1QFY2018 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
August 18, 2017
Cadila Healthcare
REDUCE
CMP
`484
Performance Highlights
Target Price
`426
1QFY2018
4QFY2017
% chg (qoq)
1QFY2017
% chg (yoy)
Investment Period
Y/E March (` cr)
Net sales
2,136
2418
(11.7)
2216
(3.6)
Stock Info
Other income
83
134
(38.3)
86
(4.0)
Sector
Pharmaceutical
Gross profit
1306
1489
(12.3)
1456
(10.3)
Market Cap (` cr)
49,508
Operating profit
216
403
(46.5)
453
(52.4)
Net debt (` cr)
3,616
Adj. Net profit
138
386
(64.2)
398
(65.3)
Beta
1.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
52 Week High / Low
558 / 330
Cadila Healthcare posted poor set of numbers for 1QFY2018. Sales came in at `2,136cr
Avg. Daily Volume
1,09,548
(`2,216cr expected) v/s. `2,500cr in 1QFY2017, a yoy de-growth of 3.6%, mainly driven
Face Value (`)
1
by the dip in sales of Indian formulations. Indian formulation sales registered (`637cr) a
BSE Sensex
31,771
yoy dip of 18.9%. Its key market USA registered (`965cr), 13.8% yoy growth. On operating
Nifty
9,897
front, the EBITDA margins came in at 10.1% (18.4% expected) v/s. 20.4% in 1QFY2017,
mainly on the back of lower than expected sales during the quarter and a 20.0% and
Reuters Code
CADI.BO
25.3% rise in the employee and R&D expenses respectively. Thus, the PAT came in at `
Bloomberg Code
[email protected]
138cr V/s `492cr expected. We maintain our reduce rating with a price target of `426.
Results lower than expected: Sales came in at `2,136cr (`2,216cr expected) v/s. `2,500cr
Shareholding Pattern (%)
in 1QFY2017, a yoy de-growth of 3.6%, mainly driven by the dip in sales of Indian
Promoters
74.8
formulation. Indian formulation sales registered (`637cr) a yoy dip of 18.9%. Its key market
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
9.8
USA registered (`965cr) 13.8% yoy growth. On operating front, the EBITDA margins came
in at 10.1% (18.4% expected) v/s. 20.4% in 1QFY2017, mainly on the back of lower than
FII / NRIs / OCBs
10.2
expected sales during the quarter and a 20.0% and 25.3% rise in the employee and R&D
Indian Public / Others
5.2
expenses respectively. Gross margins came in at 61.2% v/s. 65.1% in 1QFY2017; while
R&D expenses were 9.5% of sales in 1QFY2018 v/s. 7.3% of sales in 1QFY2017. Thus, the
Abs.(%)
3m 1yr 3yr
PAT came in at ` 138cr (` 492cr expected) v/s. `398cr in 1QFY2017.
Sensex
8.0
13.2
20.4
Outlook and valuation: We expect Cadila’s net sales to post 19.8% CAGR to `13,228cr
Cadila
7.0
32.9
108.9
and EPS to report 21.0% CAGR to `21.3 over FY2017-19E. We maintain our reduce
rating.
