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GMDC Research Report - 16th Dec 2015

Metals | Published on Apr 08th 2013

IT

GMDC beats CIL in terms of efficiency, volume growth and ability to take price hikes. Despite these factors, GMDC is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 3.3x FY2015E, compared to CIL, which is trading at a multiple of 4.4x, which is unwarranted in our view. GMDC ticks most boxes for a long-term view: A virtual monopoly with proven ability to increase sales volume and prices available at an inexpensive valuation. The key catalysts for the stock are likely to be: 1) lignite price hikes, 2) regulatory approvals for brownfield expansions, and 3) commencement of production from Umarsar mines. We value GMDC at an EV/EBITDA of 4.5x FY2015E with a target price of Rs213 and initiate coverage with a Buy rating.

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CMP 161
Target Price 213
Investment Period12 Months

Stock Info

MCAP BSE (Rs in Cr)3,222.93
MCAP NSE (Rs in Cr)3,218.16
P/E (x)11.30
EPS (Rs.)8.97
BV (Rs.)105.87
Div Yield (%)2.96
FV (Rs.)2.00
P/BV (x)0.96
EV/Sales (x)3.83
EV/EBITDA (x)13.99

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoter74.0
Institution12.0
Public & Others9.0
Foreign3.0
Corporate2.0
Grand Total100.0

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