performance
Y/E March (` cr)
4QFY2017
3QFY2017
% chg (qoq)
4QFY2016
% chg (yoy)
FY2017
FY2016
% chg (yoy)
Net sales
4,162
4,410
(5.6)
4,109
1.3
17,120
13,758
24.4
Other income
137
182
(24.7)
123
10.9
481
683
(29.6)
Total income
4,232
4,591
(7.8)
4,232
0.0
17,601
14,441
21.9
Gross profit
2,977
3,108
(4.2)
3,008
12,118
9,425
28.6
Gross margin
71.5
70.5
73.2
70.8
68.5
Operating profit
690.0
1,142.7
(39.6)
1,226.3
(43.7)
4,119
3,188
29.2
OPM (%)
16.6
25.9
29.8
24.1
23.2
Interest
41
46
(11.6)
31
30.8
153
59
156.5
Dep. & amortization
267
231
15.8
149
79.8
912
487
87.3
PBT
519
1,047
(50.5)
1,170
(55.7)
3,535
3,324
6.3
Provision for taxation
137
409
(66.6)
419
(67.4)
979
1,059
(7.6)
Reported net profit
382
638
(40.1)
751
(49.1)
2,556
2,265
12.9
Less : exceptional items
-
-
-
-
-
MI & share in associates
2
5
(54.0)
3
(33.1)
(1)
4
-
PAT after exceptional
380
633
(40.0)
748
(49.2)
2,557
2,261
13.1
items
EPS (`)
16.7
14.1
57.0
57.0
50.5
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 4QFY2017 - Actual Vs Angel estimates
` cr
Actual
Estimates
Variation
Net Sales
4,162
4,000
4.0
Other Income
137
106
28.5
Operating Profit
690
895
(22.9)
Deprecation
267
202
32.4
Tax
137
153
(10.4)
Net Profit
380
637
(40.4)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue grows 1.3% yoy: The revenues came in at `4,162cr v/s. `4,338cr, a yoy
growth of 1.3%. The sales were impacted on the back of the USA (`1901cr), a yoy
dip of 13.2%. Other significant markets like India posted (`878.8cr), a yoy growth
of 13.8%, APAC (`612cr), a yoy growth of 35%, EMEA (‘301.2cr), a yoy growth of
22.8%, LATAM (`126.9cr), a yoy growth of 37.3%.
The USA (which contributed around 46%), registered a yoy de-growth of 13.2%.
India at `878.8cr, posted yoy growth of 13.8%, APAC at `612cr, posted a yoy
growth of 35%, EMEA at `301cr, posted a yoy growth of 22.8%, LATAM at
`126.9cr, posted a yoy growth of 37.3% and ROW at `61.0cr posted, a yoy
growth of 0.7%.
Lupin’s USA sales de-grew by
13.2% to
`1900.7cr during 4QFY2017,
contributing 46% of Lupin’s global sales. The Company launched 9 products in the
US market during the quarter. The Company now has 139 products in the US
generics market. Lupin is now the leader in 45 products marketed in the US
generics market and amongst the top 3 in 83 of its marketed products (market
share by prescriptions, IMS Health, March 2017).
June 12, 2017
2
Lupin | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Lupin’s India formulation sales grew by 13.8% to `878.8cr during 4QFY2017, as
compared to `772.2cr during 4QFY2016, contributing 21% of Lupin’s global
sales. API sales (`281.5cr) posted a dip of 4.7% yoy.
Exhibit 3: Advanced markets - Sales trend
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Domestic Formulation Market
Source: Company
OPM at 16.6%, lower than expected: On the OPM front, the EBDITA margins
came in at 16.6% (v/s. 25.7% expected) v/s. 31.2% in 4QFY2016. While the Gross
margins came in at 71.5% v/s. 73.8%, a yoy rise of 24.4%, 31.3% and 37.7% in
the employee, R&D and other expenses lead to the higher than expected
contraction in the OPM. Net Impact of foreign exchange fluctuation on EBITDA
was a loss of `1,68cr during 4QFY2017 as compared to a gain of `26.7cr during
4QFY2016 and a gain of `27.6cr during 3QFY2017.
Also, the company made a provision for liability towards its Australian subsidiary
amounting to `155.9cr, in respect of compensation for patent litigation towards its
Isabelle generic launch in Australia. These aided the contraction in the OPM. R&D
expense stood at 16% of sales, higher than the normalized rate of 12-13%. Thus,
normalized EBDITA margins came in at ~25%.