3-Year Daily Price Chart
Key financials (Consolidated)
600
Y E March (` cr)
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
500
Net sales
9,072
9,220
11,584
13,228
400
% chg
6.8
1.6
25.6
14.2
300
Net profit
1,936
1,488
1,915
2,179
200
% chg
67.0
(23.2)
28.7
13.8
100
EPS
18.9
14.5
18.7
21.3
0
EBITDA margin (%)
21.7
18.4
20.3
20.4
P/E (x)
25.6
33.3
25.9
22.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
RoE (%)
38.9
23.5
24.6
22.9
RoCE (%)
22.8
13.4
16.2
17.3
P/BV (x)
8.7
7.1
5.8
4.7
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
EV/Sales (x)
5.5
5.6
4.3
3.7
+91 22 39357600 Ext: 6806
EV/EBITDA (x)
25.5
30.7
21.1
18.0
[email protected]
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of August 16, 2017
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Cadila Healthcare | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 1QFY2018 performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
1QFY2018
4QFY2017
% chg (qoq)
1QFY2017
% chg (yoy)
FY2017
FY2016
% chg
Net Sales
2,136
2,418
(11.7)
2,216
(3.6)
9,220
9,072
1.6
Other Income
83
134
(38.3)
86
(4.0)
338
471
(28.2)
Total Income
2,218
2,551
(13.1)
2,302
(3.7)
9,558
9,542
0.2
Gross profit
1306
1489
(12.3)
1456
(10.3)
5775
5976
(3.4)
Gross margin (%)
61.2
61.6
65.7
62.6
65.9
Operating profit
216
403
(46.5)
453
(52.4)
1694
1973
(14.1)
Operating Margin (%)
10.1
16.7
20.4
18.4
21.7
Financial Cost
22
10
121.2
14
56.4
45
53
(14.8)
Depreciation
122
115
6.6
84
44.7
375
292
28.4
PBT
154
412
(62.6)
441
(65.0)
1612
2099
(23.2)
Tax
30
2
1,459.5
54
(45.1)
129
177
(27.3)
Adj. PAT before
Extra-ordinary item
125
410
(69.6)
387
(67.8)
1483
1921
(22.8)
Exceptional loss/(gain)
0
(0)
0
0
(2)
Minority
(13)
25
(153.4)
(12)
(5)
(13)
Reported PAT
138
386
(64.2)
398
(65.3)
1488
1936
(23.1)
Adj. PAT
138
386
(64.2)
398
(65.3)
1488
1936
(23.1)
EPS (`)
1.3
3.8
3.9
14.5
18.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 1QFY2018 - Actual vs. Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimates
Variance
Net Sales
2,136
2,500
(14.6)
Operating profit
216
460
(53.1)
Tax
30
2
1,459.5
Net profit
138
492
(71.9)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue lower than our expectation
Sales came in at `2,136cr (`2,500cr expected) v/s. `2,216cr in 1QFY2017, a yoy
de-growth of 3.6%, mainly driven by the dip in sales of Indian formulation. Indian
formulation sales registered (`637cr) a yoy dip of 18.9%. The dip in the domestic
business was primarily due to destocking of inventories with the implementation of
GST.
The sales recorded in key markets were US (`965cr, up 13.8% yoy), Indian
Formulation (`634cr, a yoy de-growth of 18.9%), Emerging market Formulation
(`122cr, down 8.1% yoy) and Latin America formulation (`51cr, a yoy growth of
3.4%).
The Alliances (`41.1cr) grew by 5.3% yoy. Europe Formulation (`61cr, a yoy dip of
23.1%), Consumer Wellness
(`115cr, a yoy de-growth of
1.3%), Animal
Healthcare (`106cr, a yoy de-growth of 3.6%), API (`68cr, a yoy de-growth of
29.4%) and Alliances (`51cr, a yoy growth of 5.4%).
Company filed for 2 ANDAs and received 18 approvals in 1QFY2018, taking
cumulative approvals to 128. Post successful resolution of the Moraiya plant
USFDA issue, the company expects ~80 ANDA approvals until FY2019 for the
company. Around ~50% of these are expected to come from the Moraiya facility
and the rest from Baddi and SEZ facilities.
August 18, 2017
2
Cadila Healthcare | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Sales trend in the US and Europe
1,200
989
985
965
1,000
887
848
800
600
400
200
79
56
65
62
61
0
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
4QFY2017
1QFY2018
US
Europe
Source: Company, Angel Research
The growth in the domestic market was mainly led by Animal Health & Others
(`106cr), which de-grew by 3.6%; while formulations (`637cr) de-grew by 18.9%
yoy. API (`68.4cr), on the other hand, de-grew by 29.4% yoy.
Exhibit 4: Sales trend in Domestic Formulation and Consumer Wellness Divisions
900
840
821
786
797
800
700
637
600
500
400
300
200
116
112
111
120
115
100
0
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
4QFY2017
1QFY2018
Domestic Formulation
Consumer division
Source: Company, Angel Research
OPM lower than expectation
On operating front, the EBITDA margins came in at 10.1% (18.4% expected) v/s.
20.4% in 1QFY2017, mainly on back of lower than expected sales during the
quarter and a 20.0% and 25.3% rise in the employee and R&D expenses
respectively. Gross margins came in at 61.2% v/s. 65.1% in 1QFY2017; while
R&D expenses were 9.5% of sales in 1QFY2018 v/s 7.3% of sales in 1QFY2017.
