2QFY2018 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
November 20, 2017
Lupin
BUY
Performance Highlights
CMP
`829
Target Price
`1,091
% chg
Y/E March (`cr) 2QFY2018
1QFY2018
% chg qoq 2QFY2017
yoy
Investment Period
12 months
Net sales
3,874
3,806
1.8
4,212
(8.0)
Other income
152
95
60.3
106
42.7
Operating
775
705
10.0
949
(18.3)
Stock Info
profit
Sector
Pharmaceutical
Interest
48
44
9.1
26
82.1
Market Cap (` cr)
44,944
Net profit
455
358
27.1
662
(31.3)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net Debt (` cr)
8,165
Beta
0.7
For 2QFY2018, sales came in at `3,874cr (`4,000cr expected) v/s. `4,212cr in
52 Week High / Low
1,734 /986
2QFY2017, a yoy de-growth of 8.0%. On operating front, the EBITDA margins
Avg. Daily Volume
1,15,245
came in at 20.0% (19.6% expected) v/s. 22.5% in 2QFY2017, mainly on the back
Face Value (`)
2
of lower than expected sales during the quarter & dip in the gross margins. Thus,
BSE Sensex
32,238
the PAT came in at `455cr (`421cr expected) v/s. `662cr in 2QFY2017, a yoy de-
Nifty
10,014
growth of 31.3%. Tax rate during the quarter was 25.4% of PBT in 2QFY2017 V/s
Reuters Code
LUPN.BO
19.2% of PBT in 2QFY2017. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock.
Bloomberg Code
[email protected]
Numbers lower than expectations: Sales came in at `3,874cr (`4,000cr expected)
v/s. `4,212cr in 2QFY2017, a yoy de-growth of 8.0%. The de-growth was mainly
Shareholding Pattern (%)
on the back of formulation sales (`3,609cr), which dipped by 7.9% yoy, aided by a
Promoters
46.7
31.9% dip in the USA (`1,361cr). Lupin’s India formulation sales grew by 16.4% yoy
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
10.9
to end the period at `1,159cr. On operating front, the EBITDA margins came in at
FII / NRIs / OCBs
31.5
20.0% (19.6% expected) v/s. 22.5% in 2QFY2017, mainly on the back of lower than
Indian Public / Others
10.9
expected sales during the quarter and dip in the gross margins. Thus, the PAT
came in at `455cr (`421cr expected) v/s. `662cr in 2QFY2017, a yoy de-growth of
31.3%.
Abs. (%)
3m 1yr 3yr
Outlook and valuation: We expect Lupin to post a net sales CAGR of 4.1% to
Sensex
7..8
16.4
25.3
`18,562cr over FY2017-19E. The earnings would come under pressure, on back of
Lupin
(30.6)
(40.8)
(15.6)
pressure on the OPM. The stock trades at 16.8x its FY2019E earnings respectively.
3-year price chart
We recommend a Buy rating on the stock.
2,500
2,000
1,500
Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
1,000
Net sales
13,702
17,120
18,657
21,289
500
% chg
8.7
24.9
9.0
14.1
Net profit
2,271
2,557
2,373
2,997
0
% chg
(5.5)
12.6
(7.2)
26.3
EPS (`)
50.5
56.9
52.8
66.7
EBITDA margin (%)
23.7
24.1
21.3
23.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
P/E (x)
19.7
17.5
18.8
14.9
RoE (%)
22.7
20.7
16.3
17.5
RoCE (%)
19.4
15.5
14.7
20.5
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
P/BV (x)
4.0
3.3
2.8
2.4
+91 22 3935 7600 Ext: 6806
EV/sales (x)
3.7
3.0
2.4
2.0
[email protected]
EV/EBITDA (x)
15.6
12.6
11.5
8.7
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of November 17, 2017
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Lupin | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 2QFY2018 - Consolidated performance
Y/E March (` cr)
2QFY2018
1QFY2018
% chg (qoq)
2QFY2017
% chg (yoy)
1HFY2018
1HFY2017
% chg (yoy)
Net sales
3,874
3,806
1.8
4,212
(8.0)
7,680
8,553
(10.2)
Other income
152
95
60.3
106
42.7
247
258
(4.4)
Total income
4,026
3,901
3.2
4,318
(6.8)
7,927
8,811
(10.0)
Gross profit
2,810
2,573
9.2
2,969
5,383
6,038
(10.8)
Gross margin
66.8
67.6
70.5
70.1
70.6
Operating profit
775.3
704.6
10.0
949.4
(18.3)
1,480
2,188
(32.4)
OPM (%)
20.0
18.5
22.5
19.3
25.6
Interest
48
44
9.1
26
82.1
92
58
58.3
Dep. & amortization
272
261