June 12, 2017
3
Lupin | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 5: OPM trend
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net profit growth lower than estimate: The Adj. PAT during the quarter came in at
`380.3cr v/s. `710.6cr expected, a yoy dip of 49.2%. Contraction in OPM along
with higher deprecation aided the Adj. net profit to de-grow by 49.2% yoy.
Exhibit 6: Net profit trends
Source: Company, Angel Research
Conference call takeaways
Management has guided for 30+ ANDA launches in FY2018.
R&D expense as % of sales to be in-line with FY2017.
14 FTF launches expected over the next five years.
US Branded business sales at US$78m in FY2017.
Management has guided for muted growth in FY18E due to pricing pressure.
With the company having huge pipeline of products to be launched in
FY2019E onwards, it expects growth to bounce back to double digits in
FY2019E and targeted revenues of US$3.5bn FY2020E onwards.
EBDITA Margins are expected to be in the range of 26-28%.
June 12, 2017
4
Lupin | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Recommendation rationale
US market - the key driver: The high-margin branded generic business has
been the key differentiator for Lupin in the Indian pharmaceuticals space. On
the generic turf, Lupin is currently the fifth largest generic player in the US,
with 5.3% market share in prescription. Lupin is now the market leader in 45
products marketed in the US generics market and is amongst the top 3 by
market share in 83 products. Currently, the company’s cumulative filings stand
at 368, of which 214 have been approved, with 23 exclusive FTFs. Lupin plans
to launch 25-30 products in the US in FY2018. We expect the region to post a
CAGR of 9.9% over FY2017-19E on the back of new product launches.
Domestic formulations on a strong footing: Lupin continues to make strides in
the Indian market. Currently, Lupin ranks No 3, and is the fastest growing
company among the top five companies in the domestic formulation space,
registering a strong CAGR of 20% over the last few years. Six of Lupin's
products are among the top 300 brands in the country. Lupin has a strong
field force of ~6,000MRs (as of FY2016). We expect the domestic formulation
market to grow at a CAGR of 16.0% over FY2017-19E.
First-mover advantage in Japan: Lupin figures among the few Indian
companies with a formidable presence in Japan, the world’s second largest
pharma market (Lupin was ranked as the 8th largest as per IMS MAT March
2014). The Management believes that there will be patent expiries (US$14-
16bn) in the next two years in the Japanese market, which along with
increased generic penetration would drive growth in the market. The
Management expects improvement in growth in the next 3-4 years. On a
conservative basis, we expect the Japan market to post a CAGR of 20% over
FY2017-19E.
Valuation
We expect Lupin to post a net sales CAGR of 11.5% to `21,284cr and earnings
CAGR of 10.4% to `69.3/share over FY2017-19E. Currently, the stock is trading
at 16.7x its FY2019E earnings, respectively. We recommend a Buy rating on the
stock.
Exhibit 7: Key Assumptions
FY2018E
FY2019E
Sales growth (%)
9.0
14.1
Domestic growth (%)
16.0
16.0
Exports growth (%)
7.8
13.5
Operating margins (%)
24.1
24.1
R&D Exp ( % of sales)
12.0
12.0
Capex (` cr)
1000
1000
Source: Company, Angel Research
June 12, 2017
5
Lupin | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 8: One-year forward PE
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
20x
25x
30x
35x
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9: Recommendation summary
Company
Reco
CMP
Tgt. price
Upside
FY2018E
FY16-18E
FY2018E
EV/Sale
EV/EBITDA
CAGR in
RoCE
(`)
(`)
(%)
PE (x)
RoE (%)
(x)
(x)
EPS (%)
(%)
Alembic Pharma
Buy
552
648
17.3
21.7
2.5
12.0
(10.8)
27.5
25.3
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
609
823
35.2
13.6
2.2
9.9
18.1
22.5
26.1
Cadila Healthcare
Sell
541
450
(16.8)
28.4
4.8
23.8
(0.5)
16.2
24.6
Cipla
Sell
550
465
(15.5)
22.4
2.5
15.2
14.2
12.2
13.9
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
2,631
-
-
24.8
2.9
15.8
(13.7)
10.8
13.6
Dishman Pharma
Under Review
301
-
-
26.6
2.9
12.7
16.3
13.0
13.5
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,463
-
-
49.7
6.2
38.4
6.0
22.3
21.3
Indoco Remedies
Sell
193
153
(20.7)
17.1
1.7
11.7
6.3
10.1
15.0
Ipca labs
Buy
501
710
41.7
25.8
1.8
12.6
13.9
10.4
9.5
Lupin
Buy
1,161
1,526
31.5
19.0
2.7
11.4
10.0
20.6
17.8
Sanofi India
Neutral
4,051
-
-
29.0
3.3
19.8
16.8
22.5
26.4
Sun Pharma
Buy
525
712
35.7
16.6
3.5
12.9
1.2
16.9
18.7
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * December year ending
June 12, 2017
6
Lupin | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Company Background
Lupin, established in 1968, is primarily engaged in the manufacture and global
distribution of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and finished dosages. Over
the years, the company forayed into the US markets through a differentiated export
strategy of tapping branded generics and consequently gaining a large share of
the US prescription market. Further, to expand its footprint in the global markets,
Lupin has prudently adopted the inorganic growth route. In-line with this, over the
last two years, the company made small acquisitions across geographies,
prominent among these being the acquisition of Kyowa in the growing Japanese
market. In the US, the company has acquired privately held Gavis Pharmaceuticals
LLC and Novel Laboratories Inc. The acquisitions have enhanced Lupin’s scale in
the US generic market and have also broadened its pipeline in dermatology,
controlled substance products and other high-value and niche generics.
