2QFY2018 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
November 20, 2017
Aurobindo Pharma
BUY
CMP
`708
Performance Highlights
Target Price
`823
Y/E march (` cr)
2QFY18 1QFY18
% chg (QoQ) 2QFY17
% chg (yoy)
Net sales
4354
3621
20.2
3714
17.3
Investment Period
12 months
Other income
93
91
2.4
82
13.5
Operating profit
1036
765
35.4
869
19.2
Stock Info
Interest
17
17
2.4
18
(1.5)
Sector
Pharm aceutical
Adj. Net profit
781
519
50.7
606
29.0
Market Cap (` cr)
41,463
Net debt (` cr)
3,265
Source: Company, Angel Research
Beta
1.3
52 Week High / Low
895/504
For 2QFY2018, Aurobindo Pharma (APL) posted numbers slightly higher than
Avg . D a ily Vo lu m e
67,116
expected sales, OPM and net profit fronts. On sales front, the company posted
Face Value (`)
1
sales of `4,354cr (v/s. `4,200cr expected) v/s. `3,715cr in 2QFY2017, a yoy growth
BSE Sensex
33,343
Nifty
10,284
of 17.3%. On the operating front, the EBITDA margin was almost flat at 23.8% (v/s.
Reuters Code
ARBN.BO
25.4% expected) v/s. 23.4% in 2QFY2017. Consequently, the Adj. PAT came in at
Bloomberg Code
[email protected]
`781cr (v/s. `730cr expected) v/s. `606cr in 2QFY2017, a yoy growth of 29.0%. We
maintain our Buy rating on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Prom oters
51.9
Results better than expectation: On sales front, the company posted sales of
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
17.2
`4,354cr (v/s. `4,200cr expected) v/s. ` v/s. `3,715cr in 2QFY2017, posting a yoy
FII / NRIs / OCBs
20.1
Indian Public / Others
10.8
growth of 17.3%. The formulation sales (`3,663cr) posted a yoy growth of 22.0%,
while API (`772cr) posted a yoy growth of 0.4%. Europe (`1,357cr) posted a yoy
Abs . (% )
3m 1yr
3 yr
growth of 37.0%, while company’s key market USA (`2,099cr) posted a growth of
Sensex
6.7
27.1
18.3
21.0% yoy. On the operating front, the EBITDA margin came in at 23.8% (v/s.
Aurobindo
1.8
(0.7)
27.8
25.4% expected) v/s. 23.4% in 2QFY2017. Consequently, the Adj. PAT came in at
`781cr (v/s. `730cr expected) v/s. `606cr in 2QFY2017, a yoy growth of 29.0%.
3-year daily price chart
Outlook and valuation: We estimate the company’s net sales to log a CAGR of
1,000
14.5% over FY2017-19E to `19,478cr on the back of US formulations, which will
800
be supplemented through the acquisitions of the Western European formulation
600
businesses of Actavis and US’ Natrol. The acquisitions have also led APL to
become a >US$2bn sales company, with ~80% of sales being accounted by
400
formulations. We recommend a Buy rating with a target price of `823.
200
0
Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Net sales
13,710
14,845
17,086
19,478
Source: Company, Angel Research
% chg
13.8
8.3
15.1
14.0
Adj. Net profit
2,025
2,302
2,611
3,004
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
% chg
25.1
13.7
13.5
15.0
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6806
EPS (`)
34.7
39.4
44.7
51.4
[email protected]
EBITDA margin (%)
20.3
21.5
22.1
22.0
P/E (x)
20.4
18.0
15.8
13.8
RoE (%)
32.5
27.6
24.7
22.7
RoCE (%)
22.9
23.1
24.3
25.3
P/BV (x)
5.7
4.4
3.5
2.8
EV/Sales (x)
3.3
3.0
2.5
2.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
16.2
13.8
11.5
9.6
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of November 17, 2017
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Aurobindo Pharma | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 2QFY2018 performance (Consolidated)
% chg
% chg
Y/E March (` cr)
2QFY2018 1QFY2018
% chg (qoq) 2QFY2017
1HFY2018 1HFY2017
(yoy)
(yoy)
Net sales
4,354
3,621
20.2
3,714
17.3
7,975
7,418
7.5
Other income
93
91
2.4
82
13.5
184
176
4.8
Total income
4,447
3,712
19.8
3,797
17.1
8,159
7,594
7.4
Gross profit
2,586
2,123
21.8
2,085