4.5
203
34.2
533
414
28.7
PBT
607
495
22.6
827
(26.6)
1,102
1,974
(44.2)
Provision for taxation
154
137
12.6
159
(3.0)
291
432
(32.6)
Reported net profit
457
358
27.6
663
(31.1)
814
1,546
(47.4)
Less : exceptional items
-
-
-
-
-
MI & share in associates
2
(1)
(253.7)
1
141.6
1
1
PAT after exceptional
455
358
27.1
662
(31.3)
813
1,544
(47.3)
items
EPS (`)
10.1
7.9
14.7
18.0
34.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2QFY2018 - Actual v/s. Angel estimates
` cr
Actual
Estimates
Variation
Net Sales
3,874
4,000
(3.1)
Other Income
152
100
51.8
Operating Profit
775
785
(1.2)
Deprecation
272
261
4.5
Tax
154
161
(4.2)
Net Profit
455
421
8.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue de-grows 8.0% yoy: Sales came in at `3,874cr (`4,000cr expected) v/s.
`4,212cr in 2QFY2017, a yoy de-growth of 8.0%. The dip was mainly on the back of
formulation sales (`3,609cr), which declined by 7.9%, following a 31.9% dip in the
USA (`1,361cr; accounting for 35% of global sales). Lupin’s India formulation sales
grew by 16.4% to `1,159cr as compared to 2QFY2017 and 24.3% compared to
1QFY2018, accounting for 30% of Lupin’s global sales. APAC sales were at `636cr
during 2QFY2018 growth of 15.2% yoy, accounting for 16.4% of Lupin’s global sales.
API sales (`265cr) posted a dip of 9.2% yoy.
Lupin’s USA sales de-grew by 31.3% to `1,361cr during 2QFY2018, contributing 35%
to Lupin’s global sales. The Company launched 5 products in the US market during
the quarter, and now has 147 products in the US generics market. Lupin is now the
leader in 43 products marketed in the US generics market and amongst the top 3
in 91 of its marketed products (market share by prescriptions, IMS Health, June
2017).
November 20, 2017
2
Lupin | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Advanced markets - Sales trend
3,000
2,431
2,500
2,329
2,233
2,000
1,828
1,776
1,500
1,000
500
0
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
4QFY2017
1QFY2018
2QFY2018
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Domestic Formulation Market
1400
1159
1200
996
991
1000
932
879
800
600
400
200
0
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
4QFY2017
1QFY2018
2QFY2018
Source: Company
OPM at 20.0%, higher than expected: On the OPM front, the EBDITA margins
came in at 20.0% (v/s. 19.6% expected) v/s. 22.5% in 2QFY2017, while the Gross
margins came in at 66.8% v/s. 70.5% in 2QFY2017. R&D expenses were 12.2% of
sales in 2QFY2018 V/s. 11.9% of sales in 2QFY2017. The staff cost and R&D cost
during the quarter posted a growth of 1.8% and dip of 5.4% respectively.
November 20, 2017
3
Lupin | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 5: OPM trend
30.0
28.0
25.9
26.0
24.0
22.5
22.0
20.0
20.0
18.5
18.0
16.6
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
4QFY2017
1QFY2018
2QFY2018
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net profit growth higher than estimate: The PAT came in at `455cr (`421cr
expected) v/s. `662cr in 2QFY2017, a yoy de-growth of 31.3%. Tax rate during the
quarter was 25.4% of PBT compared to 19.2% of PBT in 2QFY2017.
Exhibit 6: Net profit trends
950
850
750
662
633
650
550
455
450
380.2
358
350
250
150
50
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
4QFY2017
1QFY2018
2QFY2018
Source: Company, Angel Research
Conference call takeaways
Branded sales contributed to 20% of total US sales during the quarter.
Post results, Lupin announced that Goa and Pithampur (Unit-2) based
formulations plant received import alert.
Management mentioned that no data integrity issue was highlighted by US
FDA in the Warning Letter. The company believes that retrospective studies will
have to be done from Jan’2014. However, Lupin will get more clarity regarding
this in its meeting with USFDA.
