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UltraTech Cement Ltd Research Report - 28th Jan 2016

Cement | Published on Jan 27th 2016

IT

UltraTech Cement (UltraTech)’s 3QFY2016 numbers have come in better than our expectations on the top-line and operational fronts. The company’s net sales rose by 4.7% yoy to Rs5,747cr, aided by better than expected volume growth of 7.1% yoy. Blended realization was under pressure, down by 2.3% yoy, and was slightly lower than our estimate. The EBITDA increased by 23% yoy to Rs1,044cr and the same was above our estimate of Rs975cr. The EBITDA margin came in at 18.2%, also above our estimate of 17.3%, backed by strong operational efficiency. The PAT came in at Rs509cr, up 39.6% yoy, which is above our estimate of Rs435cr, driven by margin expansion. EBITDA margin healthy at 18.2%: For 3QFY2016, UltraTech reported an EBITDA growth of 23% yoy to Rs1,044cr, as against our estimate of Rs975cr. The strong EBIDTA performance was led by operational efficiency. The operating cost/tonne declined by 4.6% yoy to Rs4,055, led by 13.9% yoy decline in power & fuel cost/tonne, largely due to softening pet coke prices. Higher pet coke usage at 74% vs 65% in the sequential previous quarter helped savings in power & fuel cost. The EBITDA margin increased by 280bp yoy to 18.2% and was above our expectation of 17.3%. The blended EBITDA/tonne came in at Rs900, an increase of 16.1% yoy. Outlook and valuation: We expect UltraTech to post a 13.6% CAGR in its topline on back of new capacity expansion and healthy expected realization over FY2015-17 period. The company’s bottom-line is expected to grow at a CAGR of 28% yoy over the same period. At the current levels, the stock is trading at 13x EV/EBITDA and at an EV/tonne of US$165 on FY2017 capacity. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs3,107.

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Accumulate

CMP 2,755
Target Price 3,107
Investment Period12 Months

Stock Info

MCAP BSE (Rs in Cr)98,644.06
MCAP NSE (Rs in Cr)98,897.92
P/E (x)37.04
EPS (Rs.)97.03
BV (Rs.)826.34
Div Yield (%)0.26
FV (Rs.)10.00
P/BV (x)4.28
EV/Sales (x)4.18
EV/EBITDA (x)21.91

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoter62.0
Foreign22.0
Institution6.0
Public & Others6.0
Corporate4.0
Grand Total100.0

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