1QFY2018 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
August 3, 2017
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals
NEUTRAL
CMP
`2,377
Performance Highlights
Target Price
-
Y/E Mar (` cr)
1QFY2018
4QFY2017
% chg (QoQ)
1QFY2017
% chg (YoY)
Investment Period
12 months
Net Sales
587
763
(23.1)
685
(14.3)
Other income
Stock Info
34
35
(3.4)
46
(26.1)
Sector
Pharmaceutical
Gross profit
316
402
(21.5)
371
(14.8)
Market Cap (` cr)
20,136
Operating profit
-1
116
(100.5)
70
(100.9)
Net Debt (` cr)
(936)
Adj. PAT
18
87
(79.5)
71
(75.0)
Beta
0.2
Source: Company, Angel Research
52 Week High / Low
3,343/2,309
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals (GSK) posted lower than expected results on
Avg. Daily Volume
2,050
sales and OPM fronts for 1QFY2018. The revenues came in at `587cr v/s.
Face Value (`)
10
`700cr expected, registering a yoy de-growth of 14.3%, mainly on the back of
BSE Sensex
32,575
GST implementation. On the OPM front, the EBDITA margins came in at (0.1)%
Nifty
10,115
(v/s. 12.6% expected) as compared to 10.2% in 1QFY2017, mainly driven by
Reuters Code
GLAX.BO
lower sales during the quarter. The Adj. PAT came in at `18cr v/s. `71cr in
Bloomberg Code
[email protected]
1QFY2017, a yoy dip of 75.0%. We maintain our Neutral.
Results lower than expectations: GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals (GSK) posted
Shareholding Pattern (%)
lower than expected results on sales and OPM fronts for 1QFY2018. The
Promoters
75.0
revenues came in at `587cr v/s. `700cr expected, registering a yoy de-growth of
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
10.9
14.3%, mainly on the back of GST implementation. Adjusted for the GST impact,
FII / NRIs / OCBs
2.1
revenue grew 6% yoy in 1QFY2018. On the OPM front, the EBDITA margins
Indian Public / Others
12.0
came in at (0.1)%% (v/s. 12.6% expected) as compared to 10.2% in 1QFY2017.
This was mainly driven by lower sales during the quarter. The Adj. PAT for the
quarter came in at `18cr v/s. `71cr in 1QFY2017, a yoy dip of 75.0%.
Abs. (%)
3m 1yr
3yr
Outlook and valuation: On the operational front, we expect the company’s net sales
Sensex
8.9
16.3
27.8
to post a CAGR of 11.7% to `3,651cr, while the EPS is expected to post a CAGR of
Glaxo
(12.7)
(26.5)
(4.6)
30.6% over FY2017-19E. We remain Neutral on the stock.
3-year price chart
Key financials (Consolidated)
4,000
Y/E Mar (` cr)
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
3,500
Net sales
2,741
2,927
3,260
3,651
3,000
% chg
(16.2)
6.8
11.4
12.0
Net profit
2,500
374
291
391
496
% chg
2,000
(26.5)
(22.2)
34.3
27.0
EPS (`)
1,500
44.2
34.4
46.1
58.6
EBITDA (%)
16.5
11.8
15.0
18.0
P/E (x)
53.8
69.2
51.5
40.6
Source: Company, Angel Research
RoE (%)
18.7
13.9
20.0
26.5
RoCE (%)
19.4
14.0
20.4
28.9
P/BV (x)
9.2
10.0
10.6
10.9
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
EV/Sales (x)
6.8
6.6
6.0
5.5
+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6806
EV/EBITDA (x)
[email protected]
41.5
55.6
39.9
30.4
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of August 1, 2017
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Glaxo Pharma | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 1QFY2018 - Standalone performance
Y/E March (` cr)
1QFY2018
4QFY2017
% chg (QoQ)
1QFY2017