Lupin believes that the company will be ready for re-inspection in 6 months.
November 20, 2017
4
Lupin | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Out of 158 pending ANDAs, ~40-50 are pending from these two facilities. Out
of these ~20-25 approvals were expected in next 12- 18 months. Lupin is
planning to initiate site transfer for its 12 key ANDAs.
Lupin does not expect any supply disruption due to issuance of Warning
Letters.
Recommendation rationale
US market - the key driver: The high-margin branded generic business has
been the key differentiator for Lupin in the Indian pharmaceuticals space. On
the generic front, Lupin is currently the fifth largest generic player in the US,
with 5.3% market share in prescription. Lupin is now the market leader in 43
products marketed in the US generics market and is amongst the top 3 by
market share in 91 products. Currently, the company’s cumulative filings stand
at 377, of which 225 have been approved, with 25 exclusive FTFs. While the
company has received warning letter its existing business won’t be impacted.
We expect the region to post a dip of 5.3% over FY2017-19E, on back of lack
of visibility on new product launches.
Domestic formulations on a strong footing: Lupin continues to make strides
in the Indian market. Currently ranked No 3, it is the fastest growing company
among the top five companies in the domestic formulation space, registering
a strong CAGR of 20% over the last few years. Six of Lupin's products are
among the top 300 brands in the country. Lupin has a strong field force of
~6,000MRs (as of FY2016). We expect the domestic formulation market to grow
at a CAGR of 14.0% over FY2017-19E.
First-mover advantage in Japan: Lupin figures among the few Indian
companies with a formidable presence in Japan, the world’s second largest
pharmaceuticals market (Lupin was ranked as the 8th largest as per IMS MAT
March 2014). The Management believes that there will be patent expiries
(US$14-16bn) in the next two years in the Japanese market, which along with
increased generic penetration would drive growth in the market. The
Management expects improvement in growth in the next 3-4 years. On a
conservative basis, we expect the Japan market to post a CAGR of 20% over
FY2017-19E.
Valuation
We expect Lupin to post a net sales CAGR of 4.1% to `18,562r and earnings dip of
6.6% to `49.6/share over FY2017-19E. Currently, the stock is trading at 16.7x its
FY2019E earnings. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock.
November 20, 2017
5
Lupin | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 7: Key Assumptions
FY2018E
FY2019E
Sales growth (%)
(5.1)
14.3
Domestic growth (%)
12.0
16.0
Exports growth (%)
(9.3)
13.7
Operating margins (%)
21.3
21.7
R&D Exp ( % of sales)
12.0
12.0
Capex (` cr)
1000
1000
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8: One-year forward PE
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
20x
25x
30x
35x
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9: Recommendation summary
Company
Reco
CMP
Tgt. price
Upside
FY2019E
FY17-19E
FY2019E
EV/Sale
EV/EBITDA
CAGR in
RoCE
(`)
(`)
(%)
PE (x)
RoE (%)
(x)
(x)
EPS (%)
(%)
Alembic Pharma
Buy
514
600
16.8
21.5
2.5
12.9
5.7
20.6
18.4
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
708
823
16.3
13.8
2.1
9.6
14.2
25.3
22.7
Cadila Healthcare
Reduce
446
411
(7.9)
21.7
3.5
17.3
18.9
16.5
22.2
Cipla
Sell
609
426
(24.1)
25.0
2.7
16.0
39.3
10.9
13.1
Dr Reddy's
Reduce
2,325
2,040
(12.3)
22.8
2.8
13.7
18.5
10.8
12.4
Dishman Pharma
Under Review
301
-
-
19.3
2.7
11.5
23.3
4.5
4.4
GSK Pharma
Sell
2,511
2000
(20.4)
51.4
6.4
37.7
19.3
25.8
23.5
Indoco Remedies
Sell
267
153
(42.8)
16.7
2.1
14.9
16.2
10.1
14.5
Ipca labs
Neutral
529
-
-
22.1
1.7
11.2
24.7
12.4
11.0
Lupin
Buy
829
1,091
31.6
16.7
2.1
9.7
(6.6)
13.7
13.7
Sanofi India*
Neutral
4,485
-
-
27.4
3.2
17.1
12.8
25.8
27.5
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
517
558
7.9
20.9
3.5
15.4
(12.9)
12.3
15.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * December year ending
November 20, 2017
6
Lupin | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Company Background
Lupin, established in 1968, is primarily engaged in the manufacture and global
distribution of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and finished dosages. Over
the years, the company forayed into the US markets through a differentiated export
strategy of tapping branded generics and consequently gaining a large share of
the US prescription market. Further, to expand its footprint in the global markets,
Lupin has prudently adopted the inorganic growth route. In-line with this, over the
last two years, the company made small acquisitions across geographies,
prominent among these being the acquisition of Kyowa in the growing Japanese
market. In the US, the company has acquired privately held Gavis Pharmaceuticals
LLC and Novel Laboratories Inc. The acquisitions have enhanced Lupin’s scale in the
US generic market and have also broadened its pipeline in dermatology, controlled
substance products and other high-value and niche generics.