24.0
4,709
4,101
14.8
Gross margins
59.4
58.6
56.1
59.1
55.3
Operating profit
1,036
765
35.4
869
19.2
1,801
1,694
6.3
OPM (%)
23.8
21.1
12.6
23.4
22.6
22.8
Interest
17
17
2.4
18
(1.5)
34
38
(10.6)
Dep & amortisation
132
131
0.7
110
19.9
263
216
21.6
PBT
979
708
38.3
823
18.9
1,687
1,615
4.5
Provision for taxation
198
191
3.6
218
(9.2)
389
425
(8.4)
Net profit
781
518
50.7
606
29.0
1,298
1,190
9.1
Less : Exceptional items (gains)/loss
-
-
-
-
-
-
MI & share in associates
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
-
PAT after Exceptional items
781
519
50.7
606
29.0
1,299
1,191
9.2
Adjusted PAT
781
519
50.7
606
29.0
1,299
1,191
9.2
EPS (`)
13.3
8.9
10.4
22.2
20.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: Actual v/s Estimate
(` cr)
Actual
Estimate
Variation %
Net sales
4354
4200
3.7
Other operating income
93
82
13.5
Operating profit
1036
1068
(3.0)
Tax
198
270
(26.8)
Adj. Net profit
781
730
7.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue down 17.2% yoy; marginally higher than our expectation: On sales
front, the company posted sales of `4,354cr (v/s. `4,200cr expected) v/s. `3,714cr in
2QFY2017, a yoy growth of 17.3%. The formulation sales (`3,663cr) posted a yoy
growth of 22.0%, while API (`772cr) posted a yoy growth of 0.4%. The US business
contributed 47.4% to the gross sales.
In the formulation segment, the US (`2,099cr) posted a yoy growth of 21.0%, while
Europe & ROW (`1,357cr) grew 37.0%. ARV (`208cr) posted a yoy de-growth of
25.5%. In USA, on constant currency basis, sales grew by 25.9% yoy. Overall,
formulations now contribute around 82.8% of sales, while the balance is accounted
by APIs. The company has 463 approved ANDAs including 40 tentative approvals.
In Europe, on constant currency basis, sales grew by 35.3% yoy. As on 30th
September, 2017, it has transferred manufacturing of 74 products from Europe to
India.
During 2QFY2018, the company filed 21 ANDAs with the USFDA, i.e. 11 in the oral
category and 10 in the injectable category. The company received 2 ANDA
November 20,2017
2
Aurobindo Pharma | 2QFY2018 Result Update
approvals from the USFDA including 3 tentative approvals during the quarter. As
on 30th September 2017, on a cumulative basis, the company filed 463 ANDAs with
USFDA and received approval for 294 ANDAs including 40 tentative approvals. The
company has launched 8 products including 2 injectables during the quarter.
Exhibit 3: Sales break-up (Consolidated)
(` cr)
2QFY2018 1QFY2018
% chg (qoq) 2QFY2017
% chg (yoy) 1HFY2018 1HFY2017
% chg
Formulations
3663
3051
19.8
3004
22.0
6714
6037
11.2
US
2099
1695
23.8
1735
21.0
3794
3439
10.3
Europe & ROW
1357
1112
22.1
990
37.0
2468
2016
22.4
ARV
208
245
(15.2)
279
(25.5)
452
582
(22.3)
API
772
625
23.5
769
0.4
1397
1503
(7.1)
SSP
514
409
25.8
511
0.6
923
1006
(8.2)
Cephs
258
216
19.1
258
0.0
474
497
(4.7)
Total Sales
4426
3676
20.4
3775
17.2
8111
7540
7.6
Source: Company, Angel Research
OPM comes in at 23.8%: On the operating front, the EBITDA margin came in at
23.8% (v/s. 25.4% expected) v/s. 23.4% in 2QFY2017. The gross margin came in at
59.4% in 2QFY2018 v/s. 56.1% in 2QFY2017. Other expense and staff cost were
higher, posting a yoy growth of 30.7% and 21.6% respectively.
Exhibit 4: OPM Trend
25
23.8
24
23.4
23
22
21.1
21
21.7
20
19
18
18.5
17
16
15
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
4QFY2017
1QFY2018
2QFY2018
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net profit marginally higher than estimate: Consequently, the Adj. PAT came in
at `781cr (v/s. `730cr expected) v/s. `606cr in 2QFY2017, a yoy growth of 29.0%. The
lower tax outgo aided the net profit growth. Tax as a percentage of PBT was 20%
v/s 26% of PBT in 2QFY2017.
