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Mirza International Ltd Research Report - 01st Sep 2016

Miscellaneous | Published on Sep 01st 2016

IT

Mirza International Ltd (MIL) is engaged in manufacturing and marketing leather and leather footwear. It exports its products to the European Union, Germany, the United Kingdom, the United States, Italy, and France among other geographies. Its brands include Red Tape and Oaktrak. Strong growth in domestic branded segment to drive overall growth: In the branded domestic segment, we expect the company to report a ~24% CAGR over FY2016-18E to Rs346cr. We anticipate strong growth for the company on the back of (a) the company’s wide distribution reach through its 1,000+ outlets including 120 exclusive brand outlets (EBOs) in 35+ cities and the same are expected to reach 200 over the next 2-3 years and (b) strong branding (Red Tape) in the shoes segment. Further, MIL is enhancing its brand visibility owing to higher ad spend in FY2017. MIL has doubled its ad spend over the last five years; ad spends as a proportion of branded product sales now stand at 9-10%. Strong global footprint: MIL’s major export revenue comes from the UK (73%), followed by the US (14%) and the balance from ROW. Export constitutes ~75% of the company’s total revenue. The company is reasonably insulated in terms of client concentration. Its clients include ASDA, River Island, Matalan, ASOS, Elan Polo, and Steve Madden among others. In the UK, the company has a market share of ~25% in the men’s leather footwear mid-segment category. We expect the company to report healthy growth over the next 2-3 years on back of recovery in the UK market, strong growth in the US market and with it tapping newer international geographies like the Middle East countries. Genesis Footwear merger to boost margins: In FY2016, the company acquired Genesis Footwear which has a better margin profile than it. The deal resulted in MIL’s EPS increasing by ~4% and ROE improving from 15.9% to 17.5%. Further, due to this merger, the company’s capacity has increased from 5.4mn to 6.4mn units. During FY2016, the company reported net sales of Rs90cr, EBITDA margin of ~29%, and PAT of Rs20cr. Outlook and Valuation: We expect MIL to report a net revenue CAGR of ~11% to ~Rs1,148cr over FY2016-18E on back of strong growth in domestic branded sales (owing to aggressive ad spend and addition in the number of EBOs & multi-brand outlets [MBOs]) and healthy export revenues. On the bottom-line front, we expect a CAGR of ~11% to Rs97cr over the same period on the back of margin improvement. At the current market price of Rs84, the stock trades at a PE of 12.2x and 10.5x its FY2017E and FY2018E EPS of Rs6.9 and Rs8.0, respectively. We initiate coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation and target price of Rs113 based on 14x FY2018E EPS, indicating an upside of ~34% from the current levels.

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CMP 84
Target Price 113
Investment Period12 Months

Stock Info

MCAP BSE (Rs in Cr)957.03
MCAP NSE (Rs in Cr)960.04
P/E (x)11.89
EPS (Rs.)6.69
BV (Rs.)40.74
Div Yield (%)0.63
FV (Rs.)2.00
P/BV (x)1.95
EV/Sales (x)1.26
EV/EBITDA (x)8.50

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoter74.0
Public & Others25.0
Foreign1.0
Corporate0.0
Institution0.0
Grand Total100.0

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