4QFY2017 Result Update | IT
May 15, 2017
HCL Technologies
BUY
CMP
`847
Performance Highlights
Target Price
`1,014
(` cr) - Consl.
4QFY17
3QFY17
% chg (qoq)
4QFY16
% chg (yoy)
Investment Period
12 Months
Net revenue
12,053
11,814
2.0
10,698
12.7
Stock Info
EBIT
2,416
2,408
0.3
2,222
8.7
EBIT margin (%)
20.0
20.4
(34)bp
20.8
(73)ps
Sector
IT
PAT
2,325
2,070
12.3
1,926
20.7
Market Cap (` cr)
1,20,898
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net Debt (` cr)
(12140)'
Beta
0.4
The company posted 4QFY2017 results better than expected. In US$ terms, the
52 Week High / Low
890/707
revenues came in at US$1,817mn (v/s US$1,810mn expected) v/s US$1,745mn
Avg. Daily Volume
37,534
in 3QFY2017, a qoq growth of
4.1%. On Constant Currency (CC) basis,
Face Value (`)
2
company posted a 3.8% qoq growth. On the operating front, EBIT came in at
BSE Sensex
30,188
20.0% (v/s 20.1% expected) v/s 20.4% in 3QFY2017, a dip of 34bps qoq. Thus,
Nifty
9,401
PAT came in at 2,325cr (v/s `1,982cr expected) v/s `2,070cr in 3QFY2017, up
12.3% qoq. For FY'2018, revenues are expected to grow 10.5-12.5% in Constant
Reuters Code
HCLT.BO
Currency (CC) and EBIT Margin of 19.5-20.5%. We maintain our buy.
Bloomberg Code
[email protected]
Quarterly highlights: In US$ terms, the revenues came in at US$1,817mn v/s
US$1,745mn in 3QFY2017, a qoq growth of 4.1%. On Constant Currency (CC)
Shareholding Pattern (%)
basis, company posted a 3.8% qoq growth. On the growth front, USA posted a
Promoters
59.7
CC qoq growth of 5.3%, Europe posted a dip of 3.0% CC and ROW posted a CC
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
11.8
qoq growth of 15.8%. In terms of verticals, Financial Services posted a CC qoq
FII / NRIs / OCBs
25.1
growth of 3.0%, Manufacturing posted a CC qoq growth of 6.3%, Life sciences &
Indian Public / Others
3.5
Healthcare posted a CC qoq growth of 0.1%, Public Services posted a CC qoq
growth of 8.1%, while Retail & CPG posted a CC qoq growth of 2.1%. On the
operating front, EBIT came in at 20% (v/s 20.1% expected) v/s 20.4% in
Abs.(%)
3m
1yr
3yr
3QFY2017, a dip of 34bps qoq. Thus, PAT came in at 2,325cr (v/s `1,982cr
Sensex
6.5
17.1
28.2
expected) v/s `2,070cr in 3QFY2017, up 12.3% qoq.
HCL Tech
2.5
18.3
21.9
Outlook and valuation: We expect HCL Tech to post a USD and INR revenue
CAGR of 10.7% and 10.7% respectively over FY2017-19E. On the back of strong
order book and given the attractive valuations, we recommend a Buy on the stock.
