2QFY2018 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
November 28, 2017
Ipca Laboratories
ACCUMULATE
CMP
`533
Performance Highlights
Target Price
`570
% chg
% chg
Y/E March (` cr)
2QFY2018 1QFY2018
2QFY2017
Investment Period
12 Months
(QoQ)
(YoY)
Net sales
864
713
21.2
884
(2.3)
Other income
11
6
78.0
6
77.7
Stock Info
Sector
Pharmaceutical
Operating profit
149
22
592.5
135
10.2
Market Cap (` cr)
6,732
Tax
13
(1)
-
37
(64.9)
Net Debt (` cr)
357
96
(20)
-
55
75.6
Adj. net profit/(loss)
Beta
0.5
52 Week High / Low
656/400
Source: Company, Angel Research
Avg. Daily Volum e
31,324
IPCA Labs posted results lower than expected for 2QFY2018 mainly on the
Face Value (`)
2
BSE Sensex
33,724
OPM and net profit front. In sales, the company posted sales of `864cr, a
Nifty
10,400
yoy de-growth of 2.3% v/s. `884cr for 2QFY2017, but mostly in line with the
Reuters Code
IPCA.BO
Bloom berg Code
IPCA@IN
expected sales of `870cr. On OPM front, the company posted EBITDA of
17.2% (v/s. 20.5% expected) v/s. 15.3% in 2QFY2017. Consequently, the
Shareholding Pattern (%)
company posted a profit of `96cr (v/s. PAT of `109cr expected) v/s. PAT of
Prom oters
46.1
`55cr in 2QFY2017. We recommend Accumulate with a target of `570.
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
25.0
FII / NRIs / OCBs
17.1
Results below expectations: In sales, the company posted sales of `864cr,
Indian Public / Others
11.8
a yoy de-growth of 2.3% v/s `884cr for 2QFY2017, but mostly in line with the
expected `870cr sales. The sales dip was mainly on back of the
Abs . (%)
3m
1yr
3yr
Formulations (`659cr) sales, which posted a yoy de-growth of 3.0%, while
Sensex
6.2
28.0
18.6
Ipca
28.0
(6.2)
(21.4)
API (`194cr) posted a yoy growth of 3.0% yoy. On OPM front, the company
posted EBITDA of 17.2% (v/s. 20.5% expected) v/s. 15.3% in 2QFY2017.
3-Year Daily Price Chart
Consequently, the company posted a profit of `96cr (v/s. PAT of `109cr
1,000
expected) v/s. PAT of `55cr in 2QFY2017.
800
Outlook and Valuation: We expect net sales to post a CAGR of 6.6% to
`3,647cr and EPS to register a CAGR of 28.4% to `25.4 over FY2017-19E. The
600
company’s financials will be impacted by the USFDA import alert on the
400
Ratlam, Indore and Silvassa facilities. However, given the comfortable
valuations, we recommend our Accumulate rating.
