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Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd Research Report - 31st Jan 2016

Power | Published on Jan 29th 2016

IT

For 3QFY2016, Power Grid Corporation of India (PWGR) reported a strong 23% yoy increase in transmission revenues to `5,143cr (5.5% ahead of our estimate of `4,925cr), on account of higher than expected capitalisation. Capitalisation for the quarter stood at `17,207cr, led by the commissioning of the Biswanath Chariyali – Agra HVDC transmission line. Even on exclusion of this line, total capitalisation stood at ~`9,000cr, well ahead of our expectation of `5,126cr. Capex incurred during the quarter, at `5,368cr, was also ahead of our estimate of `4,882cr. We raise our FY2016 capitalisation estimate to ~`32,850cr, as against ~`22,000cr earlier. Increased operating efficiency and higher capitalisation helped the company in improving its EBITDA margin by 213bp yoy to 88.7%. The EBITDA for the quarter came in at `4,797cr as against our estimate of `4,482cr. The Management maintained its capex guidance of `22,500cr and `22,550cr for FY2016 and FY2017, respectively. Outlook and valuation We raise our estimates marginally to factor in the higher-than-expected capitalisation in 3QFY2016. We expect PWGR to report a revenue CAGR of ~17% (vs 16% earlier) and the EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 19% (vs 16% earlier) over FY2015-17E. At the current market price of `148, the stock trades at a P/BV of 1.8x and 1.6x its FY2016E and FY2017E BV of `82 and `92, respectively. We retain our target price of `165 on the stock, based on ~1.8x FY2017E P/BV, implying a 12% upside from the current levels and have an Accumulate rating on the stock.

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Accumulate

CMP 148
Target Price 165
Investment Period12 Months

Stock Info

MCAP BSE (Rs in Cr)95,450.36
MCAP NSE (Rs in Cr)95,450.36
P/E (x)13.86
EPS (Rs.)13.16
BV (Rs.)88.93
Div Yield (%)1.27
FV (Rs.)10.00
P/BV (x)2.05
EV/Sales (x)9.82
EV/EBITDA (x)11.32

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoter58.0
Foreign27.0
Institution8.0
Public & Others4.0
Corporate3.0
Grand Total100.0

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