4QFY2017 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
May 22, 2017
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals
NEUTRAL
CMP
`2,428
Performance Highlights
Target Price
-
Y/E Mar (` cr)
4QFY2017
3QFY2017
% chg (QoQ)
4QFY2016
% chg (YoY)
Investment Period
-
Net Sales
763
689
10.8
688
10.9
Stock Info
Other income
35
38
(6.6)
58
(39.5)
Sector
Pharmaceutical
Gross profit
402
332
21.1
381
5.7
Market Cap (` cr)
20,566
Operating profit
116
35
232.2
111
5.0
Net Debt (` cr)
(936)
Adj. PAT
Beta
0.20
87
41
112.3
95
(9.2)
Source: Company, Angel Research
52 Week High / Low
3,850/2,397
Avg. Daily Volume
1,118
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals (GSK) posted better than expected results on
sales and OPM fronts for 4QFY2017. The revenues came in at `763cr v/s
Face Value (`)
10
`690cr expected, registering a yoy growth of 10.9%. On the OPM front, the
BSE Sensex
30,465
EBDITA margins came in at 15.2% (v/s 11.3% expected) as compared to 16.1%
Nifty
9,428
in 4QFY2016. The Adj. PAT for the quarter came in at `86.7cr v/s `95.4cr in
Reuters Code
GLAX.BO
4QFY2016, a yoy dip of 9.2%. Given the valuations we maintain our Neutral.
Bloomberg Code
[email protected]
Results better than expectations: The revenues came in at `763cr v/s `690cr
Shareholding Pattern (%)
expected, registering a yoy growth of 10.9%. On the OPM front, the EBDITA margins
Promoters
75.0
came in at 15.2% (v/s 11.3% expected) as compared to 16.1% in 4QFY2016. The
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
10.8
expansion in margin was on the back of lower than expected employee and other
FII / NRIs / OCBs
2.1
expenses, which grew by 8.0% and 4.6% yoy respectively. The Adj. PAT during the
Indian Public / Others
12.1
quarter came in at `86.7cr v/s `95.4cr in 4QFY2016, a yoy dip of 9.2%.
Outlook and valuation: Company has a strong balance sheet with cash of ~`900cr,
which could be used for future acquisitions or higher dividend payouts. On the
Abs. (%)
3m 1yr
3yr
operational front, we expect the company’s net sales to post a CAGR of 12.2% to
Sensex
5.9
21.2
25.4
`3,685cr, while the EPS is expected to post a CAGR of 31.7% over FY2017-19E. We
Glaxo
(9.2)
(27.7)
(5.3)
remain Neutral on the stock.
Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E Mar (` cr)
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
3-year price chart
Net sales
4,000
2,741
2,927
3,290
3,685
% chg
3,500
(16.2)
6.8
12.4
12.0
Net profit
374
291
420
505
3,000
% chg
(26.5)
(22.2)
44.4
20.1
2,500
EPS (`)
44.2
34.4
49.6
59.6
2,000
EBITDA (%)
16.5
11.8
16.2
18.1
1,500
P/E (x)
55.0
70.7
48.9
40.7
RoE (%)
18.7
13.9
21.3
26.5
RoCE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
19.4
14.0
22.3
29.1
P/BV (x)
9.4
10.2
10.6
10.9
EV/Sales (x)
7.0
6.7
6.1
5.5
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
EV/EBITDA (x)
42.5
56.8
37.3
30.4
+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6806
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of May 22, 2016;
[email protected]
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Glaxo Pharma | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 4QFY2017 - Standalone performance
Y/E March (` cr)
4QFY2017
3QFY2017
% chg (QoQ)
4QFY2016
% chg (YoY)
FY2017
FY2016
% chg
Net Sales
763
689
10.8
688
10.9
2,921
2,753
6.1
Other income
35
38
(6.6)
58
(39.5)
145
197
(26.3)
Total Income
799
727
9.9
746
7.0
3,066
2,950
3.9
Gross profit
402
332
21.1
381
5.7
1,527
1,525
0.1
Gross margin
52.7
48.2
55.3
52.3
55.4
Operating profit
116
35
232.2
111
5.0
346
404
(14.2)
Operating margin (%)
15.2
5.1
16.1
11.9
14.7
Interest
0
0
-
0
-
0
0
-
Depreciation & Amortization
8
7
17.9
7
15.9
26
25
5.6
PBT & Exceptional Items
144
66
117.6
162
(11.4)
465
576
(19.2)
Less : Exceptional Items
26
12
-
10
-
46
2
Profit before tax
170
78
116.9
173
(1.7)
511
577
(11.5)
Provision for taxation
57
25
126.1
56
1.1
174
201
(13.5)
Reported PAT
113