200
Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
2,844
3,211
3,256
3,647
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net sales
(8.7)
12.9
1.4
12.0
% chg
Adj. Net profit
133
195
205
321
% chg
(47.6)
46.0
5.1
56.9
EPS
10.6
15.4
16.2
25.4
EBITDA margin (%)
10.6
13.9
14.1
17.1
P/E (x)
50.5
34.6
32.9
21.0
RoE (%)
5.9
8.2
8.0
11.5
RoCE (%)
4.1
8.7
8.6
13.3
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
P/BV (x)
+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6806
2.5
2.2
2.1
1.8
EV/Sales (x)
[email protected]
23.5
16.0
15.1
10.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of November 27, 2017
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 2QFY2018 - Standalone performance
Y/E March (` cr)
2QFY2018 1QFY2018
% chg (QoQ) 2QFY2017 % chg (YoY) 1HFY2018 1HFY2017 % chg (yoy)
Net sales
864
713
21.2
884
(2.3)
1577
1739
(9.3)
11
6
78.0
6.19
77.7
17
11
55.3
Other income
Total income
875
719
21.7
891
(1.7)
1594
1750
(8.9)
569
445
27.8
565
0.8
1015
1106
(8.3)
Gross profit
Gross margins (%)
65.9
62.5
63.9
64.3
63.6
Operating profit
149
22
592.5
135
10.2
171
255
(33.2)
17.2
3.0
15.3
10.8
14.7
Operating margin (%)
Interest
6
6
14.5
6
4.6
12
12
(2.2)
44
43
1.6
43
2.6
87
85
2.7
Depreciation
PBT
110
(21)
92
-
88
169
(47.7)
Provision for taxation
13
(1)
37
12
66
(81.7)
0
0
0
0
0
Less: Excep. Items (gains)/ loss
Reported Net profit
96
(20)
55
75.6
76
103
(25.7)
96
(20)
55
75.6
76
103
(25.7)
Adj. Net profit/(loss)
EPS (`)
7.6
-
4.4
6.0
8.1
Source: Company, Angel Research, FY numbers are consolidated
Exhibit 2: 2QFY2018 - Actual vs Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimates
Variation (%)
Net sales
864
870
(0.7)
Other income
11
6
78.0
Operating profit
149
179
(16.5)
Interest
6
6
14.5
Tax
13
27
(51.7)
Adjusted Net profit/(loss)
96
109
(11.2)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenues 2.3% yoy dip mostly in line with our estimates: The formulation
sales (`864cr) posted a yoy de-growth of 3.0%, while API (`194cr) posted a
yoy growth of 3.0%.
Domestic formulation sales (`425cr) posted a yoy growth of 3%, while exports
formulation sales (`234cr) posted a yoy de-growth of 11.0%. Domestic API
sales (`47cr) posted a growth of 16% yoy and export API sales were almost
flat at `146cr.
Overall, for 2QFY2018, exports contributed 44.6% to the top-line, while the
domestic business contributed the rest. The overall contribution of
formulations was at 77.3% of total sales during the quarter compared to
78.3% in 2QFY2017.
November 28, 2017
2
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Domestic sales trend
450
425
404
400
335
350
295
300
277
250
200
150
100
48
38
34
29
36
50
0
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
4QFY2017
1QFY2018
2QFY2018
Formulation
API
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Exports sales trend
300
264
233
236
234
250
224
200
146
146
135
150
128
125
100
50
0
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
4QFY2017
1QFY2018
2QFY2018
Formulation
API
Source: Company, Angel Research
OPM expands yoy, lower than expected: On EBITDA front, the company
posted EBITDA of 17.2% (v/s. 20.5% expected) v/s. 15.3% in 2QFY2017. The
expansion in GPM to 65.9% in 2QFY2018 v/s. 63.9% in 2QFY2017, aided the
OPM expansion.
November 28, 2017
3
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 5: OPM trend
18.0
17.2
15.3
15.0
13.9
12.0
9.0
10.2
6.0
3.0
3.0
0.0
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
4QFY2017
1QFY2018
2QFY2018
Source: Company, Angel Research
Reported net profit: Consequently, the Adj. net profit came in at `96cr (v/s.
`109cr PAT expected) v/s. PAT of `55cr in 2QFY2017. The other income came
in at `11cr v/s. `6.2cr in 2QFY2017.
Exhibit 6: Adj. Net profit trend
110
96
90
70
55
50
41
44
30
10
-10
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
4QFY2017
1QFY2018
2QFY2018
-30
(20)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Concall Highlights
Management expects growth to bounce back in domestic markets to
low-to-mid-teens in coming quarters, led by channel re-filling.
IPCA announced that Global Funds has selected the company as its
panel supplier. At peak, institutional biz revenue was ~`400cr.
IPCA has already invited USFDA for Piparia/Pithampur plants inspection.
Company plans to invite the USFDA for re-inspection at Ratlam plant by
CY2017 end/CY2018 beginning.
EBITDA margin saw a negative impact of ~300bps from GST rollout.