June 12, 2017
7
Lupin | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Gross sales
11,167
12,684
13,797
17,224
18,770
21,417
Less: Excise duty
80
84
96
104
113
129
Net sales
11,087
12,600
13,702
17,120
18,657
21,289
Other operating income
200
170
507
375
375
375
Total operating income
11,287
12,770
14,208
17,494
19,032
21,663
% chg
17.1
13.1
11.3
23.1
8.8
13.8
Total expenditure
8,284
9,150
10,455
13,001
14,169
16,167
Net raw materials
3,817
4,157
4,309
5,001
5,451
6,219
Other mfg costs
847
963
1,047
1,308
1,426
1,627
Personnel
1,465
1,747
2,108
2,850
3,105
3,543
Other
2,155
2,283
2,580
3,842
4,187
4,778
EBITDA
2,803
3,449
3,247
4,119
4,488
5,122
% chg
34.1
23.1
-5.9
26.9
9.0
14.1
(% of Net Sales)
25.3
27.4
23.7
24.1
24.1
24.1
Dep. & Amortization
261
435
464
912
1,002
1,122
EBIT
2,542
3,015
2,783
3,206
3,486
3,999
% chg
44.6
18.6
-7.7
15.2
8.7
14.7
(% of Net Sales)
22.9
23.9
20.3
18.7
18.7
18.8
Interest & other charges
27
10
45
153
153
153
Other Income
116
240
188
107
107
107
(% of PBT)
4
7
5
3
3
2
Share in profit of asso.
Recurring PBT
2,832
3,415
3,433
3,535
3,815
4,328
% chg
47.1
20.6
0.5
3.0
7.9
13.4
Extraordinary exp./(Inc.)
-
-
-
-
-
-
PBT (reported)
2,832
3,415
3,433
3,535
3,815
4,328
Tax
962
970
1,154
979
1,068
1,212
(% of PBT)
34.0
28.4
33.6
27.7
28.0
28.0
PAT (reported)
1,870
2,444
2,279
2,556
2,747
3,116
Add: Share of earnings of asso.
-
-
-
-
-
-
Less: Minority interest (MI)
33
41
9
(1)
(1)
(1)
Prior period items
-
-
-
-
-
-
PAT after MI (reported)
1,836
2,403
2,271
2,557
2,748
3,117
ADJ. PAT
1,836
2,403
2,271
2,557
2,748
3,117
% chg
39.7
30.9
-5.5
12.6
7.4
13.4
(% of Net Sales)
16.6
19.1
16.6
14.9
14.7
14.6
Basic EPS (`)
41.0
53.5
50.5
56.9
61.1
69.3
Fully Diluted EPS (`)
41.0
53.5
50.5
56.9
61.1
69.3
% chg
39.5
30.5
-5.5
12.6
7.4
13.4
June 12, 2017
8
Lupin | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital
90
90
90
90
90
90
Reserves & surplus
6,842
8,784
11,073
13,407
15,987
18,935
Shareholders funds
6,932
8,874
11,163
13,497
16,076
19,025
Minority interest
67
24
32
35
33
32
Total loans
553
471
7,119
7,952
1,500
500
Other Long-Term
46
74
75
76
77
78
Liabilities
Long-Term Provisions
132
132
592
836
836
836
Deferred tax liability
178
118
(9)
(113)
(113)
(113)
Total liabilities
7,908
9,693
18,973
22,283
18,410
20,359
APPLICATION OF
FUNDS
Gross block
4,564
5,355
6,853
7,853
8,853
9,853
Less: Acc. Depreciation
1,928
2,363
2,827
3,739
4,741
5,863
Net block
2,635
2,992
4,026
5,047
4,112
3,989
Capital work-in-
304
304
304
304
304
304
progress
Goodwill
720
1,648
7,089
7,815
7,815
7,815
Investments
178
1,658
16
2,136
2,136
2,136
Long-Term Loans and
373
275
968
957
1,318
1,504
Adv.