% chg (YoY)
FY2017
FY2016
% chg
Net Sales
587
763
(23.1)
685
(14.3)
2,921
2,753
6.1
Other income
34
35
(3.4)
46
(26.1)
145
197
(26.3)
Total Income
621
799
(22.3)
731
(15.1)
3,066
2,950
3.9
Gross profit
316
402
(21.5)
371
(14.8)
1,527
1,525
0.1
Gross margin
53.8
52.7
54.1
52.3
55.4
Operating profit
-1
116
(100.5)
70
(100.9)
346
404
(14.2)
Operating margin (%)
(0.1)
15.2
10.2
11.9
14.7
Interest
0
0
-
0
-
0
0
-
Depreciation & Amortization
8
8
(3.5)
5
40.0
26
25
5.6
PBT & Exceptional Items
26
144
(82.0)
111
(76.7)
465
576
(19.2)
Less : Exceptional Items
13
26
-
1
-
46
2
Profit before tax
38
170
(77.3)
112
(65.6)
511
577
(11.5)
Provision for taxation
12
57
(79.8)
38
(69.3)
174
201
(13.5)
Reported PAT
26
113
(76.5)
72
(63.4)
337
375
(10.1)
Adj. Net profit
18
87
(79.5)
71
(75.0)
291
373
(22.0)
EPS (`)
2.1
10.2
8.4
34.4
44.0
Source: Company, Angel Research,
Exhibit 2: 1QFY2018 - Actual v/s. Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimates
Variation (%)
Net sales
587
700
(16.2)
Other income
34
47
(28.2)
Operating profit
(1)
88
(100.7)
Tax
12
25
(54.2)
Adj. net profit
18
104
(82.9)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue de-grew by 14.3% yoy
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals (GSK) posted lower than expected results on
sales and OPM fronts for 1QFY2018. The revenues came in at `587cr v/s. `700cr
expected, registering a yoy de-growth of 14.3%, mainly on the back of GST
implementation. Adjusted for the GST impact, revenue grew 6% yoy in 1QFY2018.
August 3, 2017
2
Glaxo Pharma | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Sales trend
800
783
40.0
763
35.0
30.0
685
689
700
25.0
20.0
15.0
587
600
10.0
5.0
0.0
500
(5.0)
(10.0)
(15.0)
400
(20.0)
1QFY2017 2QFY2017 3QFY2017 4QFY2017 1QFY2018
Sales
Growth (YoY)
Source: Company, Angel Research
OPM comes lower on the back of lower sales
On the OPM front, the EBDITA margins came in at (0.1)% (v/s. 12.6% expected) as
compared to 10.2% in 1QFY2017. This was mainly driven by lower sales during
the quarter. The Gross margins were almost flat at 53.0% in 1QFY2017 v/s.
54.1% in 1QFY2018. Employee expenses and other expenses grew by 11.9% and
0.9% respectively.
Exhibit 4: OPM trend
25.0
20.0
15.2
15.2
15.2
15.0
10.2
10.0
5.0
0.0
(0.1)
(5.0)
(10.0)
1QFY2017 2QFY2017 3QFY2017 4QFY2017 1QFY2018
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net profit much lower than estimated
The Adj. PAT during the quarter came in at `18cr v/s. `71cr in 1QFY2017, a yoy
dip of 75.0%. The reported profit came in at `26cr v/s. `72cr, a yoy de-growth of
63.4%. Also, during the quarter the company posted other income of `34cr v/s.
`46cr in 1QFY2017.
August 3, 2017
3
Glaxo Pharma | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 5: Adjusted net profit trend
150
99
100
87
71
50
41
18
0
1QFY2017 2QFY2017 3QFY2017 4QFY2017 1QFY2018
Source: Company, Angel Research
August 3, 2017
4
Glaxo Pharma | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Recommendation rationale
Renewed focus on the Indian market: GSK is among the top ten players in the
Indian pharmaceutical market, having a market share of ~3.7%. Unlike other
MNCs, the company has been amongst the few which have taken initiatives to
grow their businesses in the Indian market with consistent launch of new products.