November 28, 2017
4
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Investment arguments
Domestic formulations business
- the cash-cow: Ipca has been
successful in changing its business focus to the high-margin chronic and
lifestyle segments, from the low-margin anti-malarial segment. The
chronic and lifestyle segments comprising CVS, anti-diabetics, pain-
management, CNS and dermatology products constitute more than
50% of the company’s domestic formulation sales. The Management
has ramped up its field force significantly with addition of divisions in the
domestic formulations segment, taking the current total strength to
nearly 4,000 MRs. With an expected pick-up in sales in 2HFY2018 (after
the GST impact reduces), we expect the domestic formulations business
to grow at a CAGR of 10.9% over FY2017-19E.
Exports currently under pressure; should pick-up only by FY2019: On the
formulations front, Ipca has been increasing its penetration in regulated
markets viz. Europe and the US, by expanding the list of generic drugs
backed by its own API. In the emerging and semi-regulated markets,
the company plans to focus on building brands in the CVS, CNS, pain-
management and anti-malarial segments along with tapping new
geographies. On the API front, where the company is among the low-
cost producers, it is aggressively pursuing supply tie-ups with
pharmaceutical MNCs.
After the USFDA inspection at the company’s APl manufacturing facility
at Ratlam (Madhya Pradesh), the company has received certain
inspection observations in Form 483, consequent to which the company
had voluntarily decided to suspend API shipments from this
manufacturing facility to the US markets until the issue is resolved.
However, the Form 483 was converted into an import alert, except for
four API’s, which constituted around 45% of US sales in FY2014.
The company’s Silvassa and Indore facilities (formulation facilities) are
also under import alert. IPCA has already invited USFDA for
Piparia/Pithampur plants inspection. Company plans to invite the USFDA
for re-inspection at Ratlam plant by CY2017 end/CY2018 beginning.
Thus, FY2019 should see some revival. We expect exports to grow at a
CAGR of 2.4% over FY2017-19E.
Outlook & Valuation:
We expect net sales to post a CAGR of 6.6% to `3,647cr, and EPS to register
a CAGR of 28.4% to `25.4cr over FY2017-19E. The company’s financials will
be impacted by the USFDA import alert on the Ratlam, Indore and Silvassa
facilities. While the problems are likely to persist for a while, we expect a
gradual pick-up in performance only by FY2019. However, given the
valuations, we maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock.
November 28, 2017
5
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 7: Key Assumptions
FY2018E
FY2019E
Sales growth (%)
9.0
11.8
Domestic growth (%)
8.0
14.0
Exports growth (%)
(4.6)
10.0
Operating margins (%)
14.1
17.1
Capex (` cr)
200
200
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8: One-year forward PE band
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
10x
15x
20x
25x
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9: Recommendation summary
Company
Reco.
CMP Tgt Price Upside
FY2019E
FY17-19E
FY2019E
(`)
(`)
(%) PE (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) CAGR in EPS (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Alembic Pharma Buy
513
600
16.9
21.5
2.5
13.0
5.7
20.6
18.4
Aurobindo Pharma Accumulate
719
823
14.4
14.0
2.2
10.2
14.2
25.3
22.7
Cadila Healthcare Reduce
444
411
(7.5)
21.7
3.5
17.7
18.9
16.5
22.2
Cipla
Sell
615
462 (24.9)
25.3
2.7
16.1
39.3
10.9
13.1
Dr Reddy's
Reduce
2,297
2,040 (11.2)
22.5
2.6
13.0
18.5
10.3
12.4
Dishman Pharma Under Review
301
-
-
19.3
2.7
11.5
23.3
4.5
4.4
GSK Pharma*
Sell
2,463
2,000 (19.4)
53.6
6.3
39.7
19.3
25.8
23.5
Indoco Remedies Sell
285
136 (20.7)
25.0
2.2
11.7
16.2
10.1
14.5
Ipca labs
Accumulate
533
570
6.9
21.0
1.9
15.9
24.7
12.4
11.0
Lupin
Buy
831
1,091
31.2
16.8
2.0
9.4
(6.6)
13.7
13.7
Sanofi India
Neutral
4,431
-
-
27.0
3.2
17.0
12.8
25.8
27.5
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
550
615
11.8
24.7
3.7
16.6
(17.5)
11.3
14.0
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year ending
November 28, 2017
6
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Company background
Formed in 1949, Ipca Laboratories is a market leader in the anti-malaria’s
and rheumatoid arthritis segments. The company is a notable name in the
domestic formulations category with
150 formulations across major
therapeutic segments like cardiovascular (CVS), anti-diabetes, anti-
malaria, pain-management (NSAID), anti-bacterial, central nervous system
(CNS) and gastro-intestinal. The company has 7 production units, which are
approved by most of the discerning regulatory authorities including USFDA,
UKMHRA, Australia-TGA, South Africa-MCC and Brazil-ANVISA.