53
112.6
79
42.7
337
375
(10.1)
Adj. Net profit
87
41
112.3
95
(9.2)
291
373
(22.0)
EPS (`)
10.2
4.8
11.3
34.4
44.0
Source: Company, Angel Research,
Exhibit 2: 4QFY2017 - Actual Vs Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimates
Variation (%)
Net sales
10.6
763
690
Other income
(29.4)
35
50
Operating profit
48.9
116
78
Tax
126.1
57
25
Adj. net profit
(9.8)
87
96
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue grew by 10.9% yoy
The revenues came in at `763cr v/s `690cr expected, registering a yoy growth of
10.9%. For FY’2017, the sales grew by 6.1% yoy to end the period at `2,921cr.
The sales during the year were impacted on the back of the mandatory price cuts.
The current quarter saw a bit of bounce back, with company posting sales growth
in-line with the Industry.
May 23, 2017
2
Glaxo Pharma | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Sales trend
783
800
40.0
763
35.0
686
685
689
30.0
700
25.0
20.0
600
15.0
10.0
5.0
500
0.0
(5.0)
400
(10.0)
4QFY2016 1QFY2017 2QFY2017 3QFY2017 4QFY2017
Sales
Growth (YoY)
Source: Company, Angel Research
OPM comes higher than expected at 15.2%
On the OPM front, the EBDITA margins came in at 15.2% (v/s 11.3% expected) as
compared to 16.1% in 4QFY2016. The margin expansion happened on back of
lower than expected employee and other expenses, which grew by 8.0% and 4.6%
yoy respectively. The higher than expected margin expansion was on the back of
the low growth in other expenses and employee expenses.
Exhibit 4: OPM trend
25.0
20.0
16.1
15.0
10.2
15.2
10.0
5.1
5.1
5.0
0.0
4QFY2016 1QFY2017 2QFY2017 3QFY2017 4QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net profit lower than estimated
The Adj. PAT during the quarter came in at `86.7cr v/s `95.4cr in 4QFY2016, a
yoy dip of 9.2%. The reported profit came in at `112.6cr v/s `105.8cr, a yoy
growth of 6.4%. Also, during the quarter the company posted an exceptional net
gain of `25.9cr, which was related to the sale of properties and proceeds from
sale of the non-core brands.
May 23, 2017
3
Glaxo Pharma | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 5: Adjusted net profit trend
150
99
96
100
87
70
50
41
0
4QFY2016 1QFY2017 2QFY2017 3QFY2017 4QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
May 23, 2017
4
Glaxo Pharma | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Recommendation rationale
Renewed focus on the Indian market: GSK is among the top ten players in the
Indian pharmaceutical market, having a market share of ~3.7%. Unlike other
MNCs, the company has been amongst the few which have taken initiatives to
grow their businesses in the Indian market with consistent launch of new products.
Over the last six years, the company has strategically decided to expand its
presence in the Specialty segment. The Specialty segment’s contribution to sales
has reached 23% (as of 2013). Another segment which is strong for the company
is the area of vaccines, where GSK Vaccines has become the leading company in
the private market for vaccines in India. The recently introduced vaccine for
pneumococcal conjugate disease, Synflorix, has become the biggest brand in the
vaccine portfolio of the company in the second year of its launch. The efforts of the
company in raising awareness about vaccines and preventable diseases continue
with increasing fervor. Also, in FY2015, GlaxoSmithKline Plc (Glaxo), London, UK,
entered into three inter-conditional agreements with Novartis AG (Novartis), Basel,
Switzerland. In one such agreement, Glaxo agreed to acquire Novartis’ vaccines
business (excluding influenza vaccine) and its manufacturing capabilities and
facilities, and in the second agreement, Glaxo agreed to sell the rights of its
Marketed Oncology Portfolio, related R&D activities and AKT Inhibitors currently in
development to Novartis. Globally, these transactions with Novartis were
completed on March 2, 2015.