November 20, 2017
7
Lupin | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014 FY2015
FY2016 FY2017 FY2018E FY2019E
Gross sales
11,167
12,684
13,797
17,224
16,338
18,674
Less: Excise duty
80
84
96
104
98
112
Net sales
11,087
12,600
13,702
17,120
16,240
18,562
Other operating income
200
170
507
375
375
375
Total operating income
11,287
12,770
14,208
17,494
16,614
18,937
% chg
17.1
13.1
11.3
23.1
-5.0
14.0
Total expenditure
8,284
9,150
10,455
13,001
12,785
14,532
Net raw materials
3,817
4,157
4,309
5,001
5,197
5,569
Other mfg costs
847
963
1,047
1,308
1,241
1,418
Personnel
1,465
1,747
2,108
2,850
2,703
3,090
Other
2,155
2,283
2,580
3,842
3,645
4,455
EBITDA
2,803
3,449
3,247
4,119
3,454
4,031
% chg
34.1
23.1
-5.9
26.9
-16.1
16.7
(% of Net Sales)
25.3
27.4
23.7
24.1
21.3
21.7
Dep. & Amortization
261
435
464
912
1,086
1,216
EBIT
2,542
3,015
2,783
3,206
2,369
2,815
% chg
44.6
18.6
-7.7
15.2
-26.1
18.8
(% of Net Sales)
22.9
23.9
20.3
18.7
14.6
15.2
Interest & other charges
27
10
45
153
200
200
Other Income
116
240
188
107
107
107
(% of PBT)
4
7
5
3
4
3
Share in profit of asso.
Recurring PBT
2,832
3,415
3,433
3,535
2,650
3,096
% chg
47.1
20.6
0.5
3.0
-25.0
16.8
Extraordinary exp./(Inc.)
-
-
-
-
-
-
PBT (reported)
2,832
3,415
3,433
3,535
2,650
3,096
Tax
962
970
1,154
979
742
867
(% of PBT)
34.0
28.4
33.6
27.7
28.0
28.0
PAT (reported)
1,870
2,444
2,279
2,556
1,908
2,229
Add: Share of earnings of asso.
-
-
-
-
-
-
Less: Minority interest (MI)
33
41
9
(1)
(1)
(1)
Prior period items
-
-
-
-
-
-
PAT after MI (reported)
1,836
2,403
2,271
2,557
1,909
2,230
ADJ. PAT
1,836
2,403
2,271
2,557
1,909
2,230
% chg
39.7
30.9
-5.5
12.6
-25.4
16.8
(% of Net Sales)
16.6
19.1
16.6
14.9
11.8
12.0
Basic EPS (`)
41.0
53.5
50.5
56.9
42.5
49.6
Fully Diluted EPS (`)
41.0
53.5
50.5
56.9
42.5
49.6
% chg
39.5
30.5
(5.5)
12.6
(7.2)
26.3
November 20, 2017
8
Lupin | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital
90
90
90
90
90
90
Reserves & surplus
6,842
8,784
11,073
13,407
15,148
17,210
Shareholders funds
6,932
8,874
11,163
13,497
15,238
17,299
Minority interest
67
24
32
35
33
32
Total loans
553
471
7,119
7,952
4,000
3,000
Other Long-Term
46
74
75
76
77
-
Liabilities
Long-Term Provisions
132
132
592
836
836
836
Deferred tax liability
178
118
(9)
(113)
(113)
(113)
Total liabilities
7,908
9,693
18,973
22,283
20,071
21,055
APPLICATION OF
FUNDS
Gross block
4,564
5,355
6,853
7,853
8,853
9,853
Less: Acc. Depreciation
1,928
2,363
2,827
3,739
4,825
6,040
Net block
2,635
2,992
4,026
5,047
4,028
3,812
Capital work-in-
304
304
304
304
304
304
progress
Goodwill
720
1,648
7,089
7,815
7,815
7,815
Investments
178
1,658
16
2,136
2,136
2,136
Long-Term Loans and
373
275
968
957
1,147
1,311
Adv.