November 28, 2017
7
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Profit & loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017 FY2018E FY2019E
Gross sales
3,232
3,157
2,891
3,262
3,308
3,706
Less: Excise duty
33
40
47
51
52
58
Net Sales
3,199
3,117
2,844
3,211
3,256
3,647
Other operating income
82
40
41
23
23
23
Total operating income
3,282
3,157
2,885
3,233
3,278
3,670
% chg
16.7
(3.8)
(8.6)
12.1
1.4
12.0
Total expenditure
2,471
2,613
2,543
2,766
2,798
3,025
Net raw materials
1,137
1,155
1,058
1,110
1,042
1,204
Other mfg costs
250
277
253
286
290
325
Personnel
498
565
627
696
718
804
Other
587
616
606
674
749
693
EBITDA
728
504
301
445
458
622
% chg
29.1
(30.8)
(40.2)
47.7
2.9
35.9
(% of Net Sales)
22.8
16.2
10.6
13.9
14.1
17.1
Depreciation & amortisation
103
180
172
173
187
199
EBIT
625
324
129
272
271
423
% chg
31.1
(48.1)
(60.2)
110.8
(0.4)
56.3
(% of Net Sales)
19.5
10.4
4.5
8.5
8.3
11.6
Interest & other charges
27
28
32
24
21
10
Other Income
22
28
17
-
-
-
(% of PBT)
3.2
7.8
10.9
-
-
-
Recurring PBT
703
364
155
270
273
436
% chg
35.9
(48.2)
(57.5)
74.6
0.9
59.9
Extraordinary expense/(Inc.)
72.2
-
39.5
-
-
-
PBT (reported)
631
364
115
270
273
436
Tax
152.4
101.9
18.6
67.5
68.2
109.0
(% of PBT)
24.2
28.0
16.1
25.0
25.0
25.0
PAT (reported)
478
262
97
203
205
327
Add: Share of earnings of asso.
0
(5)
(3)
(8)
-
-
PAT after MI (reported)
478
254
94
195
205
321
ADJ. PAT
495
254
133
195
205
321
% chg
45.6
(48.6)
(47.6)
46.0
5.1
56.9
(% of Net Sales)
14.9
8.2
3.3
6.1
6.3
8.8
Basic EPS (`)
39.2
20.1
10.6
15.4
16.2
25.4
Fully Diluted EPS (`)
39.2
20.1
10.6
15.4
16.2
25.4
% chg
45.6
(48.6)
(47.6)
46.0
5.1
56.9
November 28, 2017
8
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Balance sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017 FY2018E FY2019E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital
25
25
25
25
25
25
Reserves & surplus
1,934
2,183
2,281
2,430
2,620
2,926
Shareholders Funds
1,960
2,208
2,306
2,455
2,645
2,951
Minority interest
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total loans
603
829
595
529
300
100
Other Long Term Liabilities
1
-
-
-
-
-
Long Term Provisions
15
22
23
26
26
26
Deferred tax liability
147
174
169
170
170
170
Total Liabilities
2,726
3,233
3,094
3,181
3,142
3,248
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block
1,882
2,626
2,760
2,914
3,114
3,314
Less: Acc. depreciation
578
758
930
1,103
1,290
1,489
Net Block
1,303
1,868
1,830
1,811
1,824
1,825
Goodwill
50
34
102
102
102
102
165
165
165
165
165
165
Capital work-in-progress
Investments
9
16
96
136
136
136
Long Term Loans and Adv.