On the other hand, its other key segments like mass markets and mass specialty,
which contribute 60% of its sales, de-grew by 12% in CY2013. This was as a result
of a number of products of the company having come under the DPCO 2013
ruling, resulting in reduction in prices of its drugs, which impacted its sales in
CY2013. Along with this, the supply constraints, mainly from local supplies during
FY2015, have been impacting its performance. FY2017 was another year, where
the company’s, sales got impacted on back of the government’s pricing cuts.
Overall, for FY2017-19E, we expect the domestic formulation business of the
company to grow at a CAGR of 12.2%.
Significant capex plans ahead indicate revival in growth: Global pharmaceutical
major Glaxo announced
`864cr investment in India to set up a medicine
manufacturing unit. The new facility will substantially increase the company’s
manufacturing base. The drug maker is proactively building capacity in the country
as it delivers its portfolio of products in areas such as gastroenterology and anti-
inflammatory medicines. When complete, the factory will make pharmaceutical
products for the Indian market at a rate of up to 8bn tablets and 1bn capsules a
year. The facility, expected to be operational by 2017, will include a warehouse,
site infrastructure, and utilities to support the manufacturing and packing of
medicines. It showcases GSK's latest commitment to its manufacturing network in
India where the company has invested `1,017cr over the last decade. The
development is positive and comes after a long lull in terms of investments.
May 23, 2017
5
Glaxo Pharma | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Outlook and valuation
GSK has a strong balance sheet with cash of ~`900cr, which could be used for
future acquisitions or higher dividend payouts. The company’s parent company
Glaxo increased stake in it through a voluntary open offer, after which Glaxo holds
75% stake in the Indian subsidiary. The buy-back of shares is a strong indicator
from the Management towards the performance of its listed Indian entity,
especially as it comes after the recent `864cr investment plan announced by the
company to further its growth prospects in the Indian pharmaceuticals market. The
said investments are expected to fructify by 2017.
On the operational front, we expect the company’s net sales to post a CAGR of
12.2% to `3,685cr and EPS to register a CAGR of 31.7% to `59.6 over FY2017-
19E. At current level, the stock is trading at 48.9x and 40.7x its FY2018E and
FY2019E earnings respectively. We remain Neutral on the stock.
Exhibit 6: Key assumptions
FY2018E
FY2019E
Sales growth (%)
12.4
12.0
Growth in employee expenses (%)
12.4
8.6
Operating margin (%)
16.2
18.1
Capex (` cr)
200
200
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: One-year forward PE
5,500
4,500
3,500
2,500
1,500
500
Price
18x
30x
42x
54x
Source: Company, Angel Research
May 23, 2017
6
Glaxo Pharma | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 8: Recommendation summary
Company
Reco
CMP
Tgt. price
Upside
FY2018E
FY16-18E
FY2018E
(`)
(`)
% PE (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) CAGR in EPS (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Alembic Pharma
Accumulate
600
648
8.0
23.5
2.7
13.1
(10.8)
27.5
25.3
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
576
877
52.2
12.2
2.0
8.6
18.1
22.5
26.1
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
456
-
-
23.8
3.7
17.3
13.5
23.6
27.1
Cipla
Sell
561
465
(17.0)
22.9
2.6
15.4
14.2
12.2
13.9
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
2,608
-
-
21.8
2.8
12.5
(13.7)
10.8
13.6
Dishman Pharma
Sell
291
143
(50.9)
25.7
2.8
12.3
16.3
13.0
13.5
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,428
-
-
48.9
6.1
37.3
6.0
22.3
21.3
Indoco Remedies
Buy
203
240
18.2
12.7
1.5
8.2
33.2
19.1
20.1
Ipca labs
Buy
520
613
17.9
27.1
1.9
12.1
34.8
8.6
9.5
Lupin
Buy
1,263
1,809
43.2
18.2
3.0
11.2
17.2
24.4
20.9
Sanofi India
Neutral
4,102
-
-
29.3
3.4
20.1
16.8
22.5
26.4
Sun Pharma
Buy
640
847
32.3
18.1
3.8
11.5
26.5
18.9
20.1
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * December year ending;
May 23, 2017
7
Glaxo Pharma | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Company Background
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals (GSK) is the sixth largest pharmaceutical player
in the Indian market with a market share of ~3.7%. The company’s product
portfolio includes both, prescription medicines and vaccines. GSK sells prescription
medicines across therapeutic areas such as anti-infectives, dermatology,
gynecology, diabetes, oncology, cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases.