Current assets
5,924
6,176
9,885
9,840
8,972
10,627
Cash
798
1,306
822
699
301
716
Loans & advances
302
671
737
912
865
989
Other
4,825
4,199
8,326
8,229
7,806
8,922
Current liabilities
2,227
3,360
3,316
3,816
4,331
4,950
Net current assets
3,697
2,816
6,570
6,024
4,641
5,677
Mis. Exp. not written
-
-
-
-
-
-
off
Total assets
7,908
9,693
18,973
22,283
20,071
21,055
November 20, 2017
9
Lupin | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018E FY2019E
Profit before tax
2,832
3,415
3,433
3,535
2,650
3,096
Depreciation
261
435
464
912
1,086
1,216
(Inc)/Dec in working
(87)
1,487
(4,931)
434
795
(785)
capital
Direct taxes paid
(962)
(970)
(1,154)
(979)
(742)
(867)
Cash Flow from
2,044
4,367
(2,188)
3,903
3,788
2,660
Operations
(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets
(443)
(791)
(1,498)
(1,000)
(1,000)
(1,000)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments
-
-
-
-
-
-
Cash Flow from
(443)
(791)
(1,498)
(1,000)
(1,000)
(1,000)
Investing
Issue of equity
-
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
(611)
(82)
6,648
833
(3,952)
(1,000)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(157)
(168)
(168)
(168)
(168)
(168)
Others
(469)
(2,816)
(3,278)
(3,689)
934
(77)
Cash Flow from
(1,238)
(3,067)
3,202
(3,024)
(3,186)
(1,245)
Financing
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
363
509
(484)
(122)
(398)
415
Opening Cash balances
435
798
1,306
822
699
301
Closing Cash balances
798
1,306
822
699
301
716
November 20, 2017
10
Lupin | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
20.2
15.5
16.4
14.6
19.5
16.7
P/CEPS
17.7
13.1
13.6
10.7
12.4
10.8
P/BV
5.4
4.2
3.3
2.8
2.4
2.2
Dividend yield (%)
0.7
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
EV/Sales
3.3
2.9
3.2
2.6
2.5
2.1
EV/EBITDA
13.1
10.5
13.3
10.8
11.8
9.7
EV / Total Assets
4.6
3.8
2.3
2.0
2.0
1.9
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
41.0
53.5
50.5
56.9
42.5
49.6
EPS (fully diluted)
41.0
53.5
50.5
56.9
42.5
49.6
Cash EPS
46.8
63.1
60.8
77.2
66.6
76.7
DPS
6.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
Book Value
154.6
197.4
248.3
300.3
339.0
384.9
Dupont Analysis
EBIT margin
22.9
23.9
20.3
18.7
14.6
15.2
Tax retention ratio
66.0
71.6
66.4
72.3
72.0
72.0
Asset turnover (x)
1.7
1.6
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.9
ROIC (Post-tax)
25.4
28.2
14.4
11.9
8.4
10.3
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
2.0
1.4
0.8
1.5
2.4
4.1
Leverage (x)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.2
0.0
Operating ROE
25.4
28.2
14.4
16.4
9.6
10.6
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax)
34.7
34.3
19.4
15.5
11.2
13.7
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
44.1
48.2
32.4
26.5
18.9
23.6
ROE
30.3
30.4
22.7
20.7
13.3
13.7
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.4
2.0
2.0
Block)
Inventory / Sales (days)
66
62
74
74
74
68
Receivables (days)
75
66
79
79
79
72
Payables (days)
84
78
82
70
82
82
WC cycle (ex-cash)
89
63
93
116
106
90
(days)
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
(0.0)
(0.1)
0.6
0.5
0.2
0.1
Net debt to EBITDA
(0.1)
(0.2)
1.9
1.8
1.1
0.6
Interest Coverage
95.4
307.3
62.4
21.0
19.4
25.1
November 20, 2017
11
Lupin | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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