3-year price chart
Key financials (Consolidated, US GAAP)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Net sales
30,781
46,723
52,342
57,053
% chg
(16.9)
51.8
12.0
9.0
Net profit
5,643
8,457
8,860
9,536
% chg
(22.2)
49.9
4.8
7.6
EBITDA margin (%)
21.5
22.1
20.9
20.9
EPS (`)
40.0
60.0
62.8
67.6
P/E (x)
21.2
14.1
13.5
12.5
P/BV (x)
4.3
3.6
3.0
2.6
Source: Company, Angel Research
RoE (%)
20.1
25.3
22.4
20.6
Sarabjit kour Nangra
RoCE (%)
15.6
20.4
18.3
17.3
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6806
EV/Sales (x)
3.6
2.3
2.0
1.7
[email protected]
EV/EBITDA (x)
16.6
10.5
9.5
8.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of May 12, 2017
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
HCL Technologies | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 4QFY2017 performance (Consolidated, US GAAP)
Y/E March (` cr)
4QFY17
3QFY17
% chg (qoq)
4QFY16
% chg (yoy)
FY17
FY16
% chg(yoy)
Net revenue
12,053
11,814
2.0
10,698
12.7
46,723
40,913
14.2
Cost of revenue
7,987
7,809
2.3
6,961
14.7
30,890
26,901
14.8
Gross profit
4,066
4,005
1.5
3,737
8.8
15,833
14,012
13.0
SG&A expense
1,417
1,377
2.9
1,358
4.3
5,524
5,217
5.9
EBITDA
2,649
2,628
0.8
2,379
11.3
10,309
8,795
17.2
Dep. and
233
220
5.9
157
48.4
835
569
46.7
amortization
EBIT
2,416
2,408
0.3
2,222
8.7
9,474
8,226
15.2
Other income
215
231
(6.9)
200
7.5
934
1,009
(7.4)
PBT
2,631
2,639
(0.3)
2,422
8.6
10,408
9,235
12.7
Income tax
303
568
(46.7)
497
(39.0)
1,952
1,883
3.7
PAT
2,325
2,070
12.3
1,926
20.7
8,456
7,352
15.0
Forex gain/(loss)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Adjusted PAT
2,325
2,070
12.3
1,926
20.7
8,456
7,352
15.0
EPS
16.5
14.7
12.3
13.7
20.7
60.0
52.1
15.0
Gross margin (%)
33.7
33.9
(17)bp
34.9
(120)bps
33.9
34.2
(36)bp
EBITDA margin (%)
22.0
22.2
(27)bp
22.2
(26)bps
22.1
21.5
57bp
EBIT margin (%)
20.0
20.4
(34)bp
20.8
(73)ps
20.3
20.1
17bp
PAT margin (%)
19.3
17.5
179bp
18.0
131bps
18.1
18.0
13bp
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note-FY2016 is 12month results for meaningful comparison, From FY2017, company has March ending company
Exhibit 2: 4QFY2017 - Actual Vs Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimate
Variation (%)
Net revenue
12,053
12,064
(0.1)
EBIDTA margin (%)
22.0
21.9
59bp
PAT
2,325
1,982
17.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
Sales just in-line with expectation
On the revenue front, the company posted a 4.1% sequential growth in USD
revenues to US$1,817mn (v/s US$1,810mn expected) v/s US$1,745mn in
3QFY2017. Revenue in Constant Currency (CC) was up 3.8% qoq. In Rupee
terms, revenues came in at `12,053cr (v/s `12,064cr expected) v/s `11,814cr in
3QFY2017, up 2.0% qoq.
On the growth front, USA posted a CC qoq growth of 5.3%, Europe posted a dip
of 3.0% CC and ROW posted a CC qoq growth of 15.8%. In terms of verticals, the
Financial Services posted a CC qoq growth of 3.0%, Manufacturing posted a CC
qoq growth of 6.3%, Life sciences & Healthcare posted a CC qoq growth of 0.1%,
Public Services posted a CC qoq growth of 8.1%, while Retail & CPG posted a CC
qoq growth of 2.1%. The vertical which posted a dip was Telecommunication,
Media, and Publishing & Entertainment which came in at 2.1%.
May 15, 2017
2
HCL Technologies | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Revenue growth trend
Source: Company, Angel Research
In terms of services, Engineering & R&D services (which constituted 20.5% of sales)
posted a growth of 14.6% qoq (CC), while Application services (accounting for
36.8% of sales) grew by 1.8% qoq (CC). Infrastructure services, another important
segment of the company, which contributes around 38.8% to overall sales, posted
a growth of 0.9% qoq (CC). Business services, which constituted 3.9% of sales,
grew by 0.2% qoq (CC).
Exhibit 4: Revenue growth trend (Service wise)
% of revenue
% growth CC (qoq)
% growth (yoy)
Application services
36.8
1.8
7.2
Infrastructure services
38.8
0.9
24.8
Business services
3.9
0.2
(11.7)
Engineering and R&D services
20.5
14.6
26.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
Industry segment wise, the company’s Financial Services vertical (contributing
24.2% to revenue) posted a 3% qoq growth in CC terms. The Manufacturing
vertical (contributing 34.6% to revenue) posted a 6.3% qoq growth in CC terms.