A large portion of the company’s revenue comes from the acute therapeutic
portfolio. However, the company is now scouting for opportunities in high-growth
therapeutic areas such as CVS, CNS, diabetes and oncology. Further, with a strong
parentage, the company plans to increase its product portfolio through patented
launches and vaccines. To fructify the same, the company plans to enhance its
manufacturing assets with its parent company investing `864cr in it; the capacity
expansion is expected to fructify in 2017.
May 23, 2017
8
Glaxo Pharma | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Profit & loss statement
Y/E March (` cr)
CY2013
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E FY2018E FY2019E
Gross sales
2,589
3,328
2,800
2,999
3,357
3,760
Less: Excise duty
51
56
59
72
67
75
Net sales
2,538
3,272
2,741
2,927
3,290
3,685
Other operating income
24
32
27
28
28
28
Total operating income
2,563
3,305
2,768
2,954
3,318
3,713
% chg
(3.3)
28.9
(16.2)
6.7
12.3
11.9
Total expenditure
2,034
2,690
2,289
2,581
2,757
3,016
Net raw materials
1,164
1,510
1,233
1,398
1,481
1,658
Other Mfg costs
89
115
99
107
111
115
Personnel
362
493
443
483
543
590
Other
420
572
514
593
623
654
EBITDA
504
582
452
346
533
669
% chg
(33.6)
15.5
(22.4)
(23.5)
54.3
25.4
(% of Net Sales)
19.9
17.8
16.5
11.8
16.2
18.1
Depreciation& amortization
20
25
25
26
52
60
EBIT
484
557
427
319
481
608
% chg
(34.7)
15.0
(23.3)
(25.2)
50.7
26.5
(% of Net Sales)
19.1
17.0
15.6
10.9
14.6
16.5
Interest & other charges
-
-
-
-
-
1
Other income
177
200
125
119
119
119
(% of PBT)
Share in profit of Associates
-
-
-
-
-
-
Recurring PBT
685
789
579
465
627
754
% chg
(27.5)
15.1
(26.5)
(19.7)
34.8
20.1
Extraordinary expense/(Inc.)
(26)
33
(3)
(46)
-
-
PBT (reported)
711
756
582
511
627
754
Tax
230
279
203
174
207
249
(% of PBT)
32.3
36.9
34.8
31.3
33.0
33.0
PAT (reported)
482
477
377
337
420
505
Add: Share of earnings
of asso.
-
-
-
-
-
-
Less: Minority interest (MI)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Prior period items
-
-
-
-
-
-
Exceptional items
PAT after MI (reported)
482
477
377
337
420
505
ADJ. PAT
464
509
374
291
420
505
% chg
(29.4)
9.8
(26.5)
(22.2)
44.4
20.1
(% of Net Sales)
18.3
15.6
13.7
9.9
12.8
13.7
Basic EPS (`)
55
60
44
34
50
60
Fully diluted EPS (`)
55
60
44
34
50
60
% chg
(29.4)
9.8
(26.5)
(22.2)
44.4
20.1
May 23, 2017
9
Glaxo Pharma | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr)
CY2013
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
FY2019E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital
85
85
85
85
85
85
Preference Capital
-
-
-
-
-
-
Reserves& surplus
1,905
1,744
2,099
1,922
1,847
1,797
Shareholders funds
1,990
1,829
2,183
2,007
1,932
1,881
Minority Interest
Total loans
4
3
1
2
2
3
Other long-term liabilities
5
5
-
-
-
-
Long-term provisions
242
273
291
276
276
276
Deferred tax liability
(92)
(83)
(101)
(92)
(92)
(92)
Total liabilities
2,148
2,026
2,374
2,193
2,118
2,069
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block
323
467
725
1,105
1,305
1,505
Less: Acc. Depreciation
247
272
297
323
375
436
Net block
76
195
428
782
930
1,070
Capital work-in-progress
44
44
44
44
44
44
Goodwill
42
-
-
32
32
32
Other non-current assets
14
-
-
-
-
-
Long-term loans and adv.