August 18, 2017
3
Cadila Healthcare | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 5: OPM trend
21.4
20.0
20.4
16.7
15.0
15.2
10.0
10.1
5.0
0.0
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
4QFY2017
1QFY2018
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net profit plunges 65.3% yoy: Consequently, the Adj. PAT came in at `138cr
(`492cr expected) v/s. `398cr in 1QFY2017, yoy de-growth of 65.3%. A yoy rise in
the deprecation of around 44.7% and higher financial expenses by 56.4% yoy,
aided the overall dip in the net profit.
Exhibit 6: Adjusted Net profit trend
450
398
386
400
338
350
324
300
250
200
138
150
100
50
0
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
4QFY2017
1QFY2018
Source: Company, Angel Research
Concall takeaways
In 1QFY2018, the pricing pressure in US was in low-double-digits.
Management expects R&D to remain at 7-8% of sales with increased filings in
complex products in the US.
Capex of `800-1,000cr expected in FY2018.
August 18, 2017
4
Cadila Healthcare | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Recommendation rationale
Strong domestic portfolio: Cadila is the fifth largest player in the domestic market
with sales of about `3,244cr in FY2017; the domestic market contributes ~39% to
its top-line. The company enjoys a leadership position in the CVS, GI, women
healthcare and respiratory segments, and has a sales force of 4,500 executives.
Further, the company has a strong consumer division through its stake in Zydus
Wellness, which has premium brands such as Sugarfree, Everyuth and Nutralite
under its umbrella. This segment, which contributes ~4.9% of sales, registered a
growth of 13.6% during FY2017.
Going forward, the company expects the segment to grow at an above industry
rate on the back of new product launches and field force expansion. In FY2017,
sales were lower however, FY2018 should witness a rebound. During FY2017-
19E, we expect the domestic segment to grow at a CAGR of 14.3%.
Exports on a strong footing: Cadila has a two-fold focus on exports, wherein it is
targeting developed as well as emerging markets, which contributed around 61%
to its FY2017 top-line. The company has established a formidable presence in the
developed markets of US, Europe (France and Spain) and Japan. In the US, the
company achieved critical scale of `3,709cr on the sales front in FY2017. The
growth in exports to the US along with other regions like Europe would be driven
by new product launches, going forward. Overall, exports are expected to post a
CAGR of 23.7% over FY2017-19E.
Outlook and valuation
We expect Cadila’s net sales to post 19.8% CAGR to `13,228cr and EPS to report
21.0% CAGR to `21.3 over FY2017-19E. We maintain our reduce rating on the stock.
Exhibit 7: Key Assumptions
Key assumptions
FY2018E
FY2019E
Domestic growth (%)
15.5
13.0
Exports growth (%)
33.0
15.0
Growth in employee expenses (%)
16.8
13.5
Operating margins (excl tech. know-how fees) (%)
20.3
20.4
Capex (` cr)
1,000
1,000
Source: Company, Angel Research
August 18, 2017
5
Cadila Healthcare | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 8: One-year forward PE band
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Price
7x
14x
21x
28x
Source: Company
Company background: Cadila Healthcare‘s operations range across API,
formulations, animal health products and cosmeceuticals. The group has global
operations spread across USA, Europe, Japan, Brazil, South Africa and 25 other
emerging markets. Having already achieved the US$1bn sales mark in 2011, the
company aims to be a research-driven pharmaceutical company by 2020.