Public services, Life sciences & Healthcare, and Telecommunication, Media,
Publishing & Entertainment reported a qoq growth of 8.1%, 2.1% and (2.1)%, all in
CC terms, respectively. Retail & CPG (contributing 9.2% of the revenue), on the
other hand, reported a growth of 2.1% qoq CC terms, during the quarter.
May 15, 2017
3
HCL Technologies | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 5: Revenue growth trend (Industry wise)
% of revenue
% growth (CC qoq)
% growth (yoy)
Financial services
24.2
3.0
13.4
Manufacturing
34.6
6.3
27.4
Life sciences & Healthcare
11.5
0.1
3.5
Public Services
11.7
8.1
22.4
Retail & CPG
9.2
2.1
17.2
Telecom, MPE
8.4
(2.1)
(2.6)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Among geographies, in CC terms, America grew by 5.3% qoq, RoW grew by
15.8% qoq, while Europe de-grew by 3.0% qoq, during the period.
Exhibit 6: Revenue growth trend (Geography wise in CC terms)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Hiring and utilization
During the quarter, the overall headcount of HCL Tech increased by 10,426 to
1,15,973 employees. The attrition rate in IT Services inched downwards to 16.9%
(v/s 17.9% in 3QFY2017) and the blended utilization level of the company inched
up to 85.7% (v/s 84.6% in 3QFY2017).
Exhibit 7: Hiring trend
Particulars
3QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
Technical
95,649
98,225
99,897
1,01,154
1,05,547
Support
9,247
9,743
9,898
9,938
10,426
Total employee base
104,896
107,968
109,795
1,11,092
1,15,973
Gross addition
9,280
10,515
9,083
8,467
10,605
Net addition
1,200
3.072
2,097
3,124
6,178
Attrition - IT services (LTM) - %
17.3
17.8
18.6
17.9
16.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
May 15, 2017
4
HCL Technologies | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Operating margin just in line with the expectation
On the operating front, the EBDITA margins came in at 22.0% (v/s 22.2% in
3QFY2017), a qoq dip of 27bp, while the EBIT margins came in at 20.0%, a qoq
dip of 34bp. This was against the EBDITA & EBIT margin expectations of 21.9% &
20.1% respectively.
Exhibit 8: Margin profile
Source: Company, Angel Research
Client pyramid
The company signed
8 transformational deals this quarter. These deals
represented a well-balanced mix across service lines, industry verticals and
geographies. This takes the total number of transformational wins to 42 for
FY’2017. Company added 5 clients in the US$50+mn and 3 in the US$20+mn.
Exhibit 9: Client pyramid
Particulars
3QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
US$1mn-5mn
267
262
245
259
260
US$5mn-10mn
87
84
91
89
93
US$10mn-20mn
66
49
66
64
68
US$20mn-30mn
32
35
32
33
36
US$30mn-40mn
16
16
16
15
15
US$40mn-50mn
4
5
12
14
9
US$50mn-100mn
12
10
13
12
17
US$100mn plus
7
7
7
8
8
Source: Company, Angel Research
May 15, 2017
5
HCL Technologies | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Investment arguments
Robust outlook for FY2018: On the basis of deals on hand, the company gave a
revenue growth guidance of 10.5-12.5% in CC for FY2018, which includes a
component of inorganic growth, adjusting for which, the organic growth would be
7.5-9.5% in CC for FY2018. The operating margin (EBIT) for FY’2018 is expected
to be in the range of 19.5-20.5%. We expect HCL Tech to post a USD and INR
revenue CAGR of 10.7% and 10.7% respectively, over FY2017-19E (inclusive of
the acquisition of Geometric Software and Volvo deals).
Healthy pipeline: HCL Tech signed 8 transformational deals this quarter, across
service lines and industry verticals. The broad-based business wins were driven by
next-generation integrated offerings - Next-Gen ITO, BEYONDigital, and IoT
WoRKS, reflecting investments in Internet of Things, digital technologies, cloud,
automation and artificial intelligence. Company added 5 clients in the US$50+mn
and 3 in the US$20+mn. Overall, in FY2017 the company added 42 clients.
Outlook and valuation
On the operating front, HCL Tech’s EBIT margin had been around 19.3% in
FY2017, a dip of 1000bp over the previous financial year. With the acquisition of
Geometric Software and Volvo, we expect the EBIT margin to be under pressure
during FY2017. We expect the EBIT and PAT to post a 7.9% and 7.1% CAGR
respectively over FY2017-19E. At the current market price, the stock is trading at
13.5x FY2018E and 12.5x FY2019E EPS. We recommend a Buy, with a price
target of `1,014.