Over the last six years, the company has strategically decided to expand its
presence in the Specialty segment. The Specialty segment’s contribution to sales
has reached 23% (as of 2013). Another segment which is strong for the company
is the area of vaccines, where GSK Vaccines has become the leading company in
the private market for vaccines in India. The recently introduced vaccine for
pneumococcal conjugate disease, Synflorix, has become the biggest brand in the
vaccine portfolio of the company in the second year of its launch. The efforts of the
company in raising awareness about vaccines and preventable diseases continue
with increasing fervor. Also, in FY2015, GlaxoSmithKline Plc (Glaxo), London, UK,
entered into three inter-conditional agreements with Novartis AG (Novartis), Basel,
Switzerland. In one such agreement, Glaxo agreed to acquire Novartis’ vaccines
business (excluding influenza vaccine) and its manufacturing capabilities and
facilities, and in the second agreement, Glaxo agreed to sell the rights of its
Marketed Oncology Portfolio, related R&D activities and AKT Inhibitors currently in
development to Novartis. Globally, these transactions with Novartis were
completed on March 2, 2015.
On the other hand, its other key segments like mass markets and mass specialty,
which contribute 60% of its sales, de-grew by 12% in CY2013. This was as a result
of a number of products of the company having come under the DPCO 2013
ruling, resulting in reduction in prices of its drugs, which impacted its sales in
CY2013. Along with this, the supply constraints, mainly from local supplies during
FY2015, have been impacting its performance. FY2017 was another year, where
the company’s, sales got impacted on the back of the government’s pricing cuts.
Overall, for FY2017-19E, we expect the domestic formulation business of the
company to grow at a CAGR of 11.7%.
Significant capex plans ahead indicate revival in growth: Global pharmaceutical
major Glaxo announced
`864cr investment in India to set up a medicine
manufacturing unit. The new facility will substantially increase the company’s
manufacturing base. The drug maker is proactively building capacity in the country
as it delivers its portfolio of products in areas such as gastroenterology and anti-
inflammatory medicines. When complete, the factory will make pharmaceutical
products for the Indian market at a rate of up to 8bn tablets and 1bn capsules a
year. The facility, will include a warehouse, site infrastructure, and utilities to
support the manufacturing and packing of medicines. It showcases GSK's latest
commitment to its manufacturing network in India where the company has invested
`1,017cr over the last decade. The development is positive and comes after a long
lull in terms of investments.
August 3, 2017
5
Glaxo Pharma | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Outlook and valuation
GSK has a strong balance sheet with cash of ~`900cr, which could be used for
future acquisitions or higher dividend payouts. The company’s parent company
Glaxo increased stake in it through a voluntary open offer, after which Glaxo holds
75% stake in the Indian subsidiary. The buy-back of shares is a strong indicator
from the Management towards the performance of its listed Indian entity,
especially as it comes after the recent `864cr investment plan announced by the
company to further its growth prospects in the Indian pharmaceuticals market. The
said investments are expected to fructify by 2017.
On the operational front, we expect the company’s net sales to post a CAGR of
11.7% to `3,681cr and EPS to register a CAGR of 30.7% to `58.7 over FY2017-
19E. At the current level, the stock is trading at 51.5x and 40.5x its FY2018E and
FY2019E earnings respectively. We remain Neutral on the stock.
Exhibit 6: Key assumptions
FY2018E
FY2019E
Sales growth (%)
11.4
12.0
Growth in employee expenses (%)
11.0
9.0
Operating margin (%)
15.0
18.1
Capex (` cr)
200
200
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: One-year forward PE
5,500
4,500
3,500
2,500
1,500
500
Price
18x
30x
42x
54x
Source: Company, Angel Research
August 3, 2017
6
Glaxo Pharma | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 8: Recommendation summary
Company
Reco
CMP
Tgt. price
Upside
FY2019E
FY17-19E
FY2019E
(`)
(`)
% PE (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) CAGR in EPS (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Alembic Pharma
Accumulate
525
600
14.4
19.3
2.2
11.3
12.8
24.3
20.6
Aurobindo Pharma
Accumulate
735
877
12.0
14.3
2.2
10.0
14.2
25.3
22.7
Cadila Healthcare
Sell
542
450
(16.9)
25.5
4.1
20.2
21.0
17.3
22.9
Cipla
Sell
562
465
(18.0)
23.2
2.4
15.0
39.2
11.0
13.2
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
2,427
-
-
21.9
2.4
13.4
23.6
11.2
13.0
Dishman Pharma
Under Review
301
-
-
18.9
1.3
10.1
(6.8)
2.9
2.5
GSK Pharma
Neutral
2,377
-
-
40.6
5.5
30.4
30.6
28.9
26.5
Indoco Remedies
Sell
200
153
(23.5)
15.7
1.5
10.3
23.0
11.2
15.0
Ipca labs
Buy
483
613
28.5
7.9
0.6
4.1
27.9
12.8
11.2
Lupin
Buy
1,018
1,526
49.9
14.7
2.0
8.5
10.4
20.6
17.8
Sanofi India*
Neutral
4,286
-
-
27.9
2.9
17.2
9.2
23.9
25.8
Sun Pharma
Buy
535
712
33.2
16.5
3.1
12.2
1.2
15.1
18.8
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * December year ending;
August 3, 2017
7
Glaxo Pharma | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Company Background
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals (GSK) is the sixth largest pharmaceutical player
in the Indian market with a market share of ~3.7%. The company’s product
portfolio includes both, prescription medicines and vaccines. GSK sells prescription
medicines across therapeutic areas such as anti-infectives, dermatology,
gynecology, diabetes, oncology, cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases.
