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Hindalco Industries Ltd Research Report - 21st Jan 2016

Metals | Published on Nov 20th 2015


For 2QFY2016, Hindalco Industries (Hindalco)’ standalone revenues came in 3% ahead of our expectations, but the EBITDA disappointed, coming in 16% below our estimate. Net sales increased 4.3% yoy to Rs8,841cr, vs our expectation of a 2.5% yoy decline, led by strong increase in aluminium volumes and higher credits from by-products in the copper division. The strong growth in volumes was diluted substantially by the sharp slide in commodity prices. Aluminum segment revenue increased 26% yoy whereas copper segment revenue declined 10% yoy. Copper volume growth also partially offset the decline in realizations. Sharp jump in employee and other expenses resulted in the EBITDA margin coming in 180bp below our expectations at 6.8%. The EBITDA however increased 29% yoy to Rs603cr, led by lower than expected material costs. Depreciation and finance costs jumped sharply yoy and came in marginally ahead of our expectation. However, a sharp jump in other income on account of dividend received from subsidiaries and a one-off of Rs119cr, led the net profit to increase by 31% yoy to Rs103cr, well ahead of our expectation of Rs57cr. Outlook and valuation: We expect aluminium prices to remain under pressure led by the huge oversupply situation and the Chinese slowdown. Pressure on realizations would continue to offset benefits from volume growth in the aluminium business. The stock is currently trading at EV/EBITDA of 8x on an FY2017E basis and the valuations are currently looking expensive. We remain Neutral on the stock.

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CMP 78
Target Price
Investment Period12 Months

Stock Info

MCAP BSE (Rs in Cr)33,177.25
MCAP NSE (Rs in Cr)33,197.90
P/E (x)41.73
EPS (Rs.)3.85
BV (Rs.)179.49
Div Yield (%)0.62
FV (Rs.)1.00
P/BV (x)0.90
EV/Sales (x)1.05
EV/EBITDA (x)11.39

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Public & Others15.0
Grand Total100.0

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