November 20,2017
3
Aurobindo Pharma | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 5: Adj. net profit
900
781
800
700
606
579
600
532
519
500
(`cr)
400
300
200
100
0
2QFY2017 3QFY2017 4QFY2017 1QFY2018 2QFY2018
Source: Company, Angel Research
Management takeaways
US has witnessed 10-11% yoy and ~5% qoq price erosion.
R&D as a percent of sales to be 4.5% of sales in FY2018E.
Tax rate guidance of ~25-26% in FY2018.
Capex guidance of US$120-130m for FY2018.
Recommendation rationale
US and ARV formulation segments - the key drivers for base business:
APL’s business will primarily be driven by the US and ARV segments on the
formulation front. The company has been an aggressive filer in the US market
with 421 ANDAs filed until 3QFY2017. Amongst peers, APL has emerged as one
of the top ANDA filers. The company has aggressively filed ANDAs in the last
few years and is now geared to reap benefits, even though most of the filings
are for highly competitive products. Going ahead, with US$70bn going off-
patent in the US over the next three years, we believe APL is well placed to tap
this opportunity being one of the largest generic suppliers. The company
enjoys high market share, as it is fully integrated in all its products apart from
having a larger product basket. Also, the company plans to launch
18
injectables in the next 2 years, which would drive its growth and profitability.
The US revenue has grown at a CAGR of 31% over FY2009-2015 to `4,832cr.
Going forward, the US business of the company is expected to post a CAGR of
15% over FY2016-18E.
Acquisitions to augment growth and improve sales mix: APL announced
the signing of a binding offer to acquire commercial operations in seven
Western European countries from Actavis. The net sales from the acquired
businesses were around EUR320mn in 2013 with a growth rate of over 10%
yoy. With this, the European sales of the company would now be ~EUR400mn.
Although these businesses are currently loss-making (by around EUR20mn),
APL expects them to return to profitability in combination with its vertically
integrated platform and existing commercial infrastructure.
November 20,2017
4
Aurobindo Pharma | 2QFY2018 Result Update
The acquisition will make APL one of the leading Indian pharmaceutical
companies in Europe with a position in the top 10 in several key markets, which
it plans to leverage to supply or widen its product portfolio through
introduction of its own products, especially high margin products like
injectiables.
Also, in December 2014, Aurobindo USA spent US$132.5mn to acquire the
assets of Natrol with an agreement to take on certain liabilities. With this
acquisition, the company gets an entry into the nutraceutical markets.
Aurobindo USA believes that Natrol is an excellent strategic fit and provides
the right platform for creating a fully-integrated OTC platform in the USA and
other international markets. Natrol, which manufactures and sells nutritional
supplements in USA and other international markets, provides Aurobindo with-
strong brand reputation and presence in a variety of attractive supplement
markets. Natrol has a proven performance in the mass market, health food and
specialty channels, and has existing long term relationships with key
distribution and retail partners. It addresses a broad range of consumers and
has an effective growth strategy to expand market penetration.
Outlook and valuation
We estimate the company’s net sales to log a CAGR of 14.5% over FY2017-19E to
`19,478cr on the back of US, which accounts for the largest portion of its product
pipeline. This, along with the recent acquisitions of the Western European
formulation businesses of Actavis and US’ Natrol, will lead APL to become a
>US$2bn sales company, with ~80% of sales being accounted by formulations. We
maintain our Buy rating on the stock.