Exhibit 10: One-year forward PE (x) chart
Source: Company, Angel Research
May 15, 2017
6
HCL Technologies | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 11: Recommendation summary
Company
Reco
CMP
Tgt Price
Upside
FY2018E
FY2018E
FY2016-18E
FY2018E
FY2018E
(`)
(`)
(%)
EBITDA (%)
P/E (x)
EPS CAGR (%)
EV/Sales (x)
RoE (%)
HCL Tech
Buy
847
1,014
19.7
20.9
13.5
3.0
2.0
22.4
Infosys
Buy
964
1,179
22.3
26.0
15.1
4.4
2.6
19.7
TCS
Accumulate
2,360
2,651
12.4
27.6
16.3
8.5
3.3
29.7
Tech Mahindra
Buy
442
600
35.7
17.0
11.1
11.4
1.0
20.7
Wipro
Accumulate
507
570
12.5
20.3
13.9
4.0
1.4
14.6
Source: Company, Angel Research
Company Background
HCL Tech is India's fifth largest IT services company, with over
1,00,000
employees catering to more than 450 clients. The company's service offerings
include Enterprise Application Services (EAS), Custom Applications, Engineering
Research & Development (ERD), and Infrastructure Management Services (IMS). In
December 2008, HCL Tech acquired UK-based SAP consulting company - Axon,
which now contributes
~10% to its consolidated revenue. Recently, during
3QFY2016, the company acquired Geometric Software.
May 15, 2017
7
HCL Technologies | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Profit and loss statement (Consolidated, US GAAP)
Y/E Mar (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Net sales
37,061
30,781
46,723
52,342
57,053
Cost of revenues
23,798
20,235
30,890
34,598
37,712
Gross profit
13,263
10,546
15,833
17,744
19,341
% of net sales
35.8
34.3
33.9
33.9
33.9
SG&A expenses
4,563
3,940
5,524
6,804
7,417
% of net sales
12.3
12.8
11.8
13.0
13.0
EBITDA
8,700
6,606
10,309
10,939
11,924
% of net sales
23.5
21.5
22.1
20.9
20.9
Depreciation and amort.
451
393
835
935
1085
% of net sales
1.2
1.3
1.8
1.8
1.9
EBIT
8,249
6,213
9,474
10,004
10,839
% of net sales
22.3
20.2
20.3
19.1
19.0
Other income, net
912
756
934
934
934
Profit before tax
9,161
6,969
10,408
10,938
11,773
Provision for tax
1,908
1,364
1,952
2,078
2,237
% of PBT
20.8
19.6
18.8
19.0
19.0
PAT
7,253
5,605
8,457
8,860
9,536
Share from equity invest.
-
-
-
-
-
Forex loss
-
-
-
-
-
ESOP charges
103
38
-
-
-
Reported net profit
7,253
5,643
8,457
8,860
9,536
Fully diluted EPS (`)
51.4
40.0
60.0
62.8
67.6
Note: FY2016 Numbers are 9 month figures
May 15, 2017
8
HCL Technologies | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Balance sheet (Consolidated, US GAAP)
Y/E Mar (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Cash and cash equivalent
1,352
729
1,317
1,500
1,700
Account receivables, net
6,563
7,721
8,301
9,039
9,853
Unbilled receivables
2,923
3,002
2,501
3,141
3,423
Deposit with banks
9,670
10,587
10,220
14,102
20,059
Deposit (one year with HDFC ltd)
-
-
-
-
-
Invest. securities, available for sale
767
537
1,146
2,250
2,251
Other current assets
2,338
2,410
2,983
3,283
3,583
Total current assets
23,613
24,986
26,468
33,315
40,870
Property and equipment, net
3,820
4,323
4,681
4,981
5,281
Intangible assets, net
5,204
6,419
11,426
11,426
11,426
Deposits with HDFC Ltd.