A large portion of the company’s revenue comes from the acute therapeutic
portfolio. However, the company is now scouting for opportunities in high-growth
therapeutic areas such as CVS, CNS, diabetes and oncology. Further, with a strong
parentage, the company plans to increase its product portfolio through patented
launches and vaccines. To fructify the same, the company plans to enhance its
manufacturing assets with its parent company investing `864cr in it; the capacity
expansion is expected to fructify in 2017.
August 3, 2017
8
Glaxo Pharma | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Profit & loss statement
Y/E March (` cr)
CY2013
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017 FY2018E FY2019E
Gross sales
2,589
3,328
2,800
2,999
3,357
3,760
Less: Excise duty
51
56
59
72
67
75
Net sales
2,538
3,272
2,741
2,927
3,290
3,685
Other operating income
24
32
27
28
28
28
Total operating income
2,563
3,305
2,768
2,954
3,318
3,713
% chg
(3.3)
28.9
(16.2)
6.7
12.3
11.9
Total expenditure
2,034
2,690
2,289
2,581
2,757
3,016
Net raw materials
1,164
1,510
1,233
1,398
1,481
1,658
Other Mfg costs
89
115
99
107
111
115
Personnel
362
493
443
483
543
590
Other
420
572
514
593
623
654
EBITDA
504
582
452
346
533
669
% chg
(33.6)
15.5
(22.4)
(23.5)
54.3
25.4
(% of Net Sales)
19.9
17.8
16.5
11.8
16.2
18.1
Depreciation& amortization
20
25
25
26
52
60
EBIT
484
557
427
319
481
608
% chg
(34.7)
15.0
(23.3)
(25.2)
50.7
26.5
(% of Net Sales)
19.1
17.0
15.6
10.9
14.6
16.5
Interest & other charges
-
-
-
-
-
1
Other income
177
200
125
119
119
119
(% of PBT)
Share in profit of Associates
-
-
-
-
-
-
Recurring PBT
685
789
579
465
627
754
% chg
(27.5)
15.1
(26.5)
(19.7)
34.8
20.1
Extraordinary expense/(Inc.)
(26)
33
(3)
(46)
-
-
PBT (reported)
711
756
582
511
627
754
Tax
230
279
203
174
207
249
(% of PBT)
32.3
36.9
34.8
31.3
33.0
33.0
PAT (reported)
482
477
377
337
420
505
Add: Share of earnings
of asso.
-
-
-
-
-
-
Less: Minority interest (MI)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Prior period items
-
-
-
-
-
-
Exceptional items
PAT after MI (reported)
482
477
377
337
420
505
ADJ. PAT
464
509
374
291
420
505
% chg
(29.4)
9.8
(26.5)
(22.2)
44.4
20.1
(% of Net Sales)
18.3
15.6
13.7
9.9
12.8
13.7
Basic EPS (`)
55
60
44
34
50
60
Fully diluted EPS (`)
55
60
44
34
50
60
% chg
(29.4)
9.8
(26.5)
(22.2)
44.4
20.1
August 3, 2017
9
Glaxo Pharma | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr)
CY2013
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital
85
85
85
85
85
85
Preference Capital
-
-
-
-
-
-
Reserves& surplus
1,905
1,744
2,099
1,922
1,847
1,797
Shareholders funds
1,990
1,829
2,183
2,007
1,932
1,881
Minority Interest
Total loans
4
3
1
2
2
3
Other long-term liabilities
5
5
-
-
-
-
Long-term provisions
242
273
291
276
276
276
Deferred tax liability
(92)
(83)
(101)
(92)
(92)
(92)
Total liabilities
2,148
2,026
2,374
2,193
2,118
2,069
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block
323
467
725
1,105
1,305
1,505
Less: Acc. Depreciation
247
272
297
323
375
436
Net block
76
195
428
782
930
1,070
Capital work-in-progress
44
44
44
44
44
44
Goodwill
42
-
-
32
32
32
Other non-current assets
14
-
-
-
-
-
Long-term loans and adv.