Exhibit 6: Key assumptions
FY2018E
FY2019E
Sales Growth (%)
15.1
14.0
Operating Margins (%)
22.1
22.0
Capex (`cr)
500
500
Source: Company, Angel Research
November 20,2017
5
Aurobindo Pharma | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 7: One-year forward PE
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
5x
10x
15x
20x
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8: Recommendation summary
Company
Reco
CMP Tgt. price Upside
FY2019E
FY17-19E
FY2019E
PE
EV/EBITDA
RoCE
RoE
(`)
(`)
%
EV/Sales (x)
CAGR in EPS (%)
(x)
(x)
(%)
(%)
Alembic Pharma
Buy
514
600
16.8
21.5
2.5
12.9
5.7
20.6
18.4
Aurobindo Pharma Buy
708
823
16.3
13.8
2.1
9.6
14.2
25.3
22.7
Cadila Healthcare
Reduce
446
411
(7.9)
21.7
3.5
17.3
18.9
16.5
22.2
Cipla
Sell
609
426
(24.1)
25.0
2.7
16.0
39.3
10.9
13.1
Dr Reddy's
Reduce
2,325
2,040
(12.3)
22.8
2.8
13.7
18.5
10.8
12.4
Dishman Pharma
Under Review
301
-
-
19.3
2.7
11.5
23.3
4.5
4.4
GSK Pharma
Sell
2,511
2000
(20.4)
51.4
6.4
37.7
19.3
25.8
23.5
Indoco Remedies
Sell
267
153
(42.8)
16.7
2.1
14.9
16.2
10.1
14.5
Ipca labs
Neutral
529
-
-
22.1
1.7
11.2
24.7
12.4
11.0
Lupin
Buy
829
1,091
31.6
16.7
2.1
9.7
(6.6)
13.7
13.7
Sanofi India*
Neutral
4,485
-
-
27.4
3.2
17.1
12.8
25.8
27.5
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
517
558
7.9
20.9
3.5
15.4
(12.9)
12.3
15.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year ending
November 20,2017
6
Aurobindo Pharma | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Company background
Aurobindo Pharma manufactures generic pharmaceuticals and APIs. The
company’s manufacturing facilities are approved by several leading regulatory
agencies like the USFDA, UK MHRA, WHO, Health Canada, MCC South Africa and
ANVISA Brazil among others. The company’s robust product portfolio is spread
over six major therapeutic/product areas encompassing antibiotics,
antiretrovirals, CVS, CNS, gastroenterological, and anti-allergics. The company has
acquired the generic business of Actavis, which has made it a US$2bn company and
a leading company in Europe. With this acquisition, formulations now contribute
around 80% to the company’s sales (as in FY2016).
November 20,2017
7
Aurobindo Pharma | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Profit & loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Gross sales
8,198
12,221
13,937
15,084
17,346
19,775
Less: Excise duty
159
178
227
239
260
297
Net Sales
8,038
12,043
13,710
14,845
17,086
19,478
Other operating income
61
77
245
245
245
245
Total operating income
8,100
12,121
13,955
15,090
17,331
19,723
% chg
38.3
49.6
15.1
8.1
14.9
13.8
Total Expenditure
5,968
9,557
10,931
11,656
13,310
15,193
Net Raw Materials
3,606
5,506
6,162
6,434
7,005
7,986
Other Mfg costs
804
1,204
1,371
1,484
1,709
1,948
Personnel
832
1,302
1,543
1,768
2,033
2,338
Other
726
1,545
1,855
1,969
2,563
2,922
EBITDA
2,071
2,486
2,779
3,189
3,776
4,285
% chg
153.5
20.1
11.8
14.8
18.4
13.5
(% of Net Sales)
25.8
20.6
20.3
21.5
22.1
22.0
Depreciation& Amort.
313
333
392
428
551
586
EBIT
1,758
2,154
2,386
2,762
3,225
3,699
% chg
209.5
22.5
10.8
15.7
16.8
14.7
(% of Net Sales)
21.9
17.9
17.4
18.6
18.9
19.0
Interest & other Charges
108
84
93
67
112
60
Other Income
23
81
205
121
121
121
(% of PBT)
1.3
3.6
7.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
Share in profit of Asso.
-
-
-
-
-
-
Recurring PBT
1,735
2,227
2,744
3,061
3,479
4,004
% chg
222.7
28.4
23.2
11.5
13.7
15.1
Extraordinary Exp./(Inc.)
203.1
59.6
-
-
-
-
PBT (reported)
1,532
2,168
2,744
3,061
3,479
4,004
Tax
363.5
596.6
720.7
759.6
869.9
1,001.1
(% of PBT)
23.7
27.5
26.3
24.8
25.0
25.0
PAT (reported)
1,168
1,571
2,024
2,301
2,610
3,003
Less: Minority int. (MI)
(4)
(5)
(2)
(0)
(2)
(1)
PAT after MI (reported)
1,172
1,576
2,025
2,302
2,611
3,004
ADJ. PAT
1,333
1,619
2,025
2,302
2,611
3,004
% chg
208.6
21.5
25.1
13.7
13.5
15.0
(% of Net Sales)
14.6
13.1
14.8
15.5
15.3
15.4
Basic EPS (`)
22.8
27.7
34.6
39.3
44.6
51.3
% chg
208.6
21.5
25.1
13.7
13.5
15.0
November 20,2017
8
Aurobindo Pharma | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Balance sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital
29
29
59
59
59
59
Share Application Money
-
-
-
-
-
-
Reserves & Surplus
3,721
5,127
7,229
9,313
11,754
14,587
Shareholders Funds
3,750
5,156
7,287
9,372
11,812
14,646
Minority Interest
26
26
3
2
0
(0)
Long-term provisions
9
24
23
22
22
22
Total Loans
3,769
3,864
4,415
3,084
2,500
500
Deferred Tax Liability
205
211
(182)
(118)
(118)
(118)
Total Liabilities
7,760
9,280
11,546
12,362
14,194
15,027
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block
4,107
6,095
6,093
7,625
8,125
8,625
Less: Acc. Depreciation
1,461
1,794
2,186
2,614
3,165
3,751
Net Block
2,645
3,752
3,907
5,011
4,959
4,873
Capital Work-in-Progress
310
310
310
310
310
310
Goodwill
76
64
812
971
971
971
Investments
20
20
123
246
246
246
Long-term loans and adv.