Current assets
5,924
6,176
9,885
9,840
7,701
10,288
Cash
798
1,306
822
699
489
2,059
Loans & advances
302
671
737
912
994
1,134
Other
4,825
4,199
8,326
8,229
6,218
7,095
Current liabilities
2,227
3,360
3,316
3,816
4,975
5,677
Net current assets
3,697
2,816
6,570
6,024
2,726
4,611
Mis. Exp. not written off
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total assets
7,908
9,693
18,973
22,283
18,410
20,359
June 12, 2017
9
Lupin | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Profit before tax
2,832
3,415
3,433
3,535
3,815
4,328
Depreciation
261
435
464
912
1,002
1,122
(Inc)/Dec in working
(1,481)
1,487
(4,931)
434
2,727
(501)
capital
Direct taxes paid
(962)
(970)
(1,154)
(979)
(1,068)
(1,212)
Cash Flow from
649
4,367
(2,188)
3,903
6,476
3,737
Operations
(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets
(443)
(791)
(1,498)
(1,000)
(1,000)
(1,000)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments
-
-
-
-
-
-
Cash Flow from Investing
(443)
(791)
(1,498)
(1,000)
(1,000)
(1,000)
Issue of equity
-
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
(611)
(82)
6,648
833
(6,452)
(1,000)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(157)
(168)
(168)
(168)
(168)
(168)
Others
926
(2,816)
(3,278)
(3,689)
935
-
Cash Flow from Financing
157
(3,067)
3,202
(3,024)
(5,685)
(1,168)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
363
509
(484)
(122)
(209)
1,569
Opening Cash balances
435
798
1,306
822
699
489
Closing Cash balances
798
1,306
822
699
489
2,059
June 12, 2017
10
Lupin | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
28.3
21.7
23.0
20.4
19.0
16.7
P/CEPS
24.8
18.4
19.1
15.0
13.9
12.3
P/BV
7.5
5.9
4.7
3.9
3.2
2.7
Dividend yield (%)
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
EV/Sales
4.7
4.1
4.2
3.5
2.8
2.3
EV/EBITDA
18.4
14.9
17.9
14.4
11.8
9.8
EV / Total Assets
6.5
5.3
3.1
2.7
2.9
2.5
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
41.0
53.5
50.5
56.9
61.1
69.3
EPS (fully diluted)
41.0
53.5
50.5
56.9
61.1
69.3
Cash EPS
46.8
63.1
60.8
77.2
83.4
94.3
DPS
6.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
Book Value
154.6
197.4
248.3
300.3
357.7
423.3
Dupont Analysis
EBIT margin
22.9
23.9
20.3
18.7
18.7
18.8
Tax retention ratio
66.0
71.6
66.4
72.3
72.0
72.0
Asset turnover (x)
1.7
1.6
1.1
0.9
1.0
1.2
ROIC (Post-tax)
25.4
28.2
14.4
11.9
13.0
16.2
Cost of Debt (Post
2.0
1.4
0.8
1.5
2.3
11.0
Tax)
Leverage (x)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.1
-0.1
Operating ROE
25.4
28.2
14.4
16.4
14.0
15.9
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax)
34.7
34.3
19.4
15.5
17.1
20.6
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
44.1
48.2
32.4
26.5
30.0
40.0
ROE
30.3
30.4
22.7
20.7
18.6
17.8
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.3
Block)
Inventory / Sales
66
62
74
74
61
55
(days)
Receivables (days)
75
66
79
79
64
58
Payables (days)
84
78
82
70
80
85
WC cycle (ex-cash)
89
63
93
116
73
40
(days)
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
(0.0)
(0.1)
0.6
0.5
0.1
(0.1)
Net debt to EBITDA
(0.1)
(0.2)
1.9
1.8
0.2
(0.3)
Interest Coverage
95.4
307.3
62.4
21.0
22.9
26.2
June 12, 2017
11
Lupin | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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June 12, 2017
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