238
307
302
374
428
479
Investments
10
0
5
6
6
6
Current assets
2,614
2,587
2,174
1,674
1,489
1,345
Cash
2,042
1,911
1,392
932
655
240
Loans & advances
238
122
123
132
148
166
Other
335
554
658
610
686
940
Current liabilities
889
1,107
579
720
811
908
Net current assets
1,725
1,480
1,595
954
678
438
Mis. Exp. not written off
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total Assets
2,148
2,026
2,374
2,193
2,118
2,069
August 3, 2017
10
Glaxo Pharma | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Cash flow statement
Y/E March (` cr)
CY2013
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E FY2019E
Profit before tax and exceptional
711
756
582
557
627
754
Depreciation
20
25
25
26
52
60
(Inc)/Dec in working capital
15
114
(633)
181
(2)
(174)
Direct taxes paid
230
279
203
174
207
249
Cash Flow from Operations
517
616
(229)
590
471
391
(Inc.)/Dec.in fixed assets
(49)
(144)
(258)
(381)
(200)
(200)
(Inc.)/Dec. in investments
(45)
(10)
5
1
-
-
Cash Flow from Investing
(93)
(154)
(253)
(380)
(200)
(200)
Issue of equity
-
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend paid (Incl. Tax)
(495)
(624)
(495)
(297)
(495)
(555)
Others
47
32
459
-
-
-
Cash Flow from Financing
(448)
(593)
(37)
(297)
(495)
(555)
Inc./(Dec.) in cash
(25)
(131)
(519)
(460)
(277)
(415)
Opening cash balances
2,067
2,042
1,911
1,392
932
655
Closing cash balances
2,042
1,911
1,392
932
655
240
August 3, 2017
11
Glaxo Pharma | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Key ratio
Y/E March
CY2013
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
44.4
40.4
55.0
70.8
49.0
40.8
P/CEPS
41.1
41.0
51.3
50.4
43.6
36.4
P/BV
10.3
11.3
9.4
10.3
10.7
10.9
Dividend yield (%)
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.2
2.1
2.3
EV/Sales
7.3
5.7
7.0
6.7
6.1
5.5
EV/EBITDA
36.8
32.1
42.5
56.9
37.4
30.4
EV / Total Assets
8.6
9.2
8.1
9.0
9.4
9.8
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
54.8
60.1
44.2
34.4
49.6
59.6
EPS (fully diluted)
54.8
60.1
44.2
34.4
49.6
59.6
Cash EPS
59.2
59.3
47.4
48.3
55.8
66.7
DPS
50.0
50.0
50.0
30.0
50.8
56.8
Book Value
234.9
215.9
257.8
236.9
228.0
222.1
Returns (%)
RoCE (Pre-tax)
22.4
26.7
19.4
14.0
22.3
29.1
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
22.4
26.7
19.4
14.0
22.3
29.1
RoE
23.2
26.7
18.7
13.9
21.3
26.5
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
8.6
8.4
4.6
3.2
2.8
2.6
Inventory / Sales (days)
48
40
59
52
38
31
Receivables (days)
15
11
15
14
10
8
Payables (days)
54
55
77
43
48
49
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)
79
69
96
94
87
95
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
(1.0)
(1.0)
(0.6)
(0.5)
(0.3)
(0.1)
Net debt to EBITDA
(4.0)
(3.3)
(3.1)
(2.7)
(1.2)
(0.4)
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
-
-
-
-
-
-
August 3, 2017
12
Glaxo Pharma | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Glaxo Pharma
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
August 3, 2017
13