Exhibit 9: Recommendation Summary
Company
Reco
CMP
Tgt. price
Upside
FY2019E
FY17-19E
FY2019E
(`)
(`)
% PE (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
CAGR in EPS (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Alembic Pharma
Buy
515
600
16.5
18.9
2.1
11.0
12.8
24.3
20.6
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
714
823
15.3
13.9
2.1
9.7
14.2
25.3
22.7
Cadila Healthcare
Reduce
484
426
(11.9)
22.7
3.7
18.0
21.0
17.3
22.9
Cipla
Sell
590
458
(22.4)
24.5
2.5
15.7
38.7
10.9
13.1
Dr Reddy's
Accumulate
1,999
2,219
11.0
18.0
2.0
11.2
23.6
11.2
13.0
Dishman Pharma
Under Review
293
-
-
18.9
1.3
10.1
(7.2)
2.9
2.5
GSK Pharma
Neutral
2,365
-
-
40.4
5.4
30.3
30.6
28.9
26.5
Indoco Remedies
Sell
193
153
(20.9)
15.2
1.5
10.1
23.0
11.3
15.6
Ipca labs
Buy
420
620
47.6
16.7
1.3
8.5
27.9
12.8
11.2
Lupin
Buy
962
1,467
52.5
14.4
2.0
8.4
8.2
20.5
17.5
Sanofi India*
Reduce
4,127
3,845
(6.8)
26.8
2.8
16.5
9.2
23.9
25.8
Sun Pharma
Buy
485
558
15.0
19.6
3.2
14.4
8.0
12.3
15.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year ending
August 18, 2017
6
Cadila Healthcare | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Profit & Loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Gross sales
7,208
8,658
9,262
9,416
11,803
13,477
Less: Excise duty
148
161
190
196
218
249
Net sales
7,060
8,497
9,072
9,220
11,584
13,228
Other operating income
164
154
355
210
210
210
Total operating income
7,224
8,651
9,427
9,430
11,794
13,437
% chg
13.6
19.8
9.0
0.0
25.1
13.9
Total expenditure
6,024
6,896
7,099
7,526
9,227
10,527
Net raw materials
2,714
3,197
3,096
3,445
4,170
4,630
Other mfg costs
443
534
570
579
728
831
Personnel
1,071
1,209
1,262
1,500
1,815
2,196
Other
1,796
2,107
2,172
2,002
2,514
2,870
EBITDA
1,036
1,601
1,973
1,694
2,357
2,700
% chg
12.3
54.6
23.2
(14.2)
39.2
14.6
(% of Net Sales)
14.7
18.8
21.7
18.4
20.3
20.4
Dep. & amortisation
201
287
292
375
415
485
EBIT
835
1,314
1,681
1,319
1,942
2,215
% chg
12.8
57.4
27.9
(21.5)
47.3
14.1
(% of Net Sales)
11.8
15.5
18.5
14.3
16.8
16.7
Interest & other charges
90
68
53
45
120
100
Other income
51
55
116
129
129
129
(% of PBT)
5
4
6
8
6
5
Recurring PBT
959
1,456
2,099
1,612
2,160
2,453
% chg
18.3
51.8
44.1
(23.2)
34.0
13.6
Extraordinary exp./(Inc.)
17
10
2
-
-
0
PBT (reported)
942
1,445
2,099
1,612
2,160
2,453
Tax
106.0
259.4
177.4
128.9
216.0
245.3
(% of PBT)
11.3
17.9
8.5
8.0
10.0
10.0
PAT (reported)
836
1,186
1,921
1,483
1,944
2,208
Less: Minority int. (MI)
32.6
35.5
30.0
29.1
29.1
29.1
PAT after MI (reported)
804
1,151
1,934
1,488
1,915
2,179
ADJ. PAT
819
1,159
1,936
1,488
1,915
2,179
% chg
25.0
41.5
67.0
(23.2)
28.7
13.8
(% of Net Sales)
11.4
13.5
21.3
16.1
16.5
16.5
Adj.Basic EPS (`)
8.0
11.3
18.9
14.5
18.7
21.3
Adj. Fully Diluted EPS (`)
8.0
11.3
18.9
14.5
18.7
21.3
% chg
25.0
41.5
67.0
(23.2)
28.7
13.8
August 18, 2017
7
Cadila Healthcare | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital
102
102
102
102
102
102
Reserves & Surplus
3,337
4,149
5,597
6,858
8,485
10,376
Shareholders funds
3,439
4,252
5,699
6,960
8,589
10,481
Minority interest
144
169
135
156
185
214
Total loans
2,265
2,334
2,107
4,945
3,000
2,500
Other Long Term Liabilities
55
43
61
45
46
47
Long Term Provisions
76
110
97
169
169
169
Deferred tax liability
96
59
(318)
(401)
122
123
Total liabilities
6,075
6,966
7,782
11,875
12,110
13,534
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block
3,756
4,353
4,786
5,436
6,436
7,436
Less: Acc. depreciation
1,540
1,827
2,120
2,495
2,910
3,396
Net block
2,214
2,526
2,666
3,942
3,526
4,040
Capital Work-in-Progress
892
892
892
892
892
892
Goodwill
908
733
1,141
2,465
2,465
2,465
Investments
87
154
416
435
435
435
Long Term Loans and Adv.