238
307
302
374
428
479
Investments
10
0
5
6
6
6
Current assets
2,614
2,587
2,174
1,674
1,489
1,345
Cash
2,042
1,911
1,392
932
655
240
Loans & advances
238
122
123
132
148
166
Other
335
554
658
610
686
940
Current liabilities
889
1,107
579
720
811
908
Net current assets
1,725
1,480
1,595
954
678
438
Mis. Exp. not written off
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total Assets
2,148
2,026
2,374
2,193
2,118
2,068
May 23, 2017
10
Glaxo Pharma | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Cash flow statement
Y/E March (` cr)
CY2013 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017E FY2018E FY2019E
Profit before tax and exceptional
711
756
582
557
627
754
Depreciation
20
25
25
26
52
60
(Inc)/Dec in working capital
15
114
(633)
181
(2)
(174)
Direct taxes paid
230
279
203
174
207
249
Cash Flow from Operations
517
616
(229)
590
471
391
(Inc.)/Dec.in fixed assets
(49)
(144)
(258)
(381)
(200)
(200)
(Inc.)/Dec. in investments
(45)
(10)
5
1
-
-
Cash Flow from Investing
(93)
(154)
(253)
(380)
(200)
(200)
Issue of equity
-
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend paid (Incl. Tax)
(495)
(624)
(495)
(297)
(495)
(555)
Others
47
32
459
-
-
-
Cash Flow from Financing
(448)
(593)
(37)
(297)
(495)
(555)
Inc./(Dec.) in cash
(25)
(131)
(519)
(460)
(277)
(415)
Opening cash balances
2,067
2,042
1,911
1,392
932
655
Closing cash balances
2,042
1,911
1,392
932
655
240
May 23, 2017
11
Glaxo Pharma | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Key ratio
Y/E March
CY2013
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
FY2019E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
44.3
40.4
55.0
70.7
48.9
40.7
P/CEPS
41.0
41.0
51.2
50.3
43.5
36.4
P/BV
10.3
11.2
9.4
10.2
10.6
10.9
Dividend yield (%)
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.2
2.1
2.3
EV/Sales
7.3
5.7
7.0
6.7
6.1
5.5
EV/EBITDA
36.8
32.1
42.5
56.8
37.3
30.4
EV / Total Assets
8.6
9.2
8.1
9.0
9.4
9.8
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
54.8
60.1
44.2
34.4
49.6
59.6
EPS (fully diluted)
54.8
60.1
44.2
34.4
49.6
59.6
Cash EPS
59.2
59.3
47.4
48.3
55.8
66.7
DPS
50.0
50.0
50.0
30.0
50.8
56.8
Book Value
234.9
215.9
257.8
236.9
228.0
222.1
Returns (%)
RoCE (Pre-tax)
22.4
26.7
19.4
14.0
22.3
29.1
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
22.4
26.7
19.4
14.0
22.3
29.1
RoE
23.2
26.7
18.7
13.9
21.3
26.5
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
8.6
8.4
4.6
3.2
2.8
2.6
Inventory / Sales (days)
48
40
59
52
38
31
Receivables (days)
15
11
15
14
10
8
Payables (days)
54
55
77
43
48
49
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)
79
69
96
94
87
95
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
(1.0)
(1.0)
(0.6)
(0.5)
(0.3)
(0.1)
Net debt to EBITDA
(4.0)
(3.3)
(3.1)
(2.7)
(1.2)
(0.4)
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
-
-
-
-
-
-
May 23, 2017
12
Glaxo Pharma | 4QFY2017 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Glaxo Pharma
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
May 23, 2017
13