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Mahanagar Gas Limited IPO Views - 20th Jun 2016

Oil & Gas | Published on Jun 20th 2016

IT

Company background: Mahanagar Gas Ltd (MGL) is the third largest city gas distribution (CGD) company in India with a history of 20+ years of natural gas distribution in Mumbai and adjoining areas. MGL is promoted by GAIL and British Gas. As of FY2016-end, MGL served 0.47mn vehicles through its 4,646km of pipeline and 188 compressed natural gas (CNG) filling stations. It supplies piped natural gas (PNG) to 0.86mn domestic households, 2,800 commercial consumers and 60 industrial consumers. MGL is the sole CGD operator for Mumbai, Thane, Navi Mumbai, and Raigad districts. Mumbai and adjoining areas are currently under penetrated (CNG is served to 0.47mn of targeted 2.15mn motor vehicles; PNG is served to ~0.9mn of targeted 2.71mn households). MGL enjoys a monopolistic position in its markets owing to (1) entry barriers for new players in the form of regulatory restrictions, (2) parentage support which assures a majority of its gas requirement from GAIL, and (3) huge pipeline infrastructure which continues to grow. We expect MGL to report 7-8% volume growth over the next few quarters. 86% of MGL’s volumes are accounted by its CNG and domestic PNG business, which have a stable outlook. Considering the government’s long-term plans to phase out LPG subsidy amongst affluent classes, CNG/domestic PNG penetration in Mumbai at ~22/28% levels, coupled with assured 86% of gas supplies on cheaper rates on APM and PMT prices (currently APM price is at $3.06/mmbtu), there exists scope for economies of scale to come into play. Valuation: On considering (1) almost similar growth potential as that of the industry peer Indraprastha Gas (IGL), (2) 22%+ RoE levels as reported in the last 6 years, (3) debt free status, (4) yearly cash flow generating potential of Rs200cr+, (5) strong dividend payout ratio (Management has guided for 35% dividend payout; translates to ~4% dividend yield), the issue at 12.9x PE FY2016 (vs peers trading at over 18.0x) is attractively priced. We recommend SUBSCIRBE to Mahanagar Gas IPO.

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