789
486
269
338
338
338
Current Assets
5,631
8,279
10,294
9,206
11,651
13,169
Cash
179
469
834
513
492
674
Loans & Advances
789
692
831
409
1,625
1,626
Other
4,664
7,118
8,629
8,284
9,534
10,869
Current liabilities
1,730
3,634
4,168
3,720
4,281
4,881
Net Current Assets
3,901
4,645
6,127
5,487
7,370
8,289
Mis. Exp. not written off
18
5
-
-
-
-
Total Assets
7,760
9,280
11,546
12,362
14,194
15,027
November 20,2017
9
Aurobindo Pharma | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Cash flow statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E FY2019E
Profit before tax
1,532
2,168
2,744
3,061
3,479
4,004
Depreciation
313
333
392
428
551
586
(Inc)/Dec in Working Capital
(457)
(757)
(1,333)
388
(1,905)
(736)
Less: Other income
23
81
205
121
121
121
Direct taxes paid
(363)
(597)
(721)
(760)
(870)
(1,001)
Cash Flow from Operations
1,001
1,066
877
2,996
1,135
2,732
(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets
(455)
(1,989)
3
(1,532)
(500)
(500)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments
(2)
-
103
123
-
-
Other income
23
81
205
121
121
121
Cash Flow from Investing
(435)
(1,908)
311
(1,288)
(379)
(379)
Issue of Equity
-
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
385
94
552
(1,331)
(584)
(2,000)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(102)
(171)
(171)
(171)
(171)
(171)
Others
(879)
1,209
(1,159)
(527)
(22)
-
Cash Flow from Financing
(596)
1,133
(778)
(2,029)
(777)
(2,171)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
(30)
291
410
(321)
(21)
182
Opening Cash balances
208
179
469
834
513
492
Closing Cash balances
179
469
834
513
492
674
November 20,2017
10
Aurobindo Pharma | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Key ratios
Y/E March
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017 FY2018E FY2019E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
31.1
25.6
20.5
18.0
15.9
13.8
P/CEPS
13.9
10.8
17.1
15.2
13.1
11.5
P/BV
5.5
4.0
5.7
4.4
3.5
2.8
Dividend yield (%)
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
EV/Sales
3.0
2.0
3.3
3.0
2.5
2.1
EV/EBITDA
11.7
9.7
16.2
13.8
11.5
9.6
EV / Total Assets
3.1
2.6
3.9
3.6
3.1
2.7
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
22.8
27.7
34.6
39.3
44.6
51.3
EPS (fully diluted)
22.8
27.7
34.6
39.3
44.6
51.3
Cash EPS
51.0
65.4
41.3
46.6
54.0
61.4
DPS
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Book Value
128.8
176.6
124.5
160.1
201.9
250.3
Dupont Analysis
EBIT margin
21.9
17.9
17.4
18.6
18.9
19.0
Tax retention ratio
76.3
72.5
73.7
75.2
75.0
75.0
Asset turnover (x)
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.4
ROIC (Post-tax)
20.1
19.2
18.3
18.7
19.2
20.0
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
2.3
1.6
1.7
1.3
3.0
3.0
Leverage (x)
1.1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
Operating ROE
39.5
33.4
27.9
25.4
22.8
21.4
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax)
25.4
25.3
22.9
23.1
24.3
25.3
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
28.5
27.6
26.5
27.4
28.1
29.0
ROE
41.9
36.4
32.5
27.6
24.7
22.7
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
2.2
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.4
Inventory / Sales (days)
49
90
97
80
88
88
Receivables (days)
95
93
93
76
77
77
Payables (days)
73
114
114
96
96
96
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)
145
119
124
124
125
134
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
1.0
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.2
(0.0)
Net debt to EBITDA
1.7
1.4
1.3
0.8
0.5
(0.0)
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
16.3
25.5
25.8
41.4
28.9
61.6
November 20,2017
11
Aurobindo Pharma | 2QFY2018 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Aurobindo Pharma
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
November 20,2017
12