71
115
108
125
123
138
Current assets
1,602
1,614
1,522
1,620
1,626
1,816
Cash
76
125
162
36
13
15
67
47
38
43
50
50
Loans & advances
Other
1,459
1,442
1,322
1,542
1,563
1,751
Current liabilities
485
579
729
779
835
935
Net Current Assets
1,117
1,035
793
842
792
881
Other Non current Assets
9
-
-
Total Assets
2,725
3,233
3,094
3,181
3,142
3,248
November 28, 2017
9
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Cash flow statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018E FY2019E
Profit before tax
631
364
115
270
273
436
Depreciation
103
180
172
173
187
199
(Inc)/Dec in working capital
(193)
88
286
(193)
29
(103)
Direct taxes paid
(152)
(102)
(19)
(68)
(68)
(109)
Cash Flow from Operations
389
530
555
183
421
423
(Inc.)/Dec.in fixed assets
(380)
(745)
(134)
(154)
(200)
(200)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments
-
-
-
-
-
-
Cash Flow from Investing
(380)
(745)
(134)
(154)
(200)
(200)
Issue of Equity
-
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
83
232
(232)
(63)
(229)
(200)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(74)
(15)
(15)
(15)
(15)
(15)
Others
1
47
(69)
(77)
-
(6)
Cash Flow from Financing
10
264
(316)
(155)
(244)
(221)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
18
49
37
(126)
(23)
3
Opening Cash balances
58
76
125
162
36
13
Closing Cash balances
76
125
162
36
13
15
November 28, 2017
10
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017 FY2018E FY2019E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
13.6
26.5
50.5
34.6
32.9
21.0
P/CEPS
11.2
15.5
22.0
18.3
17.2
12.9
P/BV
3.4
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
Dividend yield (%)
0.9
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
EV/Sales
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.2
2.1
1.8
EV/EBITDA
9.9
14.6
23.5
16.0
15.1
10.8
EV / Total Assets
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.1
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
39.2
20.1
10.6
15.4
16.2
25.4
EPS (fully diluted)
39.2
20.1
10.6
15.4
16.2
25.4
Cash EPS
47.4
34.4
24.2
29.1
31.0
41.2
DPS
5.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Book Value
155.3
175.0
182.7
194.6
209.6
233.9
DuPont Analysis
EBIT margin
19.5
10.4
4.5
8.5
8.3
11.6
Tax retention ratio
75.8
72.0
83.9
75.0
75.0
75.0
Asset turnover (x)
1.4
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.2
ROIC (Post-tax)
20.2
8.2
3.6
6.8
6.5
10.0
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
3.6
2.9
3.7
3.2
3.8
3.8
Leverage (x)
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
Operating ROE
24.9
9.8
3.6
7.4
6.9
10.5
Returns (%)
RoCE (Pre-tax)
25.3
10.9
4.1
8.7
8.6
13.3
Angel RoIC (Pre-tax)
27.7
12.0
4.5
9.5
9.1
14.1
RoE
28.2
12.2
5.9
8.2
8.0
11.5
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
1.9
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
Inventory / Sales (days)
88
103
111
91
91
90
Receivables (days)
48
46
46
49
49
49
Payables (days)
45
43
90
61
64
63
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)
106
113
97
81
88
82
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
Net debt to EBITDA
0.7
1.4
1.4
1.1
0.6
0.1
Int. Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
23.3
11.4
4.1
11.3
13.1
42.3
November 28, 2017
11
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
Angel Broking Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of
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Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration number INH000000164. Angel or its associates has not been debarred/
suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities Market. Angel or its
associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the
company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any
investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this
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available on our website to evaluate the contrary view, if any.
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Ipca Laboratories
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
November 28, 2017
12