495
637
836
997
997
997
Current assets
3,391
4,105
4,081
5,973
7,351
8,764
Cash
549
670
639
1,544
1,870
2,553
Loans & advances
341
334
335
336
337
338
Other
2,501
3,102
3,108
4,094
5,144
5,873
Current liabilities
1,912
2,081
2,250
2,829
3,554
4,059
Net Current assets
1,480
2,024
1,831
3,144
3,796
4,706
Mis. Exp. not written off
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total assets
6,075
6,966
7,782
11,875
12,110
13,534
August 18, 2017
8
Cadila Healthcare | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Profit before tax
942
1,445
2,099
1,612
2,160
2,453
Depreciation
201
287
292
375
415
485
(Inc)/Dec in Working Cap.
168
(565)
(37)
(570)
(325)
(226)
Less: Other income
51
55
116
129
129
129
Direct taxes paid
106
259
177
129
216
245
Cash Flow from Operations
1,154
853
2,061
1,160
1,906
2,338
(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets
(296)
(597)
(433)
(650)
(1,000)
(1,000)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments
(65)
(68)
(262)
(19)
-
-
Other income
51
55
116
129
129
129
Cash Flow from Investing
(310)
(609)
(579)
(540)
(871)
(871)
Issue of Equity
-
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
(397)
91
(222)
2,894
(1,944)
(499)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(216)
(287)
(287)
(287)
(287)
(287)
Others
(264)
74
(1,004)
(2,322)
1,524
2
Cash Flow from Financing
(877)
(122)
(1,513)
285
(708)
(784)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
(33)
121
(31)
905
326
683
Opening Cash balances
582
549
670
639
1,544
1,870
Closing Cash balances
549
670
639
1,544
1,870
2,553
August 18, 2017
9
Cadila Healthcare | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
60.5
42.7
25.6
33.3
25.9
22.7
P/CEPS
48.5
34.2
22.2
26.5
21.2
18.6
P/BV
14.4
11.7
8.7
7.1
5.8
4.7
Dividend yield (%)
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
EV/Sales
7.2
6.0
5.5
5.6
4.3
3.7
EV/EBITDA
49.0
31.6
25.5
30.7
21.1
18.0
EV / Total Assets
8.4
7.3
6.5
4.4
4.1
3.6
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
8.0
11.3
18.9
14.5
18.7
21.3
EPS (fully diluted)
8.0
11.3
18.9
14.5
18.7
21.3
Cash EPS
10.0
14.2
21.8
18.2
22.8
26.1
DPS
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
Book Value
33.6
41.5
55.7
68.0
83.9
102.4
Dupont Analysis
EBIT margin
11.8
15.5
18.5
14.3
16.8
16.7
Tax retention ratio
88.7
82.1
91.5
92.0
90.0
90.0
Asset turnover (x)
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.3
ROIC (Post-tax)
13.8
18.6
23.8
14.2
17.3
19.1
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
3.2
2.4
2.2
1.2
2.7
3.3
Leverage (x)
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.1
Operating ROE
20.1
25.8
30.8
19.1
21.8
20.1
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax)
13.8
20.2
22.8
13.4
16.2
17.3
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
20.6
31.3
34.4
21.8
28.0
30.5
ROE
25.3
30.1
38.9
23.5
24.6
22.9
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gr. Block)
1.8
2.1
2.1
1.8
2.0
1.9
Inventory / Sales (days)
69
61
57
83
82
86
Receivables (days)
57
57
46
67
66
69
Payables (days)
55
46
49
58
59
59
WC (ex-cash) (days)
53
48
49
54
55
55
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.1
(0.0)
Net debt to EBITDA
1.7
1.0
0.7
2.0
0.5
(0.0)
Int. Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
9.3
19.4
31.8
29.3
16.2
22.1
August 18, 2017
10
Cadila Healthcare | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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/dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public
offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Cadila Healthcare
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
August 18, 2017
11