-
-
-
-
-
Fixed deposits with banks
-
-
-
-
-
Investment securities HTM
8
160
147
147
147
Investment in equity investee
-
-
-
-
-
Other assets
3,066
3,879
3,712
4,780
4,780
Total assets
35,711
39,768
46,432
54,648
62,502
Current liabilities
9,232
9,509
11,148
12,483
13,606
Borrowings
469
973
542
542
542
Other liabilities
1,259
1,264
1,253
2,078
2,078
Total liabilities
10,960
11,745
12,942
15,103
16,226
Minority interest
-
-
-
-
Total stockholder equity
24,751
28,022
33,490
39,545
46,276
Total liab. and stock holder equity
35,711
39,767
46,432
54,648
62,502
Note: FY2016 Numbers are 9 month figures
May 15, 2017
9
HCL Technologies | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Cash flow statement (Consolidated, US GAAP)
Y/E Mar (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E FY2019E
Pre tax profit from operations
7,253
5,643
8,457
8,860
9,536
Depreciation
451
393
835
935
1,085
Expenses (deffered)/written off/others
(168)
(48)
(48)
(48)
(48)
Pre tax cash from operations
7,536
5,988
9,244
9,747
10,573
Other income/prior period ad
912
756
934
934
934
Net cash from operations
8,448
6,744
10,178
10,681
11,507
Tax
(1,908)
(1,364)
(1,952)
(2,078)
(2,237)
Cash profits
6,540
5,381
8,226
8,603
9,270
(Inc)/dec in current assets
(1,991)
(1,309)
(653)
(1,677)
(1,396)
Inc/(dec) in current liabilties
1,035
277
1,639
1,335
1,123
Net trade working capital
(956)
(1,033)
987
(342)
(273)
Cashflow from operating activities
5,584
4,348
9,213
8,261
8,998
(Inc)/dec in fixed assets
(674)
(503)
(358)
(300)
(300)
(Inc)/dec in intangibles
(55)
(1,215)
(5,006)
-
-
(Inc)/dec in investments
(1,458)
(687)
(242)
(4,987)
(5,958)
(Inc)/dec in minority interest
-
-
-
-
-
Inc/(dec) in non current liabilities
(203)
5
(11)
-
-
(Inc)/dec in non current assets
(214)
(72)
(573)
(300)
(300)
Cashflow from investing activities
(2,602)
(2,473)
(6,189)
(5,587)
(6,558)
Inc/(dec) in debt
-
-
-
-
-
Inc/(dec) in equity/premium
-
-
-
-
-
ESOP charges
(103)
(103)
(103)
(103)
(103)
Dividends
(1,651)
(2,805)
(2,805)
(2,805)
(2,805)
Others
(208)
2,385
614
1,551
1,969
Cashflow from financing activities
(1,962)
(523)
(2,294)
(1,357)
(939)
Cash generated/(utilised)
331
(623)
587
184
200
Cash at start of the year
1,021
1,352
729
1,317
1,500
Cash at end of the year
1,352
729
1,317
1,500
1,700
Note: FY2016 Numbers are 9 month figures
May 15, 2017
10
HCL Technologies | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Key ratios
Y/E Mar
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Valuation ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
16.5
21.2
14.1
13.5
12.5
P/CEPS
15.5
19.8
12.9
12.2
11.3
P/BVPS
4.8
4.3
3.6
3.0
2.6
Dividend yield (%)
1.7
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
EV/Sales
3.0
3.6
2.3
2.0
1.7
EV/EBITDA
12.6
16.6
10.5
9.5
8.2
EV/Total assets
3.1
2.8
2.3
1.9
1.6
Per share data (`)
EPS (Fully diluted)
51.4
40.0
60.0
62.8
67.6
Cash EPS
54.6
42.8
65.9
69.4
75.3
Dividend
14.0
17.0
17.0
17.0
17.0
Book value
175
199
237
280
328
Dupont analysis
Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT)
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT)
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales)
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets)
1.0
0.8
1.0
1.0
0.9
Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity)
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
Operating ROE
29.3
20.0
25.3
22.4
20.6
Return ratios (%)
RoCE (pre-tax)
23.1
15.6
20.4
18.3
17.3
Angel RoIC
34.5
22.4
28.2
27.3
28.3
RoE
29.3
20.1
25.3
22.4
20.6
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset turnover (fixed assets)
10.6
7.6
10.4
10.8
11.1
Receivables days
68
83
78
67
66
Note: FY2016 Numbers are 9 month figures
May 15, 2017
11
HCL Technologies | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
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HCL Technologies
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
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Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)