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ITC Ltd Research Report - 28th Jan 2016

FMCG | Published on Jan 27th 2016

IT

ITC posted a poor set of numbers for 3QFY2016, both on the top-line and bottom-line fronts. The top-line was subdued due to lower growth in Cigarettes & Hotel businesses and de-growth in Agri business, which in turn resulted in a lower profitability of the company. Key highlights: ITC’s net sales for the quarter grew by 2.6% yoy to Rs9,177cr. The Cigarettes business posted a 5.7% yoy growth in net sales to Rs4,380cr, aided by price hikes. A muted sales growth in the Cigarettes business resulted in the segment posting a 3.4% yoy growth in its EBIT. The FMCG (others) business, which posted a 7.1% yoy growth in net sales to Rs2,478cr, posted an EBIT level profit of Rs19cr. Further, the Paperboards and Packaging division posted a growth of 5.1% yoy and 12.7% yoy in revenue and segmental EBIT, respectively. The Hotels business posted a 4.5% yoy growth in its top-line, while it reported a de-growth at the EBIT level. The Agri business posted a de-growth of 7.3% yoy in revenue, while its EBIT de-grew by 3.1% on a yoy basis. Overall, the company’s OPM expanded by 55bp yoy to 39.3%, owing to lower raw material costs (down 254bp yoy as a % of sales). Outlook and valuation: We expect ITC to report a top-line and bottom-line CAGR of 4.5% and 5.0% respectively over FY2015-18E. At the current market price, the stock is trading at 22.2x FY2018E EPS. We recommend buy on the stock with a target price of Rs359.

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CMP 310
Target Price 359
Investment Period12 Months

Stock Info

MCAP BSE (Rs in Cr)276,806.75
MCAP NSE (Rs in Cr)276,927.94
P/E (x)27.92
EPS (Rs.)8.18
BV (Rs.)32.33
Div Yield (%)2.47
FV (Rs.)1.00
P/BV (x)7.07
EV/Sales (x)6.85
EV/EBITDA (x)17.86

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Foreign52.0
Institution35.0
Public & Others9.0
Corporate4.0
Promoter0.0
Grand Total100.0

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